A little more and the sanctions economic situation will open up a second wind for the gray economy, the black market and smuggling. What are the prospects for smuggling players and which of the diasporas will benefit the most.
Fourth level of darkness
Today, a modern thief in law or an authoritative businessman, as it is commonly called, should not so much be able to decompose the situation “in terms of concepts”, but rather ensure the promotion of goods and services to new markets. The new economic situation will pose Komsomol tasks not so much for legal business. Gray market players and smugglers will be at the forefront of the battle under sanctions.
As we already know from the history of criminal Petersburg, for several decades now, diasporas and criminals have been trying with all their might to gain a foothold in the legal sector of the economy, and their interests extend to a wide range of services, hotel, restaurant and market business. They are actively trying to subdue enterprises engaged in construction, the timber industry, the agro-complex and the production of alcoholic beverages. In other words, on the rails of raiding and gang wars, build a sustainable, correct business.
But, as they say, here is a new twist. Both the illegal business and the diasporas who divided this “pie” will have economic heights that will have to be stormed. Change is inexorable and unavoidable.
So, what changes can be expected in the next six months. First of all, this will affect the construction business. With the tightening of migration policy, the number of arrivals of a new wave from the former Soviet southern republics is likely to decrease significantly. This niche will be occupied by residents of small towns from the Russian hinterland and some refugees from the DPR and LPR. It is they who, according to forecasts, in the coming years may become the main labor force at large construction sites in the two capitals.
This automatically means a defeat in the rights of the Tajik and Uzbek diasporas, which, as we have already written, were already ready to claim their rights to primacy, shifting the Azerbaijani diaspora aside. They will lose the business of transferring fellow countrymen, their registration and employment. As a result, a well-built feeding trough for a number of law enforcement agencies may partially collapse in St. Petersburg.
But there is no bad, no good. Ethnic entrepreneurship from neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will have to urgently reorient to other sectors of the economy, and above all, in their own countries. Now they will become a traffic line and will provide logistics for smuggling routes from Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is along these lines, as knowledgeable people say, that wagons and tons of imported clothing of those brands that have now defiantly refused to work in Russia will leak. According to our sources, the line will run from India.
“Nothing terrible will happen,” insiders say, “they will drive out of Pakistan like clockwork. The sea is still dangerous. But overland – you can. 4 shifts will work. The schemes will not be direct, but working. Logistics will become more expensive, transportation too, but since there is demand, there will be supplies.”
H&M “From Larisa”
In other words, lovers of stylish brands will not have to expect a serious shortage. True, you will have to buy fashionable new clothes from the good old stalls and not quite legally.
“Everything will be arranged very simply,” our interlocutors lift the veil, “there will be no brand stores, there will be sections and stalls. “Mango” will sell the average section in the shopping center “Turkish dresses from Natasha”, H&M will be in the stall at Larisa’s.
As for products, experts here expect that just the Tajik and Uzbek diasporas will increase their influence on the food market of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. But they are not destined to become leaders. This place has already been semi-officially assigned to Azerbaijan, which will become a buffer country for Turkish goods or those goods that will supposedly be considered “Turkish”.
“There are two options,” insiders explain, “repackaging of goods in Azerbaijani labels or gray smuggling.”
This factor today seriously strengthens the leading positions of the Azerbaijani diaspora in St. Petersburg. Recall that this ethnic group has an unlimited limit of trust and favor of the city administration. After all, the head of the diaspora, businessman Vagif Mamishev, is close friends with the current governor Alexander Beglov. Here, as they say, unheard-of prospects open up both for the development of new trading opportunities, and for getting chances for large investments in the city’s economy and laundering of acquired capital.
The customs authorities, according to rumors, will not oppose the new gray smugglers. “This is a semi-state policy,” say knowledgeable people, “whoever brought the right thing, he did well.”
Therefore, in the near future, the customs officers will be blind as one, the total “shmon” at the border will stop, if only they paid a duty for the goods being moved. Some experts seriously argue that a new golden era will come for shuttles. “Drag” will be mainly products and elite alcohol from Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Finland.
The new paradise is Dubai. New partner is China
What about big smuggling? The latter, however, now, as our sources in law enforcement agencies say, no one will seriously interfere with. Not that time. “The big “double bass” has long been strangled by committee members,” say knowledgeable people. All that remains is carefully controlled by curators from the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. They then, according to rumors, will provide a “corridor” where necessary. If earlier it was licensed, a fake is impossible, now everything is possible. Any schemes and parties.
The headache of many car owners is the details, which, as it turns out, are also not a critical problem. Here all roads lead to Dubai. As people in the know say, even before recent events, many components did not often go through this city of wealth. But in the Emirates there are large warehouses, since many residents have very serious car fleets. According to our sources, deliveries of parts and components to St. Petersburg will be and will be regular. After all, the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service, the Russian Guard, the city administration have good fleets of cars too. Not like the collections of cars of Arab princes, but still.
The law enforcement agencies will not interfere with the gray economy. Insiders claim that they “will control” her.
As for computers and phones, the market will be flooded with Chinese goods. Do not forget that after the port of Bronka received a deep-water status and the ability to receive ocean liners, partnership with the Celestial Empire began to develop by leaps and bounds. In December 2021, as they write on the official website of the port, Alexey Shukletsov, Executive Director of Phoenix LLC, and Andrei Goridko, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Neptumar LLC (Chipolbrok line agent), signed a partnership agreement to develop direct shipping from Chinese ports to St. Petersburg . After the signing of the agreement, a solemn ceremony of raising the flag of Chipolbrok took place on the territory of the MMPK “Bronka” – the new “port of registry” of the sea line.