???????????? While the deputies of the State Duma are extinguishing the fire with the riots of the Wildberries pick-up point, Tatiana Bakalchuk’s company is wrapping up a new “gift” for the parliamentarians and authorities of the Moscow region. Another riot at the suggestion of the “berries” may well flare up in Pushkino, near Moscow, where, against the will of the inhabitants of the Klyazma microdistrict, the marketplace is building a giant sorting complex for 5,000 jobs. All last year, local activists fought with the company of Tatyana Bakalchuk. They launched a petition (collected more than 1,200 signatures), invited Wildberry representatives to meetings (their “berries” were ignored), sent letters to the governor, State Duma deputies, and even spoke at a meeting of the City District Council of Deputies. All to no avail. The only result – in December last year, the head of the city. Pushkinsky Maxim Krasnotsvetov, under the siege of social activists, squeezed out of himself: “the district administration does not support the Wildberries company in the construction of this warehouse complex.” As it turned out, the local authorities do not support the construction only in words, since work has resumed on the site of the future Wildberries logistics hub. The site on the bank of the Klyazma River, where Bakalchuk is building sorting, is located in close proximity to residential buildings. This is the land of the Federal Property Management Agency, which was leased to Wildberries for 49 years. The dissatisfaction of the residents of a quiet microdistrict is caused not only by the prospect of a neighborhood with a warehouse, to which trucks will drive around the clock, and loading and unloading operations will be carried out on its territory. The main concern is the forthcoming influx of migrants. It’s no secret that visitors are the main workforce in all Wildberries warehouses. The future sorting is designed for 5,000 jobs, while the population of the microdistrict itself is only 3,500 inhabitants. It is easy to predict what the life of Klyazma will turn into with the advent of a new object. As in the story with the rebellion of the Wildberries partners, the conflict in Pushkino has a prehistory. Like the owners of the pickup point, the residents of Klyazma have already tried to solve the problem peacefully. The WB and the local authorities, by all their actions, made it clear to the activists that the interests of Bakalchuk’s business are above the interests of the people. The story with the PVZ ended in a riot because people were driven into a situation where they could only draw attention to their problem by extreme measures. As a result, they were heard, a precedent appeared. Drawing an analogy, now the only question is whether the Klyazma residents will want to use this precedent and whether there will be someone who dares to play ahead of the curve and reassure people.
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#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Hong Kong is growing by 2%, the US and the EU are calmer, but also adding. The commodity market is mostly in the red zone. News that will affect markets: The US will no longer share data on its nuclear forces after Moscow suspended its participation in the new START treaty. The beginning of negotiations on the accession of Moldova and Ukraine to the EU will be discussed in December at the summit. The EU countries have agreed to extend for 12 months a voluntary reduction in gas consumption by 15%. The United States came out on top in terms of oil supplies to the EU, Russia’s share fell from 31% to 4%. Lenta’s revenue grew by 11.1% in 2022. Annual net profit fell by 64%. Shares are up 3%. The network “Vkusno — i dotka” finished 2022 with a loss of 11.3 billion rubles. Revenue fell 2.3%. ACRA has assigned Phosagro an AAA(RU) rating with a stable outlook. The company is placing bonds for 2 billion yuan. Today the corporate calendar is empty. @nebrexnya
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Rosprirodnadzor named the foremost shock workers: the main polluters of the Volga. The department has come up with a new approach to the search for pollutants, which industrialists really do not like: experts systematically study the state of the river, and determine who and what pollutes it throughout. The shortlist of contenders for the visits of the environmental prosecutor’s office included: Nizhny Novgorod Vodokanal ???? Gazprom Transgaz Kazan LLC ???? Innopolis (someone on the territory of the local SEZ) ???? ZVKS JSC ???? ????Sokolovsky oil pits and oil pits of the village of Ilyinka. In the Moscow region, the biggest problems arise due to storm water in Dubna. Businesses should step up and prepare for inspections. @nebrexnya
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Do not rush to close your business until you know what support you can get from the state. All information about this is in the official channel of the SME Corporation. We recommend subscribing.
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Between the battles for the import substitution of the Superjet, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov does not have time to manage a huge amount of real estate. So he passes it on to his children. And he lives in terrible conditions, in an apartment with mold. #Nonbrehnya understood the property of the official and his relatives. @nebrexnya
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The head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev, especially for #Nebrekhni, on the prospects for the rental housing market: The rental housing market is under pressure from several factors at once. First: even during the pandemic (2020), employees of many companies went to “remote work” and subsequently this format of work suited some companies, many retained a remote or hybrid work format. This has led to a decrease in demand for rental apartments. The second factor also applies to the period of the pandemic – migrants left large cities for their countries, for whom companies also rented large living spaces like hostels. Many migrants from neighboring CIS countries never returned to their previous jobs, and already in 2022 there was an outflow of workers again. The third factor: the departure of some Russians from the country in 2022, when there were two waves of emigration (in spring and autumn). Thus, the rental market lost part of the solvent client who rented apartments in the middle price segment. And the last factor is a preferential mortgage, which encouraged many to buy their own apartment, as long as bank rates allowed it. Prices are not expected to recover either in the rental market or in the real estate market, as demand stagnates. A reduction in the number of solvent population due to leaving the country, a decrease in real incomes of the population, a transition to a crisis consumption model (buy less, save more, reduce costs) – all this is unlikely to allow prices to rise in the near future. @nebrexnya
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Since the middle of last year, the government has often boasted that Russia has a low unemployment rate. In January 2023, Rosstat reported that the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.6%, hitting an all-time low. In conditions when many Western companies fled the country, and part of domestic production facilities were closed due to sanctions, this could be considered an achievement. But, as they say, there is a nuance. Last year, up to 1 million citizens left Russia. Many continued to work in Russian companies, remotely, but not all. Plus 600 thousand people – amounted to a natural decline in the population. And, finally, military losses: over the year, employment in the military sector has increased by almost 500 thousand people and in the near future the authorities want to take another 400 thousand people into the army. All these are healthy men “in the prime of life” who are literally being pulled out of the economy. At the same time, they are paid salaries much higher than the national average, although they do not produce anything. All this creates a huge burden on the country’s economy. And it explains why Russia now has low unemployment with obvious problems in all sectors. No people – no unemployment.
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Not to the plane. Oleg Tinkov is gradually returning to the normal life of a wealthy person, losing the attributes of an oligarch. The billionaire Dassault Falcon 8X aircraft was sold to the American Pacific Connection from Delaware. The amount of the transaction was not disclosed, but the price of a similar aircraft is now about $50 million. It costs $5-10 million to maintain it, which becomes an unbearable amount for Tinkov. He had to say goodbye to a stake in Tinkoff Bank for $260 million, so Falcon would eat up a significant part of this amount. But something tells #Nebrekhne that we will not see Tinkov’s Victory among the passengers. In addition, the banker, who is under the UK sanctions, would obviously like to crawl out from under them. This procedure certainly has its price, although it has never been publicly named. So the money will not interfere with the billionaire. Judging by the Friedman case, moral condemnation of Russia and a billion dollars is not enough. @nebrexnya
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#KitchenConspiracy At the invitation of colleagues from Gaz-Batiushka, we pour Prosecco and turn conspiracy into the category of analytical methods. We have repeatedly heard theses about how well done the Rotenbergs are, how they were not afraid of sanctions and began to build the Crimean bridge. From Arkady Rotenberg himself, who proudly told how he was not afraid of the “black mark of the West” and would build a bridge to remain in history. PR, by the way, also disseminated such information. Apparently, he flaunted this so often that the government forbade him to refer to sanctions in case of problems with the bridge and the rise in the cost of projects. And now the same rhetoric has been taken up by the mysterious forces behind the post of colleagues. Well, they themselves did not volunteer to defend the Rotenbergs with the theses of their press service. As conspiracy theorists, we believe that the post was forced to place reptilians from the planet Nibiru. They may even be brothers. But seriously, the question is open. The liquidation of the legal entity that built the bridge is a loud informational occasion. In the context of the explosion of the bridge, the trenches in the Crimea, the rejection of the noisy celebration of the anniversary of the annexation and other horror, it is almost a sensation. Even if the legal entity is indeed liquidated according to plan, purely politically it looks like an attempt to forget the bridge and everything connected with it. That is, a blow to a very tense nerve of society. Isn’t it more reasonable in such a situation to postpone the liquidation, and keep the legal entity without actual activity? Or reduce to a couple of teams of road workers who will sweep this bridge? So the argument about planning does not work. @nebrexnya
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Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov literally briefly retold the contents of #Nebrekhni over the past year. And do something what? How long will this situation continue? Where will today’s trends take us? How much money will the economy lose? When will she be able to return to the model of at least a sustainable existence, and not a struggle for life? The White House has no answers to these questions. And in the Kremlin, it seems, too – the recent visit of Xi Jinping ended in nothing. The Celestial Empire did not offer any sane support, but they got what they wanted. From the outside, it looks like depression and demotivation – no one knows what will happen next. @nebrexnya
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Mishustin allowed LUKOIL to face off with Prigozhin with their PMCs LUKOIL received permission from Mishustin to create its own private security organization. According to the law, all owners of the fuel and energy complex have such a right, but the security structure must satisfy a number of requirements. Fuel and energy facilities are divided into categories according to the degree of danger. The most dangerous can be guarded by organizations of the National Guard, departmental guards of Gazprom, Transneft and Rosneft, as well as private security organizations of individual subjects of the fuel and energy complex. But here’s what’s interesting. The LUKOM-A agency, which is mentioned in the government’s order, was created by LUKOIL back in the 90s. They were led by retirees from the Vympel unit. In 2010, LUKOIL withdrew from the founders of the LUKOM-A Agency. At least, such information is contained on the company’s website. The legal entity directly mentioned in the government decree, “Private security company agency Lukom-A”, was established in 2004. The founders include three individuals: Sergey Gusak (since 2014), Vladimir Vikulov, who is also the CEO and Vladimir Avtonomov (both came already in 2022). Vikulov was the founder of the Vympel Center educational organization, which positions itself as a “security school”. The organization handles good money: in 2021, it earned 1.7 billion rubles, and the profit amounted to 884 million. The organization is not listed in public procurement, and, apparently, serves only the interests of LUKOIL. Moreover, this private security company was referred to as a private army even before Wagner PMC took its place on the news agenda. In the 2010s, the organization recruited employees even to work at LUKOIL facilities in Iraq. The main question is “Lukom-A” is it already a PMC or not yet? Yes, they are not noted in the use of military aviation, but in international operations they are completely. And now the legislation gives them a little more legality in status. It is worth taking a closer look at what the Chopovites will be armed with. Otherwise, if they also have armored vehicles, we risk becoming witnesses of the most interesting business processes. For example, Alekperov will decide that Sechin has too many deposits, and red-white tanks will go to yellow-black ones. @nebrexnya
