The Central Bank revised the forecast for oil prices. Instead of $70 per barrel, $55 is now expected. And in 2024 too. This means that no one will replenish the NWF – it receives income at a price above $60 per barrel. In addition, the target price from the CBR is below the oil ceiling. It seems that Elvira Nabiullina does not believe that the politicians will be able to agree, and the oilmen will be able to find markets in countries that did not support the ceiling. Get ready to work with what you have. It is especially alarming in this situation to observe the dynamics of the NWF. By the beginning of February 2023, the liquid part of the NWF amounted to 6 trillion rubles. The volume decreased from the peak indicators of 9.7 trillion rubles. Not to mention that the diversification of assets in the fund is at the level of a high school student who opened his first brokerage account: gold and yuan. @nebrexnya
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The impact of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings on the exchange rate should not be overestimated. Exporters incur costs in rubles, they still need to sell the currency. Just now – at a convenient time and at a convenient pace. If certain circumstances sharply increase costs, then foreign exchange earnings will be sold sharply, and the ruble will skyrocket. Moreover, exporters need to pay taxes and dividends, which the government is increasingly demanding as the budget deficit grows. And any tax sneeze in their direction will also be a signal to urgently drain the currency. The abolition of the requirement for the sale of foreign exchange earnings did not weaken the ruble by itself. She made the course less manageable. @nebrexnya
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The leadership of the Russian Association of the Cryptoindustry and Blockchain (RACIB) and the authorities of Abkhazia are discussing the creation of an IT cluster on the territory of the latter in order to develop digital solutions. Experts argue that Abkhazia can “turn into a digital mini-Switzerland for Russia and its friendly countries”, and expect that this year it will have its own blockchain, which will be used to create a platform for cross-border payments, a stablecoin, digital financial assets ( CFA) and independent tokens (NFT).
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Deja vu. Depressurization on the ship “Progress MS-21”. The reason is the leakage of the coolant of the thermal control system. This is literally the same thing that happened with the Soyuz, because of which the astronauts on the ISS risked being boiled alive, and now they are deprived of the opportunity to urgently leave orbit if necessary. It’s time to make legends about Borisov’s “accident-free” and to sell courses to the head of Roskosmos himself. Because paying him a salary from the budget after everything that happened is a crime. What is happening cannot be explained either by gouging, or by incompetence, or by sanctions. Only with an evil eye. @nebrexnya
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Retail chains are massively changing stores to ultra-cheap format Lenta intends to open the first discounters – stores with ultra-low prices. The company has already filed an application for registration of the name “Lenta Economy”, follows from the documents in the database of the Federal Institute of Industrial Property. This is a general trend in the market and there will be more and more hard discounters going forward. Due to falling incomes of Russians and the austerity regime, residents of the country have increasingly turned to low-price shops. For example, the O’Key retail chain was able to achieve profit growth precisely thanks to its Yes! discounters, whose revenue jumped one and a half times. The revenue of other “stores for the poor” – “Chizhik” (they are operated by the X5 retailer) – even showed an increase of 12 times over the year. The number of outlets has increased seven times, which is even more than the company itself had planned. According to NielsenIQ, due to the unstable economic situation in the country, in order to optimize their budget, 61% of Russians have switched to stores with more affordable prices, another 41% are looking for discounts and promotions, more than a third (37%) buy only the most necessary things. Lenta decided to follow the path of Magnit Despite the fact that the retail chain already has My Price points of sale, the retailer decided to move away from stores with a range of private label items in favor of discounters with a more diverse range of cheap goods.
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Top regional events All the money flows to Moscow, but is “made” in the regions. Our partners and I have prepared a selection of iconic regional events from the new reality this week. The Tatar Yakuza is perplexed. Adherents of the Finiko financial pyramid on one of the well-known platforms for popular initiatives created a petition for the release of the co-founder of the pyramid and the media person Kirill Doronin from the pre-trial detention center. One of the main arguments was the assertion that he was in fact an honest citizen who fought for every ruble brought by the affected investors, but he himself became a victim of partner deception. Kuznetsk kaylo is waiting for the start of construction of the airport in Sheregesh. Novaport Holding is ready to complete the design and start construction of the terminal by 2024. However, work will begin when a decision is made to build the runway. Accents of the North complain that the Chelyabinsk governor Texler has become the king of thwarted purchases in the Urals. Chelyabinsk officials receive the Golden Plum prize. For the most incompetent work with tenders in the Urals. The Chelyabinsk authorities managed to cancel about 2.5 thousand purchases in just a year. The Near East is ironic: Buryatstat reported a threefold increase in the number of electric vehicles in Buryatia over the past two years. However, in physical terms, there are 290 cars for the entire republic. kavkaz_leakbez is alarmed. With the planned budget deficit of Dagestan in 2023 in the amount of 15 billion rubles and the absence of any prospects for the commissioning of industrial facilities planned in the long-term strategy, Sergey Melikov set the task of making the tourism industry a budget-forming one. With budget revenues this year of 26 billion rubles. The industry will be mercilessly whipped and milked, the authors of the channel state. @nebrexnya
Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen discuss a smoother Brexit
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a step towards mending the strained...