Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 12/22/2022

AndSource Channel Post for December 22, 2022. #Vectors of the Day The market background is moderately positive. Asia is in a good plus, the US and the EU are in plus, but in a small one. The commodity market is also positive. News that will affect the markets: Putin promised not to militarize the country and the economy. The government, with its emergency powers, does not appear to have been informed. The US Congress intends to declare Russia an aggressor state, not a state sponsor of terrorism. The legal difference is not yet clear, but the status of a “sponsor” would make any foreign trade relations with the Russian Federation almost impossible. And this is not necessary for anyone, including the United States. WHO is concerned about the increase in new cases of covid in China. China used to close itself, now a cautious voice came from outside. It seems that the lifting of restrictions is still very far away. Gazprom Neft shareholders approved dividends for 9 months of 2022 in the amount of 69.78 rubles. The yield is about 15%, the cutoff is December 28. Boeing announced a significant recovery in the commercial aircraft market. Today: General Meeting of Yandex Shareholders. @nebrexnya
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Not all drones are entirely bought on AliExpress. For example, the Russian “Orlan-10” was bought there for spare parts. Well, not only there, but it really consists of foreign parts. And where is the vaunted import substitution? The problem is that he has his opponents who actively put spokes in the wheels. In the same Orlan, you can put a Russian camera. To do this, you need to remember that sometime in the USSR they produced advanced optics, set up its production, buy the magazine “Young Technician” and find out how the matrix of a digital camera works, then learn how to transmit photos over a distance by radio. Then do this with all foreign spare parts, and the Russian Orlan, perhaps, will fly somewhere. But this requires time, effort and cyclopean budgets, which no one will give the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Much easier to buy at the nearest Cannon or Nikon photo store and slip it quietly to defense enterprises. There's definitely high-quality optics, tested by millions of photographers. Before the sanctions of 2022, the defense industry itself preferred understandable foreign components to unknown Russian ones. Nobody bothers to re-glue the nameplate. Import substitution existed only on paper as unnecessary. And now, when the supply of any foreign equipment is in question, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov has to fight a hundred times more vigorously with adherents of parallel imports (opponents of import substitution are the same). And on the way to rake a tangle of problems. For example, when China drastically reduced the supply of dual-use products to the Russian Federation, the car-building plants howled because of the shortage of bearings. Because in Russia there was either a screwdriver assembly, or even import under the guise of production. As a result, there are no bearings, and the stones fly to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. But the winners are those who offer to open a market for smuggling. The Ministry of Industry and Trade managed to solve the problem of bearings, although it cost Manturov much more effort than it should have. And now the best way out for the Ministry of Industry and Trade is to unite with customs and strike at gray imports. Because to develop the production of import-substituting products, which can still be brought from abroad, is a so-so undertaking. So far, Manturov's department is busy extinguishing fires. And the aggressive “parallel-import” lobby prevents us from turning around and starting to work systematically. @nebrexnya
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#UtronaBirzhe The Russian market just cheered up today. Since the beginning of trading +0.78% and a confident look up. Today's strong borders are 2100 pt below and 2140 pt above. Now IMOEX has come close to the upper border and is trading around 2130 points. Growth leaders: Surgetneftegaz (+1.7% on prefs), Severstal (+1.7%, thanks to the currency) and LSR (+1.5%). Norilsk Nickel grows by 1.4%. It seems that investors have decided that since Potanin and his yacht are being pressured personally, Nornickel itself has nothing to fear. In addition, the pressure is very gentle. MTS closes the top five (+1.36%). Mosbirzha itself is flying down (-1.24%). The rest of the papers are quiet. Outside the index, Russian Footwear changed its mind. It loses 13.75%, which, of course, is nonsense against the backdrop of the shock growth of the last month (it was + 240%, it became + 140%). The Central Telegraph is also deflating (-13% for prefs and -6.15% for ordinary ones). GTM loses 3.22%. UWC (+31.87%), Mostotrest (+21.66%) and ChZPSN (+20.19%) take off. The ruble continues to fly on panic expectations. The dollar costs 72.3, the euro – 76.8. @nebrexnya
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Ukrainian-Spanish blogger Anatoly Shariy learned with “fuck” that “almost all the coolest and astronomically expensive” golf courses in Spain belong to the family of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova. And the official’s real estate includes a house for 18 million euros in the same Spain, a hotel in France for 50 million euros and two houses in Portugal for 4 million euros each. Back in mid-October, it became known that Golikova was selling her villa in Portugal for 10 million euros. Apparently, she sold, since Shariy does not mention her. It is strange that Shariy is so unfamiliar with the extent of Russian corruption. Houses worth millions of euros are a completely ordinary phenomenon. And for Madame Arbidol, the list of real estate is generally quite modest. By selling vaccines to the state, she made a multibillion-dollar fortune. Her stepson Vladimir Khristenko is the manufacturer of the Kovivak vaccine and also the owner of a huge amount of luxury real estate. And we must understand that the official also received her nickname for a reason. In 2020 alone, the manufacturer of Arbidol, Generium by Viktor Kharitonin, received 19.3 billion in revenue with a profit of 10.4 billion. And in just the time he worked with Golikova, he increased his fortune by $ 1 billion. any convenient occasion. What can you say? How much is still waiting for the “fucking” discoveries of Shariy if he starts looking for the assets of Khusnullin, Manturov, Liksutov or Shuvalov. # Nonsense, if anything, it will help. @nebrexnya
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The city authorities are looking for a contractor to remove snow from the streets in 2023 and 2024. The maximum auction price is 1.99 billion rubles. Only a few pennies fell short of 2 billion. Customer GBU “Roads”. The amount is huge, but, to make it clear, in 2022, officials allocated 9.9 billion rubles only for the transportation of snow within the framework of several dozen tenders. And that doesn't include cleaning costs. In accordance with the terms of reference, the service is performed around the clock, including weekends and holidays. Vehicles must be equipped with GLONASS satellite navigation with connection to the United Dispatch Service of the Department of Housing and Communal Services and Improvement of the City of Moscow. The snow mass should be transported to the smelters of State Unitary Enterprise Mosvodostok and JSC Mosvodokanal at 49 addresses in Moscow. At the same time, the tender documentation does not contain a targeted program, which indicates from which specific areas or streets it is necessary to remove snow. In total, 6.6 million cubic meters of snow must be transported from the roads during 2023 and 2024 under the terms of the auction. It turns out an average of about 300 rubles per cubic meter. Is it a market price or not? On such large volumes, there are much more interesting offers from commercial structures in the search engines. If desired, you can easily find transportation of snow for 180 rubles per cubic meter. This, among other things, is confirmed by the results of public procurement in the metropolitan districts. For example, in November 2022, an auction was already held for the provision of services for loading and removing snow from the territories of the NEAD regions. The initial conditions are as follows: for half a billion it was necessary to take out 2.5 million cubic meters of snow. That is, the maximum price is 200 rubles per cubic meter. The winner was Dorstroygarant LLC, and taking into account the fall, the cost of the service in the contract is on average 180 rubles. As it has already become clear, the Department of the City of Moscow for Competition Policy places a lot of “snow” tenders a year. Currently, the UIS has auctions worth up to half a billion rubles each for the removal of snow from the central regions of Moscow, as well as administrative districts. The total volume of transportation is at least 60 million cubic meters per year, including Zelenograd and New Moscow. In recent years, the largest contracts have been won by Correct Utilization LLC and Reserve Project. The first structure, which last year won the tender for 3.1 billion rubles without price reduction, is associated with the vice-mayor of the capital, Pyotr Biryukov, and the State Budgetary Institution Zhilischnik. And last year, FAS caught the “Reserve Project” in a cartel conspiracy. Let's see who will be the “snow” king this time P.S. If you notice a dubious public procurement, send the link to: [email protected]
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Scam marketing in banks is a normal practice. The trendsetter, of course, is German Gref and his Sberbank. The bank's advertisement promises a consumer loan at a rate of 4.5%. And this is with a live key rate of the Central Bank of 7.5%. An incredible percentage, but okay, not all borrowers understand how the key rate works. But what does Sber do next? Starts winding conditions and clauses in small print. Everything is extremely simple. This rate is only valid for the first month. And then – 13.5. And then with the addition “from”. And then you also need to insure life. As a result, the final interest on the loan is far beyond 20, instead of the promised 4.5. For advertisements of banks – the situation is ordinary. If you see an ad with a rate of 5-10%, you can be sure that there will be more small print in the contract than usual. In October, the Central Bank already proposed to oblige banks to indicate in advertising the real full cost of the loan. But the matter did not go further than proposals. But in vain. And then soon the banks, led by Sberbank, will start paying extra for taking loans from them. But only on the pages of their advertisements. @nebrexnya
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@nebrexnya experts especially for @kremlin_mother_expert The Russian real estate market is slowly dying. The behavior of a rational investor is to wait until he dies to the end and buy real estate at the bottom. But where is the bottom? In Moscow, for 111 months of 2022, 21% fewer transactions were concluded than a year earlier. At the same time, the main decline did not occur in September, when mobilization was announced, but in April-May. That is, the pressure on the secondary market is exerted not by a specific event, but by the situation as a whole. The shock of political events is gradually passing. The market was already beginning to slowly revive, until mobilization hit it. In general, the beginning of the reversal depends on whether there will be other political shocks in the near future. With the purchase of an apartment for rent – its own difficulties. And they have matured for a long time. Real estate prices have increased at an inappropriate pace in recent years. The rent didn't keep up with them. Because of this, the ratio of rental price to purchase price has been rising all the time, making the purchase of investment property less profitable. But even now there is nothing to increase the rent on. Odnushki in Moscow fell in price by an average of 11% (up to 45 thousand rubles), kopeck pieces – by 22% (up to 71 thousand). Renting an apartment is getting harder. Sales in new buildings also collapsed. In December 2022, the area of ​​unsold apartments in new buildings in Russia reached 66 million sq.m. This is two-thirds of all housing under construction and the highest in the history of the Russian housing market. In general, the real estate market is a real disaster. And it is worth buying when there is a feeling that he will never recover. But it is important to remember that finding the bottom for any purchase is extremely difficult. Therefore, it is better to choose a price that is comfortable for yourself and not regret anything.
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The career of Mikhail Zadornov, the head of the Discovery, is ending. The Central Bank is still selling this VTB Bank for 340 billion rubles. This is approximately one capital (it is estimated at 330-370 billion rubles). After the sale, Otkritie will be headed by former Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Mikhail Alekseev. VTB shares on this news rose at the moment by 3.37%. Investors took the news positively, but is everything so rosy? 233 billion will be paid in cash, the remaining 106 billion – OFZ. So a hundred billion of the Ministry of Finance's debt was transferred from the state bank actually directly to the state, to the Central Bank. And he already spent half a trillion rubles on the recovery of the Discovery. And as a result, he will receive half as much, and even a third – in candy wrappers. It seems that this is the most unprofitable transaction in the history of the Central Bank – 203 billion rubles. Zadornov estimated the irretrievable losses of the Discovery at 1 trillion rubles. Partially, the top manager himself offered his hand to them, forgiving the former owners of debts and concluding strange settlement agreements with them. And Otkritie sold many assets according to a very murky procedure. Auditors from VTB, of course, can ask Zadornov many questions, but will they do this or will they allow him to retire quietly? @nebrexnya
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Following Gazprom, the government began to squeeze money from Alrosa, the world's largest diamond producer. The company did not just have to do this year because of the sanctions. What are the prospects for the development of Alrosa now and whether shareholders should expect dividends?

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