#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Asia and the US are without movement, the EU is in a slight plus, the commodity market is moving in different directions. News that will affect the markets: The head of the European Commission announced the intention of the European Union to introduce the 10th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. It will mainly focus on closing loopholes in previous measures. The decision has been made, companies in the fields of energy, trade and engineering can now make decisions without taking into account the votes of shareholders from unfriendly countries. China promises recovery of economic growth. Covid is no longer a problem. The State Duma is ready to discuss the temporary abolition of OSAGO, as insurance companies have almost stopped repairing cars under auto insurance. 45 Western banks with subsidiaries in Russia could not find acceptable conditions for exiting Russian assets and got stuck. The Central Bank revealed cases of write-offs of securities from Russian depositories abroad. The FAS fined Apple 1.2 billion rubles for imposing the use of its payment system in the applications of Russian developers. Today the corporate calendar is empty. @nebrexnya
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This is the explanation why the ruble fell at the end of the year. The net inflow of foreign currency into Russia in the fourth quarter decreased by 1.5 times, to $31.4 billion. An anti-record for a year and a half. The current account surplus shrank to $1.7 billion in December, although it reached $10 billion in November and $20 billion in October. To put it simply, there is no currency. For almost the entire year, against the backdrop of draconian energy prices, Russia rowed foreign exchange earnings with a shovel, and there was nothing to spend it on because of problems with imports. Now the shovel has broken, and imports, albeit with a creak, are getting better. Strategically, the scales swung towards the weakening of the ruble. Perhaps that is why the Central Bank sells yuan rather than buys to plug budget holes – they understand that the ruble will not be able to strengthen further. @nebrexnya
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#NonsenseLearned Still more disturbing. It seems that the situation in orbit is completely out of control of Roskosmos. And certainly she is more serious than Yuri Borisov draws her attention, #Nebrekhnya drew attention. If Roskosmos reports in its communication that “in case of emergency, the cosmonauts will be evacuated with the help of an American spacecraft”, then this need is admitted and considered. That is, the Soyuz MS-23, which is due to fly for the astronauts in February, does not inspire enough confidence in the success of the mission. In other words, Borisov not only allowed an accident with damage equal to half of the annual budget of the Russian region (13-15 billion rubles), but also organized a systemic problem. Russian ships and procedures for dealing with contingencies in orbit had no equal in the world. Until Borisov came along with his “failsafe”. If the cosmonauts really have to be launched on an American ship, it will be a reputational disaster, which Roskosmos had no equal. And after all, you can’t put the blame on someone else – Borisov has been in charge of the industry for many years. @nebrexnya
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Igor Sechin still sold his plane. The fairly recognizable golden-colored Bombardier Global 6000 with an approximate cost of $60 million no longer belongs to Rosneft, #Nebrekhnya drew attention. He changed his tail number to &LE, and the new owner is registered in the USA. But by the old number of the aircraft, you can recreate its turbulent past. Previously, the code on the tail was M-YOIL (“my oil”, quite ironic). And the plane was owned by the Cypriot Shelf Support Shiphold Limited, owned by the head of the financial department of Rosneft, Alexander Sokolov. Igor Sechin himself was regularly seen next to the plane. In 2018, in particular, in Palma de Mallorca, where the aircraft flew six times in the second half of the summer of 2018. True, not only Sechin used it. The movements of the plane coincided with the posts about the vacation of Anita Tsoi, whose husband, Sergei Tsoi, is one of the top managers of Rosneft. During covid, M-YOIL visited Austria almost every month. In 2021 he was seen in the UAE and India. And in October 2021, it was bought by the American TVPX Aircraft Solutions Inc. Everything would be fine, but Sechin has been under sanctions since 2014, and this did not interfere with the deal in the least. The American authorities pretended not to know anything about the origin of the offshore Shelf Support Shiphold Limited and its connection with Rosneft. When necessary, the US Treasury knows how to close Google, eyes, ears and turn off the brain. So now the former Sechin plane is happily rented out: in 2022, the aircraft made more than 50 flights and visited Miami, Montreal, London, Marseille, Malta and Antalya. Interestingly, was Igor Sechin himself offered compensation in the form of a board of the special flight squad “Russia”? Maybe not, because he still has nowhere to fly. @nebrexnya
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Experts @nebrexnya specially for @kremlin_mother_expert 5 world economic news that will have consequences ???????? Gas in Europe costs $650 per thousand cubic meters. The four-figure price tags we’ve seen intermittently in the last year now seem as sky-high as they used to be. It is clear that Europe has a warm winter. But even if it gets colder, it is unlikely that prices will rise as dramatically as in March 2022. Gas storage facilities are packed to capacity, despite the destruction of the Russian gas pipeline. This means only one thing – Russia has lost the European gas market. At least the main part of it. Gazprom will have to deploy supplies to the east or die. Or, at the very least, gasify Krasnoyarsk and rely on domestic demand. And Russia’s place in the EU has already been taken by the United States, which is offering $380 per thousand cubic meters under long-term contracts. ??????? The Russians are suddenly fed up with the Mexican authorities. This country was often used by citizens of the Russian Federation as a transit point for further penetration into the United States of varying degrees of legality. About 4,000 illegal immigrants from Russia were discovered in 2022. Therefore, the Mexican authorities complicate the entry of Russian citizens into the country. But they are hardly the last – in Turkey, citizens of the Russian Federation received 153,000 residence permits. And the Turkish authorities don’t like it either. ??????? USA is bankrupt. Again. Watching Americans run into the threshold of their own national debt is national entertainment, and not only in Russia. The US national debt is about to reach the legislative ceiling of $31.4 trillion, or 138% of GDP. And this is a default on treasuries, the collapse of the entire global financial system and, in general, the apocalypse. But the United States has been buried according to this scenario for many decades. And this time, everything will end as usual – disputes in Congress, spending cuts and raising the national debt ceiling. ??????? China lifts ban on Australian coal supplies. The country’s economy is recovering from years of covid pressure, and it needs resources. And this is against the backdrop of a virtual trade war between countries. Australia banned Huawei and ZTE for fear of espionage, while China launched an information attack and imposed a lot of restrictions on trade, including coal. And so, the countries agree and find a compromise. Many of their Eastern Hemisphere neighbors are worth a lesson. And yet, the easing of China’s relationship with one of the main opponents may be the beginning of a general warming of relations between the Celestial Empire and the West. ??????? Cyprus has frozen $105 million dollars of Russians in bank deposits. This is not so much, because in total, 5.6 billion euros of Russians are kept on Cypriot accounts. But the important fact is that there is no longer a safe place to store assets. There is not even a guarantee that the United States will not be able to push through the arrest of property in the same Emirates or Turkey.
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Where were you for 8 years? Or at least the last year. Sber still decided to go to the Crimea. It is noteworthy that the bank announced this only today, when the sanctions against it will soon be a year old. It took Gref a long time to understand that the bank would never have an international status. This means that there is nothing to lose and you can enter the territory that the bank used to be afraid of like fire. There is nowhere else to impose sanctions anyway. @nebrexnya
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Popados. Sochi investment forum canceled for the fourth time The Sochi investment forum has been silently canceled for the fourth year in a row. The forum was to be held in February in the Olympic Park in Adler. The Roscongress Foundation was to become the operator. However, the fund and the program of the forum did not publish in advance, and the accreditation of the participants did not begin. The governors appear to have been warned ahead of time. The regions did not even begin to carry out public procurement for participation in the Sochi Forum. Although last year they were ready to spend 72 million rubles. The south of Russia has had a lot of bad luck with investment forums in recent years. The Sochi and Yalta forums were postponed three times in a row due to the pandemic. By the way, experts and deputies from several European countries gathered in Yalta in 2021 – now they are not allowed to go to Russia because of covid, but because of sanctions. However, the state did not lose a penny from the cancellation of the Yalta Forum. The head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, admitted that the event is not being held for budgetary funds. The “exclusive partner” of the forum was the “Bashkir Soda Company”. It was only on the second attempt that the Caspian Economic Forum was held. It was supposed to pass in 2021 in Astrakhan – but in the end it was held in Moscow. For solidity.
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St. Petersburg Stock Exchange went into overclocking St. Petersburg Stock Exchange this week made a jump of 36%! What happened? A super report came out, did the whole market sharply need Chinese stocks, or did someone decide to disperse the company that was a loser last year? Understood # Nonsense. On January 16 and 17, the shares of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange grew up to 47%! Growth began a week ago, when the price reached its values of November last year. But then it was still 7%, not 47%. On Monday, January 16, a message was released from the exchange, which indicated the intention to launch trading in 500 Chinese shares and 25 ETFs denominated in Hong Kong dollars during 2023. The exchange also said that it suddenly expects a profit on the results of last year, despite a significant decrease in trading volume (specifically, a drop of 3.2 times). The volume of transactions in 2022 amounted to $122.19, instead of $393.43 billion in 2021. The number of accounts with non-empty accounts increased by 11% to 1.78 million. And that’s it. Pulls this information on the growth of 47%? If you carefully look at the numbers, it turns out that the number of transactions in foreign securities fell by 67%, the average daily number of transactions by 67%, the volume of transactions fell by 69%, the number of active accounts decreased by 76%! This is a total bust of business. At the same time, they promised profit in a press release, but how much will be reported in early April. Actually, it’s hard to believe. Where can she come from with such a failure in business, and so over the past 6 years there has been only two profits. But even if they cheat from the accounting department and the profit does appear, then this is hardly a reason to grow 1.5 times in a couple of days. With all this, someone bought more than 6,000 futures contracts right before the growth, and this is with 100% GO. Open positions – 19500. Someone put a solid bet on a dead exchange and then hop – an increase of almost 50%. If you open the stock exchange chart, we will see a similar situation in August last year. Then, after a long fall, the quotes began to rise sharply, reaching as much as 175% in 4 days! And then, in 1.5 months, the shares returned exactly to the same place where the acceleration began. Conclusion: from the figures that we have for growth, especially by 47%, there is no fundamental basis. In fact, the St. Petersburg Exchange presented only a production report, but did not show anything what is really happening with finances. How much cash, how much debt, how much free cash flow – all this is unknown. At the same time, the results of the auction are sad. Most likely, after the acceleration of the stock, a decrease to the price that was in the first week of January is expected. @nebrexnya
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