Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 07/30/2023

Another UAV attack on Moscow. Now Moscow City, the IQ quarter, where several federal ministries are located, has suffered. Of course, it is difficult to call it attacks on decision-making centers, especially since, according to official information, the UAVs were successfully shot down. That is, Moscow City was not their goal, according to this official information. But we have yet to hear interpretations of the event. In the meantime, it continues to place bets – will the market react to a blow to the center of Moscow’s business activity or will it again ignore the event? @nebrexnya
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A curious incident happened to a client of Rosselkhozbank. When opening the “Harvest” card, the resident of Elista either did not ask, or did not understand, or simply forgot about the cashback due. The young man got a job at a dairy farm. Received a salary, spent something. Meanwhile, 120 thousand bonus points have accumulated. Now everyone who told the RSHB client about the points due to him is making bets: he will spend bonuses on a trip or buy a powerful computer and become an IT specialist. @nebrexnya
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​Exclusive BCS forecast. The Russian stock market in August: forecasts and estimates The treasured 3,000 points on the Moscow Exchange index were expected by autumn, but the market decided otherwise, and by the end of July it reached the next target, experts at BCS World of Investments report in a forecast prepared specifically for #Nebrekhni . And this fact cannot but please the shareholders and experts, who made the right bet on the restoration of the Russian securities market. At the same time, the shorts are forced to retreat quickly, and this serves as additional fuel for takeoff. “Of course, a significant factor in the stock market rate is the devaluation of the ruble, but not only. Corporate dividends and the accelerated growth of depositary receipts of domestic companies in anticipation of mass re-domiciliation to their homeland and friendly countries ensured a powerful rally for the entire market,” said Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments. Further on the round bar, psychological resistance can be found, and someone wants to take profits. But from a tactical point of view, the market is capable of more. The next benchmark is 3200 p. on the index, where there will already be more significant technical resistance, due to the bottom-up test of the local rebound maximum of January 2022. The only question is the depth of a possible correction from the level of 3000 p., however, if there is a rollback, then this will create an even more interesting moment for entering the market for the future. An important market factor is the monetary driver. Expectations of the Central Bank’s toughness at the meeting on July 21 were also justified, with a step of +100 bp. not surprised. And given the strength of pro-inflationary factors, it is likely that in September the regulator will develop a new cycle of monetary policy. At the same time, experts expect the ruble exchange rate to be higher, with the correction of overheated foreign currencies with the nearest and fastest target of at least 87 per US dollar. And so in the fall, they can reach the region 85-83.5. This suggests that our export-oriented market will continue to feel supported by the relatively weak ruble in the medium term, and exporters’ shares may continue to rise in price. At the same time, oil is clearly looking up: a barrel of Brent has updated quarterly highs under $84, and the spread with Urals has narrowed significantly. BCS positively assesses: ????Oil industry and gas companies (LUKOIL, Tatneft, Surgutneftegaz-up, Novatek). ???? Should wake up after a two-month hibernation and VTB – reporting is very strong and the paper is able to go to 2.6 kopecks. ???? TCS Group shares are unlikely to suffer much against the backdrop of sanctions against Tinkoff Bank, as the business has reoriented to the domestic market, and the papers, after an emotional spill on the news, will soon be able to go even to annual highs. With caution, experts suggest looking at the papers of companies with a high debt burden, whose business is focused on the domestic market, that is, telecoms may continue to lag behind. @nebrexnya
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It is reported that Uralsib Bank is very dissatisfied with the behavior of Citibank cardholders, who are forcibly transferred under the wing of a Russian financial institution. Uralsib bought the retail business of Citi, which is leaving the Russian Federation, the Asian region and a number of other markets. The real amount of the transaction has been kept secret for the time being: it amounted to something between 40 billion and zero 5 billion ₽. Needed a loan. Now it turns out that hundreds of thousands of Russians – customers of Citibank prefer to close their cards, and they do not peck at the super-duper-profitable offer from Uralsib to reopen cards. Units are moving. Previously, it was assumed that the average customer of City is richer than the average customer of Uralsib (formerly BashCreditBank) and has higher requirements for service and brand. But not as much? Now Russian bankers have a question: why was it necessary to buy from foreigners all this crowd of ungrateful people along with their cards? The fate of the debtors of Citibank, whose obligations were also bought out by Uralsib, may turn out to be worse. They say that the Russian bank is planning to tear three skins from them, “turn on” an increased percentage of debt and set off collectors in order to at least somehow recoup for the catastrophe with fleeing clients.
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At least from the inside, Russia is not yet closed by the Iron Curtain. The government did not support the Communists’ bill to withdraw from the IMF and the World Bank Group. There are no mechanisms to exclude Russia. And leaving the organization on your own means depriving yourself of a major channel of communication with the outside world. Not to mention the fact that Russia has invested a lot of resources in the IMF, and the economic bloc of the government has no desire to burn them. Yes, and if you go out now, loudly slamming the door, they may not be taken back. In addition, according to the government, withdrawal from the IMF will make it difficult to interact with BRICS partners. True, this partnership is of little use now – even the BRICS bank refuses to finance projects in Russia. But we must somehow look to the future. @nebrexnya
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Russian oil prices are constantly fluctuating, export earnings and taxes from it – too. The federal budget deficit will have to be closed either by emission or by devaluation. What will happen to the ruble in this case? And how much time is left until the day X? If you want to understand how events will develop further, what will happen to the currency and stock markets, what instruments are now more reliable and how to save your savings, subscribe to the channel @karfagen He writes not only interesting, but useful – for those who are used to actively manage your capital, your savings. Follow @karfagen
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A bank with a bipolar Raiffeisenbank consistently worsens the conditions for customers. Literally takes a marketing textbook and does the opposite. At the same time, his services are still in demand in Russia. This is a one of a kind case. The bank is very reluctant to leave the Russian market, but customers still continue to use its services and literally keep it. What is happening, why is it happening and what will happen next, #nonsense will tell. @nebrexnya
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Top Regional Events All money flows to Moscow, but is “made” in the regions. My colleagues and I have prepared a selection of iconic regional events from the new reality this week. The accents of the North are outraged. Tagil residents will pay 18 million for City Day. Almost all the contracts went to one local businessman, Alexei Dorokhin, and the Parade and Triada firms associated with him. Video projection on the walls of the city drama theater. 3D mapping will cost ₽4.9 million. Fireworks over the Nizhny Tagil pond – ₽3 million. Flyboarders’ performance on the pond – ₽540 thousand. The Tatar Yakuza is sure that the detention of Rustem Gumerov, the chief power engineer of the construction company Alabuga Development, for bribery was only a logical outcome of the events that took place in the construction sector of the SEZ. The security forces presented Gumerov with an attempt to get a bribe of 2.2 million rubles for resolving issues with the conclusion of contracts for the performance of contract work between Alabuga Development LLC and a local enterprise, as well as for the subsequent hassle-free signing of acts of completed work and, in general, future cooperation. Gangster Samara reports that Olga Agafonova, former First Deputy Minister of Health of the region, has been detained in Astrakhan. She is accused of the fact that in June 2020 she demanded from her friend, the director of a company for the development and production of diagnostic products, to provide free assistance to the Ministry of Health in the form of a free supply of covid tests. In exchange for this, the first deputy minister promised patronage when concluding contracts for the supply of medical devices to the ministry. In December 2020, 2 state contracts were signed for the amount of more than 48 million rubles for the supply of PCR tests. Most of the reagents were expired. Kuznetsk kaylo discovered that the hotels of the first stage of the “New Sheregesh” in Kuzbass will be managed by a company from Thailand. In recent years, the tourist flow to Sheregesh has almost doubled. In winter alone, more than a million skiers come to the resort. The occupancy of existing hotels in winter reaches 90%, in summer – about 40%. But can a company from the country of eternal summer manage a ski resort? The Crimean Channel is ironic: the Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, announced a historic breakthrough in the international relations of Sevastopol. Only six months have passed since the Russian outpost of federal significance signed an economic agreement with the province of Massawa in Eritrea, whose ambassador said that his country did not yet understand the prospects for such cooperation (it never happened), and here again an unprecedented sensation. Sevastopol became a partner of the municipality of Entebbe in Uganda. The new investment brothers have one thing in common: sewage without treatment flows into the Black Sea and Lake Victoria. @nebrexnya