Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 12/12/2022

Source Channel posts for December 12, 2022. Microfinance institutions are losing income. In November, repeat borrowers used their approved loans by 30-80%. At least two years. At the same time, the backbone of MFO clients – about 80% – are repeat borrowers. Their checks are also higher, sometimes twice, than the primary ones. And that customer base has curbed its appetites. Most likely, people are simply afraid to take out microcredit, having difficulty finding a job or being threatened with layoffs. I wonder what proportion of MFI problems will be added by the mobilization and non-fulfillment of obligations on microcredits by those called to the front? @nebrexnya
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#UtronaBirzhe The index is sad again today, but still within the framework of a steady flat trend. IMOEX has lost 0.4% since the start of trading. Norilsk Nickel (-1.45%) and Alrosa (-1.35%) are leading the decline. The latter works out the negative, it was overlaid with an additional tax. Only Magnit is growing (+1.25%). There are no other noteworthy movements in the index, that's why it is flat. Against the backdrop of Brent oil at $ 75.93 per barrel, there are no growth prospects yet, unless oil turns around. In general, this is a fairly likely scenario, technically the zone is suitable for this. So the reversal of the index within the day is quite possible, but not above the outset border. Footwear of Russia (+5.83%), Lenzoloto (+7.52%) and UAC (+4.4%) frolic in the second tier. If India really starts supplying aircraft components, this will not only save airlines, but also help Russian manufacturers somehow assemble aircraft. The Chinese are mostly negative, Russian papers have not been seen in big falls. Currencies are rising. Dollar – 62.65. Euro – 66.07. @nebrexnya
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MyOffice wants money. The New Cloud Technologies company, which replaces imports of Microsoft and Google office suites, asked the government for 1.7 billion rubles to finalize the project. And this despite the fact that the company offered a completely finished product back in 2015. It just didn’t take off above the Mail.Ru Cloud, where they still managed to integrate it. In 2019, New Cloud Technologies even released an application for the Russian mobile operating system Aurora, which just recently dealt a new blow to the budget of 480 billion. So the appetites of office developers are still modest. Perhaps they just want to brand their products with MyOffice Word, MyOffice Excellence, and MyOffice Point of Power. Works just for 1.7 billion. @nebrexnya
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Shopping centers have found a use. They began, no, not to burn, but to sell. For residential development. In Moscow, about a dozen shopping centers have already been sold in this way. In the future, residential development may appear in their place. Here is the salvation from bankruptcy from where they did not expect. All the same, the market price of such assets now hardly exceeds the value of the land under them. Traffic is dropping, many foreign brands have themselves been points of attraction for buyers. And the costs of maintaining huge empty areas are only growing. More than 200 malls are now put up for sale, since the beginning of the year the offer has grown by 14%. And half of all malls may go bankrupt in the near future. At the same time, land in Moscow is expensive, many shopping centers are located in very successful areas of the city. And buying them for development is a perfectly sound idea. And now the most interesting. Shopping centers in Russia are burning one after another. The Stroypark hypermarket in Balashikha was on fire today. Last week, a huge fire broke out in Mega-Khimki. In total, since the beginning of November, a dozen large shopping centers have burned down in Russia. And this is very similar to win-win schematosis. The shopping center is on fire, the owner receives insurance, and then sells the remains of the building to the developer for residential development. This is the explanation for the sharp increase in fires. @nebrexnya
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Sergey Gordeev, the king of unfinished projects from the PIK Group, made good money on the construction of a kindergarten in St. Petersburg, deciding not to give it to the city, but to drive it at the maximum price. With the governor Alexander Beglov, who hates the cultural capital, Gordeev famously agreed that he would no longer maintain a kindergarten for 140 places in his Orlovsky Park residential complex, but would receive 332 million rubles from the treasury for it and send these damn kids with their demanding parents to hell. Gordeev really did not want to take on the construction of a kindergarten, but he had to: this is the condition for issuing a permit for residential development. However, the owner of PIK managed to heat up the budget even here – some developers transfer such objects for free, but Beglov provided more pleasant conditions for Gordeev. The cost of a “square”, however, was not very pleasant for the city: about 128 thousand rubles. For comparison: in Podolsk, near Moscow, a square meter of preschool educational institution cost 114.7 thousand rubles, and in the prestigious Moscow district “Airport” they are building a garden for 150 seats for 237 million rubles – a difference of 10 seats and almost 100 million. After kindergarten, as Gordeev hopes , he will shove a school for 825 places for a billion rubles, which will be a good moral compensation for the buckets of slops that the new settlers in Orlovsky Park deservedly pour over the owner of the PIK. Because there is a reason. At first, equity holders were amazed at how far in reality (not like in advertising) the metro station “Prospect of Education” is from the residential complex, calling their houses an abandoned abandoned house. After that, we looked into the waters of the Kamenka River, which flows not far from the buildings – and were horrified by the dirt in it. The environmental background has become the cause of the indignation of those who carelessly bought apartments. After all, the location turned out to have industrial zones with a working Novartis medicinal plant and a machine-building “Reductor”. Having entered the apartments, the tenants received 60 jambs each, which PIK is not going to remove. There was crumpled plumbing, crooked floors with terrible drops, parquet that survived the invasion of a herd of elephants, poorly closing frames, scratched windows, and drafts blow from all the cracks, because the children are constantly sick. And then there is the terrible noise from the railway and smelly emissions from vehicles. Well, the cherry was the close proximity to the Institute. Ioffe and the Institute of Physics and Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences – not the most environmentally respectable scientific institutions with hazardous experiments and waste. So the big fellows work in PIK: they drove the social program at a high price, sold apartments in an “environmentally friendly” residential complex, and at the next stage, you can even put concrete blocks in the middle of a filthy wasteland – and let the residents themselves dig in and settle down as best they can. Well, thanks for this must be said to the inspirer of victories – Sergey Eduardovich Gordeev.
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The Ministry of Finance decided to fill the budget with the help of another pension reform. And although, of course, it is not as scandalous as raising the retirement age, it is very curious. Officials propose to create a tool for investing in a future pension for everyone, modeled on IIS. It will be insured by analogy with a bank deposit and will allow investing in Russian securities. In particular, in OFZs issued by the Ministry of Finance itself, infrastructure bonds and corporate instruments. Some authorized operators will accept the money, and it will be possible to withdraw it only in case of “acute vital necessity”. Interestingly, a pension is a rather urgent need? The severity criteria have not yet been clarified. There is no understanding of the extent to which the investor will be involved in capital management. Will it not turn out that the same authorized organization will choose the papers for him. If so, how will such investment differ from the work of NPFs, besides the fact that citizens will be offered to pay for it separately? To understand what is wrong with this whole idea, just look at the quotes of Russian companies. Now those who invested in Russian stocks 10 years ago are at zero, the rest are in the red. If the set of instruments is limited only to bonds, this will not make it any easier – the yield on them is low, and the risks of default increase along with the degradation of the economy. How long will corporate bonds of Russian companies be a conservative instrument, if a year ago they were, for example, corporate Eurobonds? Could it have occurred to someone then that VTB would refuse to pay coupons on subordinated bonds? The time for an idea is extremely unfortunate. It so happened that there are no reliable papers on the Russian market now. Even OFZ will no longer be promoted as an alternative to a bank deposit. And it is necessary, the Ministry of Finance has a lot of them, you need to try to drive them to someone. At least for physicists. And one more important question: will the insurance promised for such accounts cover only the risks of default on bonds or fluctuations in the value of securities too? @nebrexnya
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A new financial and political union was born in Novosibirsk, threatening to redistribute the regional construction market. Two large developers, the owners of the companies Rastsvetay and Swifts, Dmitry Savelyev and Igor Belokobylsky, agreed on mutual assistance and coordination of spheres of influence. Falling sales in a highly competitive market require developers to be more flexible. The recent divorce of partners in Swifts left Belokobylsky without a controlled political lobby, the deputy bloc of the company, headed by the former chairman of the board of directors, Ilya Polyakov, set off for free swimming. Now the functions of promoting Swifts' projects in the corridors of city government are taken over by Blooming's lobbyists. Saveliev, the partnership with Belokobylsky brings additional money for political projects without the obligation to move someone in the elections. They have already played enough with their deputies in Swifts. It turned out to be cheaper to hire strangers than to fulfill Polyakov's inflated requests. “Flourish” and “Swifts” are among the leaders in terms of housing volumes. The coordinated tactics of the two developers, while guaranteeing the necessary decisions of the mayor's office, is fraught with problems for developers with competing projects.
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Nothing good awaits the top managers of Russian companies. Half of them believe that the economy will not recover until 2027. 14% do not expect improvements at all until 13 years later, in 2035. Only a third share the forecasts of the authorities, who promise to fix everything by 2025. The technological lag scares the tops. The pace of innovation has already been declining since 2012, and now it has simply disappeared. So the overwhelming majority of doubters, 70% of respondents. It seems that it will not be possible to replace innovations with imports, since potential innovators themselves are sure of this. 80% of business leaders cite accelerating digitalization as a window of opportunity. The growth of the IT sector, the development of e-commerce and so on. But he also has questions – IT people are leaving, and there is practically nowhere to buy elementary electronics. And its in the foreseeable future will not appear. Perhaps the most telling thing in the results is the reliance on “Russian ingenuity.” 69% trust her. And not Manturov with his import substitution and Siluanov with his forecasts. @nebrexnya
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In the Omsk region, a quarry was discovered where barrels with waste from the Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant were dumped. Of course, illegally – according to the papers, they went through the recycling procedure. The firm “Ekosoyuz” was responsible for it. The customer decided to save money or the contractor deceived, now Rosprirodnadzor will figure it out, the specialists are already working with might and main. The main thing is that they find only chemical waste. And then at this plant they also produce nuclear fuel. Moreover, a lot – 6% of the total world consumption. @nebrexnya
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Results and forecasts of the Russian stock market #Investfactor Nothing has been happening on the Moscow Exchange for the sixth week. The index fell as much as 0.12%. Interestingly, the introduction of a price ceiling and an embargo on Russian oil, as well as the threat of new sanctions, did not affect physicists in any way, of which, according to the new report of the exchange, 80% are already bidding. That is, foreign funds, which were the majority on the stock exchange before February 24, would begin to leak such information, and now the situation has changed dramatically and the Russians themselves, who trade their own market for external threats, are somehow more and more indifferent. But as soon as the second wave of mobilization begins … all Russian actions will go down together and cheerfully. Corporate events: #BELU Founder and head of the company Alexander Mechetin suddenly left Beluga. Moreover, he reduced the share of shares from 58% to 39.38%. The company does not comment on the reasons for leaving, however, apparently, Mechetin removed himself from the information field in order to avoid sanctions on his company. It should be taken into account that Beluga has both imports and exports, which the company apparently does not want to lose. #LKOH Shareholders of LUKOIL expectedly approved both dividend payments and will pay a total of ₽793 for 2021 and 9 months of 2022. For some reason, the market is in no hurry to redeem the dividend yield of 17%. Apparently because it does not expect the same powerful payments next year. And not in vain: the embargo of Western countries on oil and oil products affects LUKOIL directly. #SBER Net profit of Sber in November 2022 amounted to ₽124 billion, an increase of 22% compared to last year. Revenue increased by 12%. It's just awesome. At the greenest bank in the country, the profitability is not only maintained, but also growing! As if nothing is happening at all, as if 2019 is in the yard. Marvelous. Bank No. 1 should obviously be affected by the decline in citizens' incomes, and the curtailment of preferential mortgages, and the deterioration of the business climate, and for them the second month at least that. Maybe even dividends will be given. #AFKS Vladimir Yevtushenkov told us all that AFK Sistema shareholders can count on dividends for 2022. Like, before that money was held back because of the turbulent market and new acquisitions, and next year we are ready to pay. If they really pay, and Binnopharm is also brought somewhere in Hong Kong for an IPO, then it will be very good. What to look out for this week? ???? November 28 – Phosagro, the last day to buy shares for dividends for 9 months of 2022 ???? December 15 – AFK Sistema, 3Q 2022 IFRS results ???? December 16 — meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate @nebrexnya

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