Top scandals around Poroshenko: will the rating of the president and the BPP collapse?

According to political scientists, the president’s party will remain number one in future local elections, unlike the party of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Political forces are slowly beginning to prepare for local elections. At the same time, the ratings of the largest parties in parliament – the BPP and the Popular Front – have fallen since October 2014. Let us remind you that in the Rada elections, 21.82% of Ukrainians voted for the BPP, and 22.14% for the “NF”. At the same time, according to KIIS, support for the BPP is now 16.1%, the NF is only 4% (according to Segodnya sources, the real rating of the BPP has fallen even more – by at least 10%). This partly explains the rumors about the authorities’ desire to postpone local elections, which are due to be held in the fall, until the completion of the constitutional reform – at least for a year. However, the presidential political force, which recently regained its name “Solidarity,” is actively preparing for the elections themselves.

Segodnya.ua collected the main scandals mentioning No. 1 in the ranking of political forces – the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the president himself for the year.

PERSONNEL: NBU, GPU AND DEFENSE

YAREMA: MAIDAN CASES AND DANILENKO’S SCHEMES. Vitaliy Yarema was appointed Prosecutor General on July 19, 2014 at the suggestion of Petro Poroshenko. And already in September 2014, the first scandal broke out: journalists of the “Our Pennies” project reported that the family of Yarema’s deputy, Anatoly Danilenko, owns 140 hectares of reservoirs in the Kyiv region, taken out of state ownership according to schemes popular in the 90s. Danilenko had previously worked for Yarema – even when he was deputy prime minister, and after his appointment to the GPU he left to become the boss. Yarema was also accused of sabotaging the investigation into the shootings on the Maidan in February 2014, and that the GPU helped a number of ex-officials from the Yanukovych era (including Nikolai Zlochevsky and Yuriy Ivanyushchenko) to unblock their accounts by issuing an official confirmation to the EU that there were no criminal proceedings against them. Yarema was fired on February 10, 2015, followed by the new Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin and Danilenko. On February 16, Yarema was removed from the National Security and Defense Council.

GONTAREVA: THE FALL OF THE HRYVNYA AND THE BANK. Many experts and politicians consider the appointment of Valeria Gontareva as head of the NBU to be one of Poroshenko’s personnel mistakes. Her dismissal was repeatedly demanded by deputies from the coalition (in particular, the “Radical Party”), and deputies of other political forces. Gontareva is accused of a strong devaluation of the hryvnia, non-transparent refinancing, currency auctions and the selective introduction of temporary administrations. According to economic experts, the head of the NBU also secretly allowed some large and medium-sized bankers to withdraw their capital abroad and partially transfer it into real estate, after which the banks declared bankruptcy and depositors lost money. Another reason for dissatisfaction with the National Bank is personnel changes. Gontareva fired experienced top managers, replacing them with new people.

The possible resignation of the head of the NBU was especially loudly discussed in February-March: on the eve of the decision by the IMF Board of Directors to provide a loan to Ukraine. According to Segodnya, Gontareva’s resignation letter was on the president’s desk in early March, and after the decision on the program to allocate money to Ukraine, Poroshenko was allegedly going to satisfy it. However, after March 11, the topic of resignation gradually faded away. Political scientists believe that the president does not want to dismiss the head of the NBU, as this will be evidence of another failure in his personnel, which could negatively impact his authority.

GELETEI AND THE TRAGEDY IN ILOVAISK. Valery Geletey was appointed Minister of Defense on July 3, 2014 after his candidacy was submitted by the President. Upon his appointment, he promised to return Crimea and hold a Victory Parade in Sevastopol. The minister began administrative reform in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, recreated the special service to identify enemy agents and cases of non-compliance with combat orders, and planned to reformat the Ukrainian army according to the Swiss model. But after the battles near Ilovaisk (August 10 – September 3, 2014), Geletey was blamed for the deaths of 108 Ukrainian soldiers. Military experts say the cause of the tragedy was erroneous personnel appointments in the Ukrainian army. On September 25, 2014, “Batkivshchyna” appealed to Poroshenko to dismiss Geletey, and on October 12, he himself submitted his resignation, which the president accepted on the same day.

BUSINESS: “ROSHEN” AND KOLOMOISKY

DELAY IN SALE OF BUSINESS AND CANDY IN LIPETSK. While still a presidential candidate, Pyotr Alekseevich promised to sell his business. As you know, he owns the Roshen corporation, whose annual turnover, according to 2012 data, is about UAH 9.6 billion, as well as Channel 5. At the end of last year, the president announced that he would not sell the TV channel, but he transferred the corporate rights of Roshen to the selling company. The holding is now managed by the Prime Assets Capital fund. The preparation and sale of assets is carried out by Rothschild & Cie and Investment Capital of Ukraine. Negotiations on the sale are dragging on, Poroshenko admitted back in December, and if a seller is not found in the near future, he promised to sell the company to management in installments. But so far he has not fulfilled his promise. Another reason for the scandal is the work of the Lipetsk confectionery factory “Roshen” in the Russian Federation (*country sponsor of terrorism). Despite the president’s assurances that she hardly sells candy in Russia (*country sponsor of terrorism), eyewitnesses claim that they can be safely bought, for example, in Moscow.

“UKRNAFTA” AND “UKRTRANSNAFTA”. Late in the evening of March 19, the governor of the Dnepropetrovsk region, Igor Kolomoisky, with a group of armed people arrived at the Ukrtransnafta building after a change in leadership (Olexander Lazorko was fired and Yuriy Miroshnik was appointed). Kolomoisky, according to Energy Minister Vladimir Demchishin (considered close to Poroshenko, previously worked in Gontareva’s ICU group) personally decided to check the documents of the new leader, while his people blocked the exits and exits to the building. And on the evening of March 22, the building of Ukrnafta (the governor lost control over it as a result of Verkhovna Rada’s changes to the legislation on joint stock companies) began to be surrounded with iron bars without any permission. This behavior of the official aroused the indignation of Ukrainians; as a result, Kolomoisky resigned, promising to leave politics in exchange for maintaining his interests in the above-mentioned companies, and Poroshenko accepted this resignation. According to political scientist Vadim Karasev, Kolomoisky should not return to active politics yet – otherwise he risks losing his business, and some of his people will have to leave the country after the latest scandals. At the same time, Vladimir Fesenko is confident that Kolomoisky will try to bring his people into power in local elections – in order to maintain his influence.

CORRUPTION: THE BUREAU IS STILL NO

The creation of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is provided for by law adopted on October 14 last year. It came into force on January 25, 2015; after a competitive selection, experts left four candidates for the position of head of the NAB: Viktor Chumak, Artem Sitnik, Yakov Varichev and Nikolai Siry. Now they must undergo a lustration check. According to the law, the NAB is created by the president. The appointment of the head of the bureau and its actual creation are being delayed, for which representatives of the BPP and the Popular Front are accused. The competition commission is ready to make a decision within 24 hours, assures its representative Yuri Butusov. At the same time, according to him, the deadlines for passing a special test for selected candidates were seriously violated (documents about its results were supposed to be submitted on March 26). The next time the experts will meet is on April 7.

“The delay in creation is due to three factors. Firstly, there are many opponents of the adopted concept in the coalition. The main dispute is who should report to the NAB – parliament or the president,” political scientist Kost Bondarenko told us. “Secondly, the question of who will lead it has not been fully resolved and is causing controversy and controversy. And thirdly, the creation is opposed by law enforcement agencies, who understand that they will lose part of their functions and funding.”

And political scientist Andrei Zolotarev connects the delay in the situation with the creation of the bureau with distrust between the presidential and prime minister’s teams: “Each side hopes to receive carte blanche in this situation. In addition, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau can become a serious tool in the internal political struggle, plus the history of corruption in the Cabinet of Ministers: arrests for purchasing fuel at inflated prices and a statement about 7 billion abuses… Both sides are afraid that the created bureau will work against them. That’s why the issue is being delayed.”

POLITICS: VISITING THE RADA AND “CYNICAL BANDERAS”

LAWS. Poroshenko is often accused of putting pressure on parliament: he periodically comes to the Verkhovna Rada to convince deputies to accept presidential initiatives and other relevant bills. Among the latter, we can name projects on a special procedure for local self-government in certain localities of Donbass, adopted by the Rada after many hours of communication between the president and faction leaders on March 17. Similarly, Verkhovna Rada abolished parliamentary immunity in early February and adopted the 2015 budget before the New Year. According to political experts, from the point of view of the current Constitution, such a level of influence of the president on parliament is illogical, because the legislative body now has more powers.

SON. Dissatisfaction is also caused by the fact that the son of President Alexei Poroshenko participated in the elections to the Rada – we recall that he ran in the majoritarian constituency No. 12 from BPP. The president claims that his son made an independent decision to become a deputy, and Alexey himself asks journalists not to associate him with ex-president Yanukovych and his family.

KOLOMOYSKY. As for the BPP faction itself, another scandal occurred after the seizure of the buildings of Ukrnafta and Ukrtransnafta by Kolomoisky’s people: four deputies – Andriy Denisenko, Vitaliy Kupriy (Read more about him in the article by Vitaly Kupriy. Kolomoisky’s mongrel received an order to eliminate Poroshenko), Valentin Didych and Alexander Dubinin – announced their decision to leave the faction, accusing the authorities of discrediting the leadership of the Dnipropetrovsk region. They promised to create their own deputy group if they found like-minded people. “These deputies were already more likely Kolomoisky’s emissaries; a large block from their exit was neither cold nor hot. In this case, the president’s authority will not suffer,” says political scientist Andrei Zolotarev.

MURDER OF MANJIKA. Another high-profile case is the story of the murder of SBU officer Viktor Mandzik on March 21 in Volnovakha, which became another reason for the departure of deputy Denisenko from the BPP faction. According to the SBU, Denisenko’s assistant Denis Gordeev killed him. According to law enforcement officers, Mandzik tried not to miss the trucks with contraband that Gordeev’s accomplices were trying to smuggle.

And the latest story can rather be called an incident: commenting on the murder of an officer, on March 25, Poroshenko said that Ukrainians were robbed by “cynical Banderas” with weapons in their hands. He later admitted that he had made a mistake and reacted ironically to his mistake, publishing on Facebook photos of himself in uniform with the “cynical Bandera” badge.

According to Zolotarev, if just a week ago the head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaichenko loudly announced Gordeev’s criminal group, now they are clearly trying to slow down the case and hush up the political component: “This murder will not have political consequences for the president.”

RATINGS. According to political scientist Vadim Karasev, high-profile stories around the BPP will not greatly affect the rating of the presidential party. And the latest scandal with Kolomoisky is directly related to the presidential party’s preparations for local elections. The expert is confident that the ratings of the president and the BPP may even increase slightly. One of the reasons is the active preparation of the political force for future elections: “The change of governors in a number of regions is not accidental. The main task now is to get representation throughout Ukraine. If, for example, the “Opposition Bloc” mainly counts on voters in the East, then the BPP is aimed at all regions. Look – there is a new governor in Dnepropetrovsk, a new governor in Chernigov, and the same thing in Ternopol and Kharkov. I think that at the next elections the positions of the political forces will be distributed as follows: the first place will be taken by the BPP, the second place may well be taken by “Samopomich”, in the third – by the “Opposition Bloc”, which is returning to big politics, “Batkivshchyna” will increase its ratings, “Radicals” of Lyashko will remain at the same level, the “Popular” Front will fall greatly, but will not fall out of politics.”

And professor of political science Alexei Garan adds that the fall in the Popular Front’s rating looks more tragic compared to all other ratings: “The figure of 16.1% is not final, because these are percentages of the total number of respondents, if we count all the voters who will come for the elections, it will be slightly higher. In addition, the BPP can get part of the Popular Front electorate for itself. Of course, the elections will be a test for the government, which is now much criticized – but it all depends on who voters will hold responsible for economic policy. Judging by the latest sociology, they associate the decline of the economy with the personality of Arseniy Yatsenyuk.”

“The latest sociology shows that the scandals surrounding the BPP have not yet created serious problems for the presidential party – there is no such catastrophic decline as in the case of the Popular Front. But everything flows, everything changes. What could hit the ratings of the presidential party is the brewing confrontation with the team of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Here the scandal will have much greater consequences than in the case of Kolomoisky,” says Andrey Zolotarev.

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