Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 06/26/2023

​#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Asia is calm, the US and Europe show minimal growth. The commodity market is growing. Events that will affect the markets: ????The failed coup d’état. ????The CTO regime has been canceled in all regions where it was introduced. ????In Moscow – non-working day. Many companies gave up on it, many simply sent employees to work remotely, but in general, the regime is observed: traffic jams in the morning rush hour in Moscow did not exceed 2 points. ????Poland strengthens the border with Belarus. Waiting for Wagner? ????Mosbirzha and St. Petersburg Exchange work as usual. ????The dollar exchange rate in banks and exchange offices is bouncing back. Sberbank – 87.7, VTB – 87.7, Tinkoff – 86.4. Moscow Exchange – 85.1. The exchange rate, after a sharp increase, by the way, is also cooling down. ????The cost of tickets abroad also returned to normal. ????The Mosbirzhi index opened with a gap down by 0.5% and continues to decline. ????The Federation Council again proposes to ban electric scooters. ????The government did not support the bill to abolish the 13% tax on income from deposits. With such a hole in the budget, talking about tax cuts is a sin. Today: ????GOSA European Electrical Engineering. @nebrexnya
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Prigozhin and PMCs promised not to touch. Probably not, at least not yet – they still pose a colossal threat. But the “accomplices” in the same unclosed criminal case may well be imprisoned. Whom to call accomplices will be decided in the process. Those who stood in Rostov, shook hands with Prigozhin, hugged the rebels and shouted “we are for the boys,” will do just fine. But there is another question – Prigozhin has a lot of assets in Russia. Not only real estate, but also businesses. One media empire is worth something. And Prigozhin is also responsible for supplying the army with food. A criminal case can be used as a basis for legal proceedings – searches, interrogations of witnesses in order to find vulnerabilities. Because no one will dare to close or take away the business directly – the Wagners can reach Peter if something happens. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Economist, lecturer at the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Ginko, especially for #Nebrekhni, about the immediate prospects for the ruble and Russian securities: At the beginning of the week, the Russian ruble won back the losses that were observed over the weekend on the over-the-counter market, thereby proving that for it the key moment is the state of trade and balance of payments of the country. If we talk about the further dynamics of the Russian ruble, then everything depends on how much it will be possible to bring the Russian currency into foreign trade transactions. Now there is an opportunity to raise the role of the Russian ruble in the world market, especially with regard to trade with the BRICS and SCO countries. To reinforce the status of the ruble in foreign markets, it is necessary to create popular ruble benchmarks for Russian export goods, build new elements of the global financial infrastructure, when the ruble will be a means of reservation, lending and savings for participants in world trade. The launch of the digital ruble will open up additional opportunities for this. At the beginning of the week, the Russian stock market was losing 1.4% in daily movement during the day, but in the end it tried to maintain an important support level of 2750 points. In general, the Moscow Exchange Index did not sink much: since the beginning of the month, its growth has decreased to +1.39%, but the indicator itself has remained in the green zone. In dynamics since the beginning of the year, IMOEX has shown a return (+27.9%) better, the key Wall Street index is the S&P 500 (+13.25%). Despite the daily drawdown of IMOEX on Monday, June 26, shares of 32 Russian corporations went up, and from different sectors. Investors see that the market is situationally oversold and feel the potential for its further growth. @nebrexnya
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NOVATEK’s Arctic LNG-2 has risen in price to $25 billion. The additional burden will, of course, fall on the shareholders of the project, with the exception of the French TotalEnergies, which has stopped work in Russia. Novatek owns 60% in Arctic LNG-2, Chinese CNPC and CNOOC, as well as a consortium of Japanese Mitsui and JOGMEC – 10% each. Just a week ago, the head of Novatek, Leonid Mikhelson, said that the price of the project, originally set at $21.3 billion, could rise to more than $22 billion. The reason for the increase in the cost of the project was the transfer of the power supply scheme to electric drives. After the start of Russia’s special operation to protect the Donbass, European and American equipment suppliers refused to supply critical equipment to Novatek. Among them was Baker Hughes, which was supposed to supply gas turbines for the LNG process and power supply for the project. Thus, the company managed to deliver only four turbines, which Novatek will use for the LNG process on the first line. For the rest of the work, the company found a replacement in China. The capacity of Arctic LNG-2 will be 19.8 million tons per year. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Mikhelson stated that the launch of the first Arctic LNG-2 line would take place this year.
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Foreign trade is slowly deflating. Revenues to the Russian budget from customs duties decreased by 1.1 trillion rubles. By last year, the decline was 70%. And this despite the fact that just last year was the most difficult for logistics – in the seething chaos of opening and closing borders, the consignor could never be sure that his cargo would reach the addressee. There was no talk of stable supplies then. This year, it seems, the Ministry of Finance will not see the plan. The price of energy resources hardly grows, export-import stabilizes exactly until politicians come up with new sanctions or simply decisions to cover up parallel imports, as Erdogan does. So lost revenues with huge budget deficits are becoming a bigger problem. And if the price ceiling for Russian oil is lowered, the problem will become even more acute. And in such a situation, someone suggested, in all seriousness, not to levy a tax on deposits? Heretics. @nebrexnya
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#DnoNedeli Raiffeisenbank continues anti-marketing – worsening conditions for customers. Now the organization introduces a commission for account replenishment through third-party ATMs. From July 1, it will be 1.5%. Moreover, the innovation will only apply to those who bring more than 300 thousand a month to the bank – from 3.5 thousand will have to be paid for each operation. You don’t see this every day. The bank systematically and purposefully makes itself worse in order to reduce the number of customers. @nebrexnya
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​#There is an Opinion Analyst of the telegram channel RynkiMoneyVlast Sergey Ramaninov especially for #Nonbrekhni about the weakening of the yuan against the dollar and the prospects for yuan bonds: One of the reasons, in my opinion, why the yuan continues to weaken against the dollar is the lack of further measures to stimulate the Chinese economy. Also, the yuan is influenced by the outflow of capital from the domestic market and the statements of the US Federal Reserve about the possible continuation of tightening of the monetary policy. In general, it is felt that many investors have become frustrated with the way China is going through the process of recovering from Covid. Of course, speaking about the risks of investing in the Chinese currency, one should not forget that the state plays a central role in all economic issues. We cannot rule out situations where the decisions of the Chinese government may run counter to the wishes of investors. @nebrexnya
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​Results and forecasts of the Russian stock market #Investfactor Despite the fact that the political factor is now acutely dominating the markets, the emerging correction of the Moscow Exchange index was technically justified, and large dividends have already been paid and reinvested. #Nebrehnya repeatedly warned about this. Potentially, the index should come to the 2550-2600 zone. And there already think and see where to go next. Most securities are now asking for shorts on the medium-term horizon. The euphoria of this morning, when nothing seemed to have happened, did not support the upward trend for long. IMOEX is already at 2757. Corporate events: $AFKS AFK Sistema could be the beneficiary of the IPO boom announced by the Moscow Exchange. About 10 are expected this year. AFK may well make some of its subsidiaries public and make good money on it. But a nabiullin sword is looming over the Sistema – if the Central Bank raises the key rate, the cost of servicing the huge debt of the AFK will increase. And at the last meeting, the Central Bank already hinted at an increase. $NKNC Shooting continues in low-liquid securities. Nizhnekamskneftekhim flew +13.5% today in the absence of news. Because it can. Because the Central Bank did not see any manipulations in these shootings, according to the regulator, it does it itself. $PLZL The pole is asking for a technique correction. Today, the company was declining, despite the rising price of gold. Plus, delisting from the London Stock Exchange is expected in July. $VTBR VTB on Friday’s collapse fell by 7.6%. Today it was bought out, but it was possible not to buy it out – among the banks it looks the weakest of all. What to look out for this week? ????GOSA GOSA TGK-1, Unipro, RUSAL, St. Petersburg Exchange, Central Telegraph, Kuznetsky bpnka, VUSH holding, Lenta, Rosinter, TGK-1, ChKPZ, Alrosa, AFK Sistema, VTB, Gazprom, FESCO, Inarctic, Mechel , NKHP, NCSP, RusHydro, Surgutneftegaz, FGC-Rosseti, Detsky Mir. ????Closing the registers of MTS, Rosseti Kuban, Rosseti Moscow region for 2022 @nebrexnya