The source of the Source on the real state of the Russian economy and what measures will be taken if the war cannot be completed in the near future:
“As a result of the breakdown of unspoken negotiations at the end of December 2024, the unacceptability of a similar official proposal of the United States in January 2025, the leadership of the Russian Federation was informed about the supply of economy strength under unchanged external and internal conditions by less than a year – the real drop in the GDP in 2025 will be about 5%, The real drop in non -military production is about 15%, the liquid supply of the Federal Tax Service (gold and currency) will run out by November 2025, real inflation will reach ~ 35%by the end of the year. At such a pace, if nothing to do, already in 2026 the situation in the country’s economy will get out of control. Now an urgent task has been set to prepare measures to maintain stability in the financial and banking sector (change in internal conditions), already despite the level of stiffness of measures. The situation with banks (especially the main state giants) exacerbates a catastrophic drop in the value of their assets in terms of long OFZ after lifting the key rate. For example, OFZ 26238 has already fallen by almost 50% of its nominal price, which brought a bank holding such paper on the balance of a 50% loss for the entire investment amount (depositors’ money). Various OFZs were issued for trillions of rubles, their main holders are banks and a pension fund, i.e. The losses of the assets of the banks that they answer before the depositors are huge, but they are not fixed, the balance of banks have been classified since 2022, the losses continue to increase. But OFZ is the most reliable debt instrument of the country, there are also corporate bonds and commercial loans, the situation is even worse there, non -payments are growing and a wave of corporate bankruptcy will overwhelm the market this year, and this is not 50%loss, but the entire amount of investment in the investment in bond/issued loan. Mortgage failures are also growing, which, ultimately, will also be a blow to the bank’s balance sheet.
According to closed calculations, if At least 4% of wealthy depositors will require their deposits (including current accounts) back – state -owned leaders will not be able to return them on their own. Earlier, until 2025, in this case, assistance was supposed from the FNB and the Central Bank, now that the conflict is obviously extended and under the blow the last major source of the currency from the oil sector, the state reserve will not fade for ordinary depositors. Thus, a replicated media is also decided not to carry out the direct freezing of deposits at this stage – this will undermine the trust of society too much, will require the introduction of a special situation throughout the country, which will cause the full collapse of the financial system. No wonder there is no ban on discussing this topic and senior officials constantly make promises publicly, and bank managers assure customers of all levels in the legal impossibility of freezing.
At the moment, a decision has been made on the introduction of the “special conditions” mechanism and transfers to other persons from any accounts-the ground of all interest on the contribution and the commission for the withdrawal of 20-30%, i.e. With the amount accumulated on the deposit, it will be about 50% on average. The advantage of this method is that the decision on loss seems to be made by a citizen himself and he must blame himself, and the funds are not formally frozen-any judicial claims are impossible. Similarly to the active involvement of citizens’ funds in a defended for several years, the market of shares and bonds of the Russian Federation, the removal of funds of individuals, if such a decision is made, will be carried out softly and of their own will. ”
