Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 17.02.2023

#Vectors of the Day The market background is negative. The US indices are in a slight minus, Asia and the EU are more noticeable. The commodity market is looking down, oil is getting cheaper by 1.1%. News that will affect the markets: The noise around Nord Stream does not subside. Russia calls their undermining an act of international terrorism and demands that the United States prove its innocence. The presumption of innocence has ceased to work even at the level of diplomacy, since Russia is in no hurry to prove the involvement of the United States. China demands an objective investigation, but who can be objective in this matter? Balloons over the US were most likely research objects – Biden. True, whose, the president did not specify. And the alien version was beautiful. The European Commission abandoned plans to impose sanctions on the Russian nuclear sector. Rosatom is untouchable. The European Union stopped buying Russian coal and reduced oil imports from Russia by 90%. However, a significant part of the supplies simply went into the shadows. The Association of Banks of Russia proposes to increase the undeclared limit on the import of foreign currency into Russia by 10 times – up to $100,000. Cash is running out. Today: ???? RusHydro to publish financial results under RAS for 2022 ???? Unipro to publish 4Q and FY 2022 IFRS results @nebrexnya
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It is unlikely that problems will stop the hypothetical process of including Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the union state. Where one sees a problem, the other sees an opportunity. And a Russian official is an opportunity to earn money. Let us recall, for example, Marat Khusnullin, who laid the curb stone in the territories where the hostilities had not yet ended. By the way, they partially changed the flag, but with new curbs. The semi-secret package for the restoration of the destroyed regions is estimated at trillions: 3.5 trillion rubles were reserved for the LDNR alone. In Abkhazia, of course, they shot back in the 90s, during the Georgian-Abkhazian war. But since then no one has tried to put the infrastructure hell in order, so there is full scope for “creativity”. The real problem is to incorporate the local elites into the Union State. They also want to lay curbs. And preferably without guards. @nebrexnya
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Experts @nebrexnya especially for @kremlin_mother_expert What does the 10th package of sanctions promise us? Nothing special. It seems that the European legislators’ fantasy is over. We decided to further limit the export of technologies to the Russian Federation, and at the same time dual-use goods. It is not clear whether they take into account that a savvy engineer, even on a chip from a washing machine, will make Caliber fly? And a washing machine in capable hands is quite a dual-use product. Banks will also be hit. It seems that Tinkoff will be disconnected from SWIFT after all. But this, too, will not bring down the banks – those who have not yet fallen under the sanctions have been preparing for them all year. There will be no surprise effect. And about the ban on the export of Russian asphalt and rubber to Europe, perhaps, it is better to keep silent, there is a little more than a million dollars a year. A slightly serious threat is sanctions against equipment for Russian semiconductors. Processors are a very complex thing. For their production, even special sand is needed, which is far from being available everywhere in the world: even Taiwan, the world chip workshop, imports it (170 thousand tons in 2021 from China and about the same from Australia). And it is almost impossible to replace imports with more technically complex stages of production. We’ll have to remember about savvy engineers. In general, the list is modest. But this did not prevent the Russian markets from collapsing on Wednesday – the Mrsbirzhi index fell by 3%. But the package of sanctions just became a trigger. The market was very much overbought and had to go into correction according to the laws of technical analysis. In addition, investors are waiting for a message to the Federal Assembly on February 21. And this is potentially worse than any sanctions.
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IKEA was bought after all, and this is not Yevtushenkov. Four industrial sites will eventually go to the manufacturer of kitchen worktops and facades Slotex and the infamous lumber manufacturer Luzales. Companies are far from the first echelon. “Luzales” is generally drowning in the claims of regulatory authorities, employees and customers. But IKEA did not work out with the players in its weight category. Why, figured out #Nonbrekhnya.
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The builders “made a little mistake”, but the settlers will endure everything. This house was built under the renovation program in Moscow, the address is Konstantin Fedin, 13. The developer is a Moscow company, but directly related not only to Sergei Sobyanin, but also to Marat Khusnullin, the Mosproekt company. As you can see, the windows in the house are installed in such a way that the vents are at the bottom. For those who skipped physics at school, we recall: it will not work to ventilate the apartment normally with the help of such a window. It is only good for cats and small dogs (we hope, no more than that) to fall out of the windows … Architectural refinement? Know-how of the era of “pretty shells”? Most likely no. In neighboring houses, albeit not of very high quality, windows with vents are installed in a human way. So, at Konstantin Fedin, 13, the developer hired a contractor who doesn’t care about the “top” and “bottom” at the window. Happiness that they didn’t put it sideways. People start life in a “new, modern and cozy” house by ordering normal windows. At your own expense. More game, Sergei Semenovich!
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#There is an Opinion Sergey Zaversky, Head of the Department of Analytical Research at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the Central Bank’s project to launch a digital ruble for settlements of individuals from April 1: We have already been waiting for the launch of the pilot of the digital ruble. Although Russia is moving in this project according to the schedule drawn up by the Bank of Russia, it is noticeably behind the rest of the players. China has been testing the digital yuan and implementing various pilot projects in the regions for the past three years, while simultaneously exploring the possibility of using digital currencies in cross-border payments. India also this year has already begun testing the digital rupee. The launch of the digital ruble creates tangible benefits for all participants in the economy. For the population, this is, first of all, safety and convenience, and this will not only make it possible to compensate for the departure of some foreign payment systems, but will also bring the retail payment system to a new level. This will help the state to better control spending by ensuring transparency and targeting of payments. This will bring tangible benefits to the business as well, providing opportunities to reduce the cost of transactions. There is also particular interest in cross-border payments using digital rubles, for which, however, it will be necessary to ensure the compatibility of the digital ruble system with systems of other digital currencies. The only dissatisfied ones will be banks, which may face the withdrawal of part of the funds for electronic wallets, and the fact that an increasingly noticeable part of the calculations in the economy will pass them by.
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For money. How many leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will ask Putin immediately after the message The leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are flying to the Kremlin. They will meet with Putin on the day of emergency meetings of the State Duma and the Federation Council – the day after the message to the Federal Assembly. The presidents of the republics will ask Moscow to keep funding under the sanctions. Instead, create a trade hub on the southern borders of Russia. South Ossetia and Abkhazia receive Russian money from various sources – investment programs, public sector salaries, plus preferential loans from state banks. And electricity subsidies. As you can see, almost all investments are state-owned. Private business is reluctant to invest in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The risks of doing business are great – there have been cases of raiding, and even murders of Russian entrepreneurs. Moscow had to postpone the payment by Abkhazia of 2 billion rubles allocated for the reconstruction of the railway. And the Abkhazian authorities are already asking for new investments in the railway. Abkhazia is pushing through 2 more huge projects – the reconstruction of the Sukhum port and the construction of the Sukhum airport. For Russian account. Russian investments in the unrecognized republics can be justified only on one condition. Create a trading hub. Part of the cargo from ???????? Turkey, after the imposition of sanctions, has already begun to be imported to Russia through Abkhazia. Transport corridors from Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the direction of ???????? will have an even greater effect. Iran. True, they must go through ???????? Georgia. Moscow, having secured the consent of the leaders of the republics, should start negotiations with Tbilisi. Everyone would benefit from transit. Although the project has high risks of political instability.
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Dmitry Peskov stole the phrase-meme “We hope for your understanding” from Tinkoff Bank. At one time, the support of the bank with this phrase explained why Tinkoff would completely reject any transfer from abroad up to $200. And now the Kremlin, represented by the presidential press secretary, is explaining to her the dispossession of big business. More precisely, “voluntary fees” that will be imposed on businesses. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said he plans to raise 300 billion rubles. Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, in turn, explained the idea of ​​the collection as follows: “Last year’s financial results were very good, and many companies, especially in the first half of the year, for the first three quarters, had strong positive results.” The deficit is growing, there is nothing to plug it. Companies now clearly should not show their profit, and even more so imitate it, like Sberbank. And then they will come and insistently ask to “voluntarily” share. And what will happen to those who do not show good will, Russian businessmen know well. Many are firsthand. Understanding is not enough here. @nebrexnya
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Strikers and losers of the week on the stock exchange This week, the Moscow Exchange index was very depressed, losing 4.5%. He is under pressure from a number of factors: the forthcoming 10th package of sanctions and Putin’s announced address to the Federal Assembly. #There is an Opinion of Natalya Malykh, Head of the Finam Equity Analysis Department, especially for #Nebrekhni. She suggested looking for an explanation in less discussed processes: “I attribute this mainly to the decline in energy and metal prices, as well as the prospect of an increase in the tax burden on the largest commodity companies. This is such a soft nationalization, when legally an asset is registered with one shareholder, but a significant share of it goes to the budget, and in the current conditions it looks justified. Investors realized that there would be less dividends, and, given that the geopolitical situation remains difficult, they began to look for other options.” No one has risen this week. The top 3 falling stocks look like this: 3rd place: Polyus (-7.8%) The company is declining following the correction in gold prices. In rubles, it lost 1.7% over the week. 2nd place: Polymetal (-7.93%) Without visible news, the stock continues to work off the negative of recent weeks: declining gold, uncertainty with the change of jurisdiction. In addition, the company has almost completely reoriented its production to the domestic Russian market, which excludes it from the list of beneficiaries of the weakening ruble. 1st place: Tinkoff (-9.05%) Getting under sanctions for the bank can turn into trouble. Now he is deftly using his non-market advantage: he is not under sanctions, but at the same time he is quite large. When he is gone, he will again have to play on an equal footing with other players, along the way raking up a heap of related problems. @nebrexnya