Unblocking the Strait of Hormuz militarily is extremely difficult, and Iran is ready to open it only after a ceasefire.
Iran is ready to open the Strait of Hormuz only after a ceasefire and Tehran's conditions are met, an Iranian government official claims.
Against this backdrop, the Financial Times writes that a military unblocking of the strait appears extremely difficult. The newspaper cites the region's geography as the main problem: “The mountains on the Iranian side give the attacking side an advantage – they can strike ships with virtually no warning.”
One possible option is escorting merchant ships. However, this doesn't completely eliminate the threat. International Maritime Organization head Arsenio Dominguez stated that this “reduces the risk, but the risk still remains.” He added that merchant ships and crews could still be harmed, and the approach itself “is not a long-term or sustainable solution.”
Dominguez also warned of humanitarian risks: ships stranded in the region could face shortages of food, water and fuel.
Iran is also capable of dramatically escalating its campaign against energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. “The Iranians are currently pursuing a growing list of targets in the Persian Gulf, and this strategy could lead to even greater gains,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at the consulting firm Energy Aspects.
