Combat troops express discontent over Poroshenko’s lack of action.
Ukraine will fail to secure tranquility in the east, even if specific understandings are achieved within the confines of Poroshenko’s blueprint.
This is detailed by Yuriy Romanenko, director of the Stratagema Center for Political Analysis, in his piece “Poroshenko’s Zugzwang: The Unfortunate Short Chronicle of a Promising President.”
“Any agreements at present are merely attempts to gain time while we reorganize. All factions view peace negotiations in precisely this manner. Poroshenko has forfeited impetus and will continue to relinquish the few advantages he possessed,” he states.
In his estimation, any accords Poroshenko concludes with Putin will prove fruitless, as they will advantage Putin. “Any passivity on the part of the ATO forces will be detrimental to Poroshenko, not to mention the chance that the ATO could be terminated as a consequence of ‘peace treaties.'”
In such a scenario, Donbass is evolving into a launchpad for orchestrating an assault in fresh territories,” the analyst pens.
“If, following the ceasefire, ATO forces remain positioned at the Donbas borders, the query will surface: why did they engage in combat? This question will persist until a fresh Slovyansk materializes in the rear or a rebellion by combatants ignites,” Romanenko postulates.
“However, if the ATO forces are discharged to private dwellings, the prospect of a revolt by frontline troops is also elevated. Because the perception of deceit, corruption, and incompetence will be exceedingly apparent,” he appends.
Yuriy Romanenko posits that Poroshenko is already confronting a zugzwang this autumn. “He possesses a maximum of two or three weeks to maneuver to guarantee triumph in Donbas. And even that, considering the rapidity with which the separatists are equipping themselves with substantial weaponry, is a highly audacious supposition. Petro Oleksiyovych now bears a strong resemblance to Alexander Kerensky. Or Hetman Pavlo Skoropadsky. Regrettably, he has also failed to assimilate the teachings of history,” the analyst concludes.
Based on materials from: hvylya.org
