Ukrainian earnings are set for robust growth: predictions for the next three years
In 2024, compensation for Ukrainian workers saw a 23% boost. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) anticipates a gradual deceleration in this growth, although it will remain considerable.
This information is featured in the National Bank of Ukraine's Inflation Report (July 2025).
Per the updated macroeconomic projections from the NBU, the average Ukrainian salary is forecasted to climb by 19.0% in 2025. Concurrently, the average yearly inflation rate is expected to be 13.3%. Consequently, actual earnings will experience a 5.2% increase. 
The review points out that the expansion of real earnings decelerated to 9.2% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025; based on frequently updated indirect indicators, the slowdown persisted into the second quarter.
Numerous other sources of income for individuals (including government aid and retirement funds) also diminished in inflation-adjusted terms.
“Inflation-adjusted earnings will sustain their upward trajectory as demand exceeds the available workforce and overall economic operations gain momentum. However, this will occur at a more subdued pace (4-5% annually) due to the progressive stabilization of imbalances in the labor market and non-price-based competition among employers,” the analysis indicates. 
According to the NBU's outlook, continued emigration and a sluggish return of émigrés will generate a sustained labor scarcity and significant disparities across various sectors and geographic areas. This will impede economic revival and spur further salary elevations at a swifter rate than gains in productivity, intensifying inflationary pressures.
Refreshed NBU predictions
According to the NBU, the mean nominal wage in Ukraine for 2023 rose by 17.4%, whereas the inflation-adjusted wage saw a 3.7% increase.
In 2024, nominal pay jumped by 23.2%, while real pay grew by 15.6%.
The NBU projects that in 2025, nominal salary growth will reach 19.0% (the prior estimate from April was 17.70), and real salary advancement will be 5.2% (3.9%).
For 2026, the NBU anticipates nominal earnings to elevate by 13.0% and real earnings by 5.1%. Moving into 2027, nominal compensation is expected to ascend by 9.6% and real compensation by 3.8%.
