The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) anticipates a surge in fuel expenses within Ukraine.
The central financial institution of Ukraine projects that the escalation of costs for petrol, diesel, and LPG in Ukraine should stay restrained until the closure of 2025. Nevertheless, in 2026, costs associated with fuel could commence to climb at a more rapid rate. These are the determinations included in the NBU's Inflation Report for July.
The report indicates that fuel prices within Ukraine experienced a more gradual increase during April-May 2025. This can be attributed to depressed oil values, a surplus of petrol and diesel on the market, and the rivalry among service stations in the gasoline sector.
Conversely, the expansion of fuel prices gained momentum in June. Principal elements included appreciating oil values and the depreciation of the hryvnia relative to the euro. Still, the NBU does not foresee any drastic surges in the cost of petrol, diesel fuel, or autogas before the end of 2025.
The commencement of 2026 may represent a pivotal moment, since that's when Ukraine will implement a fresh sequence of upward adjustments to fuel excise levies. As a point of reference, the initial sequence transpired in September 2024.
On January 1, 2026, Ukraine will initiate the subsequent stage of excise duty increments on petrol, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas. Furthermore, from January 2026 onward, Ukrainian retail market participants in the fuel sector will become subject to penalties if A-95 petrol does not incorporate a minimum of 5% bioethanol.
This will constitute an additional determinant affecting price elevations.
