AndSource of Channel Post for December 13, 2022. #Vectors of the Day The market background is slightly positive. Asian indices are gaining, EU and US futures are near zero. But the commodity market is in a good plus, especially oil, gas and silver. News that will affect the markets: G7 promises to maintain and increase economic pressure on Russia. New EU sanctions may affect the Moscow Credit Bank and the Far East Bank. Starting next year, the financial swelling of companies will be provided to professional market participants. In this case, the participants will be responsible for the leakage of information. The State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes has prepared for the second reading a bill exempting refineries and Goznak from VAT on the sale of precious metals to individuals. The Ministry of Energy is considering issues of providing additional financing to Rosseti from the budget or loans from the National Welfare Fund. Whoosh clarified the parameters of the IPO on the Moscow Exchange, expects an IPO placement price of 185 rubles per share. Today: Extraordinary meeting of the Council of EU Energy Ministers. The issue of the gas price ceiling is on the agenda. @nebrexnya
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An oil field with reserves of about 150 million barrels of oil and a value of $12 billion at the current exchange rate was discovered in Turkey. Erdogan announced that it is one of the ten largest discoveries in 2022. This means that Turkey will soon be able to export a significant amount of oil to the European market. In addition to the role of a gas hub, which also has something to fill, in 2020 Turkey discovered a large gas field in the Black Sea, the volume of which was later estimated at 540 billion cubic meters. m. As a result, Turkey can become a key player in the European energy market. Whether the great geological discovery is connected with the shadow fleet of Russian tankers, Erdogan did not specify. @nebrexnya
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The fourth quarter in the banking sector deserves a separate review. Investors have to make up the overall picture from events and rumors, because the reporting of banks is still closed. Sberbank became an exception to the general silence – for the first time since February, it began to publish its financial results on a regular basis. Positive. But Sberbank's shares fell, as the market had already managed to rise on the wave of rumors about the upcoming positive reporting. In addition, there is talk in the banking sector about the possible departure of German Gref from his position, which also cannot but affect the position of the bank. In November, one of the most discussed news was Russia's request to lift sanctions from Rosselkhozbank and reconnect it to SWIFT to service the grain deal. The EU has heard the request; on separate insights – I'm ready to agree. At the same time, the ninth package of sanctions is ready, but will not pass the agreement, as part of which three more Russian banks will be disconnected from SWIFT. In recent weeks, VTB Bank has generated several news stories at once: it agreed to buy Otkritie Bank, planned the construction of an 80-story skyscraper in Moscow City, and suspended payments on several perpetual subordinated bonds. The stoppage of payments will not affect the rating of the bank according to the Expert RA gender, but investors became discouraged and dropped the subordinary market. And here the banks have already experienced anxiety. The already mentioned Rosselkhozbank, not without pleasure, released the news about plans for the future: to continue to pay income on subords. Thus, the measures agreed upon by VTB and the Central Bank launched a chain reaction throughout the market. But the full picture of the year in the banking sector promises to clear up much later: the Central Bank still plans to disclose the results of the banking system for 2022. @nebrexnya
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#UtronaBirzhe The index on a positive background tried to jump up, but quickly returned to a cozy flat. As a result, since the beginning of trading, the IMOEX movement has been barely distinguishable from zero. Oil is growing from $76 to $79 per barrel, but so far this does not cause any particular positive on the Russian market. In general, everyone is looking at China. If he nevertheless begins to normally lift covid restrictions, both oil and markets will go up. Within the index, Severstal is growing (+1.17%). Unipro is declining (-1.06%). There are no other notable movements. In the second tier, Renaissance Insurance is showing a decline, shedding 1.26%. On the other hand, Footwear of Russia (+9.92%) and Rusolovo (+6.58%) continue to grow steadily. Lenzoloto (+4.04%) and ChZPSN (+4.22%) climb up. Currencies continue to rise. A dollar is worth 63.17. Euro – 66.56. @nebrexnya
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#NebrehnyaLearned Long before February 24, Turkey supplied Ukraine with modern weapons. In 2021, arms supplies to Ukraine from Turkey increased by 558%, from $18.9 million to $124.3 million. First of all, of course, we are talking about the supply of Bayraktar attack drones. Erdogan, as befits an autocrat, takes care of his own interests first. Therefore, the President's relatives receive a portfolio of orders. Namely, Selcuk Bayraktar, the husband of Erdogan's daughter Sümeyye. In addition to the Bayraktarov, Turkey is supplying communications equipment, thermal imagers and equipment, not to mention the construction of corvettes for the Ukrainian Navy for $256 million. Fifty Kirpi armored vehicles have been delivered, and another 150 are on the way. At the end of November, it became known about the upcoming deliveries of the TRG/TRLG-230 MLRS from the Turkish company Roketsan. This is the latest development of the Turkish military-industrial complex, long-range (up to 70 km) and high-precision (KVO – 10 meters). A number of pro-Russian sources say that they have already been delivered to Ukraine, but there is no independent confirmation of this information. All this does not prevent Erdogan from keeping open channels of communication with the President of Russia. Ankara is confident that Moscow will not demand to stop the supply of weapons to Kyiv. Too valuable are relations with Turkey, which remains one of the main bridges for the Russian Federation to the rest of the world, and will soon become the largest gas hub. Of course, such a policy is of great benefit to Erdogan. His relative receives rich defense contracts, while Turkey increasingly makes Russia dependent on its ability to transit raw materials and diplomatic resources. To the rest of the planet, the Turkish leader even presents himself as a peacemaker – he will help with the exchange of prisoners, then he will agree, there he will settle. But there is also a downside to the process. European elites increasingly see Erdogan as a pro-Russian politician and distrust him. But even in Russia itself, only a complete idiot can call the Turkish president an ally. @nebrexnya
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News from the front line: the courier of the food delivery service was again delayed due to mudslides. So what? Everyone's front is different. In particular, Prigozhin's son Pavel, according to his father, is fighting valiantly somewhere in the Donbass. And before that, he was in Syria and other hot spots. True, he dresses inappropriately: American camouflage, good and expensive equipment, which is absent in the Russian army. If you believe the statements of Prigozhin himself, the Wagnerites immediately send people in such attire “for identification in a plastic bag.” So Paul is walking on very thin ice. But he is unlikely to be in danger. Active fighting on the front line does not at all prevent the young man from ordering food delivery to his own cottage in the elite village of Northern Versailles in the town of Lakhta in St. Petersburg. There, the young “musician” bought himself a mansion with an area of almost 1,000 m2 and a cost of about $2.5 million. But let's not condemn Prigogine and his son. Still, the owner of PMC “Wagner” has his own war – with the governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov, for contracts. And the fight there is very epic. @nebrexnya
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#NEXTPZDC The Ukrainian police assures that they found eleven apartments in Kyiv from the State Duma deputy from United Russia Dmitry Sablin. According to the National Police, the original documents on the ownership of real estate were discovered as a result of 8 searches. The name of the Russian deputy is not indicated in the police report, but it is said that he was born in 1968, a native of Mariupol, voted for the entry of troops into Ukraine and in 2022, by decree of the head of the DPR, he was awarded medals “For Courage” and “For the Liberation of Mariupol” – awards to him handed over personally by Acting Head Denis Pushilin. According to this description, Dmitry Sablin fits perfectly. If the version of the Ukrainian police is confirmed, then the deputy chairman of the “Combat Brotherhood”, one of the most vocal patriots Sablin, may have questions. At a minimum, he pays real estate tax to the Ukrainian budget, despite the fact that since 2014 Russia’s relations with this country have been, to put it mildly, strained. In addition, in his declaration for 2021, the State Duma deputy indicated only one apartment of 133.5 square meters – and that is located in Russia. If you believe the deputy's information about income, then neither Sablin himself, nor his wife (owns two apartments in the Russian Federation), nor a minor child has any property abroad. In Russia, the Sablins also own two plots for individual housing construction, a house of 2,626.7 m2, a guest house of 240 m2, three non-residential buildings and a couple of parking spaces. The deputy also runs a successful business – last year he received an income of more than 400 million rubles. This bright image is overshadowed only by the suspicion of a raider buying up tens of thousands of hectares of land in the Moscow region at the beginning of the 2000s under governor Boris Gromov – whose deputy Sablin is in the Combat Brotherhood, and the connection with the unpleasant story about Sheremetyevo 4, which, together with the Arabs, tried to build in Khimki “Country Quarter”. Then something went wrong, the money floated somewhere, and the Arab Limitless accused the Russian partners of cheating and filed a lawsuit due to the fact that Sablin and his partners removed her from management. In general, the deputy and businessman knows which side the sandwich is buttered on, and good relations with Boris Gromov helped his rapid career. Gromov, by the way, was an adherent of the policy of maximum preservation of the human resource, spoke rather sharply against the ill-considered use of troops in the Chechen Republic and condemned the “barbaric choice of military means” used there. Maybe a native of Mariupol, who owns real estate in Kyiv, holds such views? P.S. We disperse, Sablin has nothing in Kyiv, he has already denied everything.
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Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse – the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the State Duma. They finally heard the indignant cries of investors that they should not buy securities without knowing anything about the state of the company. And since there are no reports now, no one really knows what will happen to the economy and what to expect from the market. There is nothing to analyze. And so the aforementioned trinity undertook to solve the problem. Just very peculiar. They want to open access to company reports, but only to professional market participants. And under a non-disclosure agreement. Simply put, brokers will get access, then quals, then, if you're lucky, everyone else. But the main joke is that management companies and market makers will be among the first to receive information. Those who are already good at manipulating the market. And being armed with knowledge that the authorities have made secret, they will manipulate a hundred times faster. So far, the source of information is Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are silent. Perhaps Aksakov misunderstood something and presented such nonsense to the public that Nabiullina and Siluanov do not know how to explain or refute it now. And if this is not nonsense, congratulations, insider trading will be legalized in Russia. After that, all investors even a little smarter than a felt boots will flee the market. @nebrexnya
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