Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 06/20/2023

#Vectors of the Day The market background is negative. Asia looks down, the US and the EU are in a small minus. The commodities market is in the negative, only silver is adding slightly. Events that will affect the markets: ????The authorities of the EU countries agree to continue importing LNG from Russia, despite US pressure. ????Gas at the TTF terminal again costs $350 per thousand cubic meters. ???? Peskov again threatens the grain deal – he says that she has no chance. ????Companies will be fined up to 10 million rubles for leaking personal data. ????In Russia, limits on preferential mortgages are ending. They have already been spent by 86% in terms of the allocated funds and by 96% in terms of the number of loans. ????The government is discussing a ban on parallel imports of Samsung and LG smartphones, because there are Chinese counterparts. ????Avtodor in July will consider the issue of increasing fares for travel on toll roads. ????Intel will invest $25 billion in a chip manufacturing plant in Israel. ????Decision on Tatneft’s dividends is postponed: the annual meeting of shareholders did not take place due to the lack of a quorum. The next appointment is scheduled for June 30th. Today: ????Emancipation Day (liberation of slaves) in the USA. The stock markets don’t work. @nebrexnya
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From an economic standpoint, it’s even more interesting. The shortage of personnel is serious, approaching catastrophic. It is urgently necessary to return specialists from abroad, to whom the same Volodin recently spat after and told what traitors they were. So Volodin returns as best he can. And he knows how badly – threats. Only now it’s not in the style of “we will get you and take away your property”, but in the style of “they will get you there and put you in concentration camps”. The relocators will have to choose between Peter Pavel, who sits in the devil knows where and has no influence on the life of Russians abroad. And hysterical Volodin, who may soon change his mind again and advocate life-long executions. The most adequate signal in this situation was given by the Ministry of Finance, abandoning the idea of ​​increasing taxes for those who left (by the way, Volodin was one of those who demanded the introduction of a tax). Translated from political language into human language, this means “you’d better sit there, most importantly, work here. Come back when everything is fine.” @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Financial expert Aleksey Krichevsky specifically for #Nebrekhni – about the impact of the length of the working week on labor productivity: On the one hand, labor productivity and work schedule are directly correlated values. On the other hand, there are many precedents that prove that this is not entirely true. In a number of European countries, the working week does not exceed 35 hours – the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavian countries. At the same time, these states feel good in terms of the economy, and processing is always paid. At the same time, experiments were conducted in Iceland and England to transfer employees to a four-day work week – either with a day off in the middle of the working week, or with a free Friday or Monday. The results were very strong – labor productivity increased, the level of stress of employees decreased, and the effectiveness of work did not become lower, but, on the contrary, showed a slight increase. Other states are also thinking about conducting a similar experiment. If we talk about where they work the most, then these are China, South Korea and Japan – from 55 to 60 hours a week. In China, six days is approved by law, and paid vacation is only 10 days. Did it bring results? Obviously, yes – all three states are among the top most developed in the world. Is such a path possible in Russia? Extremely unlikely, due to the peculiarities of the mentality. According to measurements, in Russia a person really works 2-4 hours a day, the rest of the time essentially goes nowhere. Therefore, he will continue to look for ways to either evade work, or do it as quickly as possible. @nebrexnya
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Billionaire Alexei Mordashov sails to Busan. More precisely, his megayacht “Nord” for ~$500 million. The 142-meter ship, which happily escaped arrest in Hong Kong, and later flashed off the coast of South Africa, disappeared from radar for a long time. Now it is transmitting location information again. Someone is going to hang out at the famous South Korean resort. Or maybe it’s on business. Nord should be in Busan by June 24, if Bloomberg analysts don’t mess up and if Mordashov’s plans don’t change again. Journalists are perplexed: South Korea is an ally of the United States. Including, in part, on sanctions. However, Seoul has no claims against the owner of Severstal and his property. Foreigners, as well as happy owners of a VPN and extra time in Russia, can track the movement of Nord using this link. It is noticeable that the yacht cruises along the Russian Pacific coast, in the waters of Southeast Asian countries, etc. But this is only when the notification system is turned on and works adequately. Another yacht of Aleksey Alexandrovich, the 65-meter “Lady M” at a price of $55 million, will not be seen in the South Korean resort this year. She was arrested in Italy back in 2022. Before that, the owner put it up for sale for $ 30-35 million, but whether he managed to get money from the buyer (and throw problems on him) is unclear. By the way, Lady M is the longest aluminum yacht ever built in the USA.
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What an entertaining sight it is – attempts by Russian airlines to pay for foreign aircraft! Stolen, according to the head of the Ministry of Transport Vitaly Savelyev, the sides are now trying to pull out from foreign lessors. The funny thing here is that in the logic of Savelyev himself, the hijacker calls the owner of the car and offers to settle the issue with him, and even through the insurance. Aeroflot has 47 foreign-made aircraft under operating lease (actually, on lease). Insurance payments are not subject to sanctions, so, theoretically, it would be possible to reimburse foreign lessors for payments in the form of insurance payments. Boards will thus be legalized. The plug arose with the wording. Western lessors want to view the deal as compensation for “loss of property”, which will deprive Russian carriers of deposits and increase the price of the issue. If the aircraft is declared “lost”, carriers will have to pay the cost of the aircraft, fixed in the insurance contract, which is much higher than its residual market value. This will hit, of course, not on the budgets of airlines, but on the National Welfare Fund. The planes will be redeemed precisely at the expense of the “pod”. @nebrexnya
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ACRA has upgraded the credit rating of Uralsib Bank to BBB+ (RU), with a Stable outlook. This was facilitated by the strengthening of the bank’s business profile and expansion of the scope of activities. Uralsib is also increasing its capitalization, maintaining a high diversification of operating income, and reducing the level of problem and potentially problem loans. Getting into the sanctions lists of a credit institution will not significantly affect its activities and income structure, according to ACRA.
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Green will turn blue. They want to expel Russia from the Green Card bureau. This means that Russian auto insurance will stop working abroad. Now you can still travel under Russian policies in Turkey, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Serbia and some other countries. True, it is unlikely that it will be possible to get to Serbia – the European Union, Great Britain and Switzerland have already ceased to quote them. For its part, the Russian analogue, which the Russian Union of Motor Insurers is trying to introduce, will be called the Blue Card. Ideally, he will work in Belarus, Azerbaijan and Turkey. In the meantime, there are no specifics, you will have to take care of local OSAGO policies on your own. When traveling to the EU, the price tag is something like this: Lithuania: 15 days – €21, a month – €36, three months – €108. Poland: 30 days – €37, three months – €97. Latvia: from €50. On the positive side, such policies operate throughout the European Union. To travel to Georgia, you will also have to buy a policy. The issue price for a passenger car is from 30 to 295 lari (1000-9500), depending on the duration of the trip. Moreover, the minimum period is 15 days, so you won’t be able to save money during a transit trip to Turkey or Armenia. And, of course, national insurance policies will also be needed in destination countries. So now you have to travel with a pile of papers. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Igor Smirnov, General Director of Creditter MCC, especially for #Nebrekhni, on the reasons for the growth in early repayments of loans: In May, Russian banks issued 662.5 billion rubles of cash loans. This is a record monthly volume of loans issued since December 2013. Such data was published by Frank RG. True, the average credit check in May decreased by 6.4% compared to April (200.9 thousand rubles against 214.6 thousand rubles). Citizens have not completely abandoned the savings model of behavior and, most likely, make purchases that are really necessary. In any case, this is a clear signal of a recovery in consumer activity. People adapted to the “new economic normality”, some began to grow incomes, others returned to purchases and plans that they had been putting off for a long time. A possible increase in the key rate, which means an increase in loans, is another reason for citizens not to save, but to make the necessary purchases now. The growth in loans is mainly provided by solvent borrowers. And this is another important new trend. Banks and MFIs have tightened scoring and few people plan to significantly weaken it. In addition, since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank has limited the issuance of high-risk loans. @nebrexnya
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​Results and forecasts of the Russian stock market #Investfactor Moscow Exchange Index seriously thought about where to go next. All Monday it fluctuated around 2800 pts with a minimum amplitude. At the end of the week, LUKOIL’s dividends, which are now coming to investors, will no longer be reinvested in the market. After that, a correction should happen. On the other hand, it is so obvious that it may not happen – market makers will take out short positions, which will be accumulated by thousands this week. Corporate events: #TRMK Pipe Metallurgical Company posted +30% for the week. Moreover, on growing volumes. It is important that the paper grows on rumors and unconfirmed data about a sudden board of directors and insane dividends. The fix on the facts will be wild. It will be even more fun if dividends are not announced or the SD is not collected. #MGNT did a great job at the end of last week. In the next few months, it may go to 6500. But while the momentary growth has exhausted itself, the paper needs to cool down. However, waiting for the DM to be collected and recommend dividends will not let the stock fall much. #CHMF and #MAGN Metallurgists shot up. Severstal grew by 8.5% on the day, MMK – by 6%. Because Severstal hinted at the return of dividends. The hint was enough. #FLOT Sovcomflot shareholders approve dividends for 2022. 4.29 RUB per share, 5% yield. Modestly, more was expected of him. And the expectations remain. But while the shares have not reacted to the news in any way, the amplitude of fluctuations per day is about 1%. What to look out for this week? ????GOSA MTS, Mosenergo, Abrau-Dyurso and MKB. ????Closing the registers of Rosseti Center, Rosseti Center and Volga Region, Rosseti Urals for 2022 @nebrexnya
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#MorningNebrekhnya Developer Aircraft buys MIC Group for 40 billion rubles. The deal will include 50 companies of the group, all 11 under construction and promising projects. In the active construction at the MIC – 629,856 sq. m of housing. At the same time, the MIC is comparable to Samolet in terms of size: the group has commissioned about 5 million square meters in its history. m of housing, while Aircraft – 3 million square meters. The land bank of Samolet (already huge) will increase by 2 million sq. m from the current 45.9 million. If the FAS does not mind, the deal will become the largest in Russian development, and Maxim Vorobyov’s Aircraft will turn into a grandiose monster with a wide administrative resource. @nebrexnya
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#Vectors of the Day The market background is negative for the second day in a row. Asia is in the red, the US is moderately declining, the EU is at zero levels. Commodity market in the red zone. Events that will affect the markets: ????Stoltenberg: NATO is against freezing the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and peace on Russian terms. At the same time, according to him, NATO’s arsenals are devastated. ????Great Britain passed a law according to which sanctions against the Russian Federation will remain in effect until the country pays compensation to Ukraine. In addition, sanctioned persons can now legally donate frozen money to Ukraine. Looks like blackmail of Russian oligarchs. ????Blinken: The US does not support Taiwanese independence and does not intend to come into conflict with China. A sharp thaw in relations and a change in rhetoric. Worth watching. ????The Swiss Central Bank will raise the rate by 0.25% at its meeting on June 22. ????In China, the first since 2015 placement of shares of the developer has been approved. And this is against the backdrop of a very deep crisis in the industry. ????Whoosh localized the production of components for electric scooters in Russia. ????The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation went for long money and approved a new issue of OFZ (26243) with maturity in May 2038 in the amount of up to 750 billion rubles. ????Central Bank: Annual inflation in May began to grow in most regions. ????VTB will merge its broker with the Otkritie broker. ????The project for the restoration of the Mir mine (Alrosa) is estimated at 120 billion rubles. ??????Shareholders of Rosseti North Caucasus recommended not to pay dividends for 2022. And Sovcomflot gave 4.29 rubles. per share is low. ????Binance exits the UK market. Today the corporate calendar is empty. @nebrexnya
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It smelled like billions. Such a measure will make it possible to consider any objects in the combat zone and in its vicinity destroyed in general. And if the commission is meticulous enough and actually goes to draw up an act, and is not satisfied with photographs, then the activity of saboteurs may sharply increase near the desired object. One Molotov cocktail and the problem is solved. Another facet is that you can sell whole and functional buildings for the price of ruins. Judging by the dynamics, a stratum of people will soon appear in Russia who will get rich no worse than the privatizing oligarchs from the 90s. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Head of the analytical department of AMarket Artem Deev, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the plans of the Central Bank to put into circulation banknotes of a new sample with a face value of 1000 and 5000 rubles: This does not threaten anything. The Bank of Russia is working to improve the quality and security of Russian banknotes. Well, over the durability of banknotes, of course. The most commonly used banknote, 100 rubles, was the first to be modernized. It entered circulation a year ago, at the end of June 2022. In addition to a different design, it contains a reinforced protective complex, similar to that developed for 200 rubles. Now it’s the turn of the rest of the banknotes. The regulator introduced the updated 1000 and 5000 rubles. Gradually they will be put into circulation. In 2024, the queue will reach 500 rubles, and up to fifty dollars in 2025. The only difficulty I see so far is hardware. The fact is that the share of Russian counting and sorting machines does not exceed 20%, most of the devices are imported. That is, repair and support will be difficult. However, this is not a unique situation. And the Central Bank somehow managed to test on most of the KSM and ATM models. So I think it’s fixable. @nebrexnya
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#NebrekhnyaRecognized the Cherry-chocolate smoke of the Fatherland Writer Dmitry Glukhovsky’s brother Pavel earned hundreds of millions on hookahs in 2022, #Nebrekhnya found out. His hookah tobacco factory “TD Premium Tabacco” reflected in its report revenue of 4.7 billion rubles and 798 million rubles of net profit. Hookah lovers are familiar with tobacco brands Darkside, Daily Hookah, Starline. They are united by the owner – these brands belong to the Russian factory “Trading House Premium Tabacco”. Slightly less than half of this company, 47.7%, is owned by Pavel Glukhovsky, brother of the famous writer-foreign agent, author of the novel “Metro 2033” Dmitry Glukhovsky. He has the largest share. Another 33.3% belongs to CEO Sergei Mitin, and 19% to Alexander Podstavochkin. “Premium Tobacco” has absolutely identical ownership structure, the name of which differs by a couple of letters. By the way, this organization also makes good money – 1.7 billion rubles in revenue and 454.6 million rubles in net profit. In 2022, the factory paid 500 million rubles in dividends. This means that the writer’s brother received a little less than 250 million rubles of personal income from hookah tobacco in Russia. At the same time, Pavel Glukhovsky himself, like his brother Dmitry, is not in Russia. In any case, the court could not interrogate the businessman Pavel in the framework of the criminal case against the writer Dmitry. @nebrexnya
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​#Day of the Day MTS did not see Americans behind Asian faces ABS (Asia Broadcast Satellite) stopped the broadcasting of Russian channels via its satellite, the capacity of which is leased by MTS. Because of this, the broadcasting of the VGTRK group (including Rossiya 1, Rossiya 24 and Kultura), NTV and Channel One disappeared from subscribers of the Russian operator in 54 regions of Russia. In general, only the first and second multiplexes. At the end of 2022, this was considered unlikely, because the satellite is Asian. And the fraternal peoples will not betray us. #Non-nonsense dug a little into the data of the company and found out that there is only a name from Asia there. ABS has five satellites that cover almost the entire planet. It is registered offshore in Bermuda. The key investor at first was the American Citigroup, or rather its international venture division. The company acquired its first satellite from the American Lockheed Martin Space Communications Ventures. The satellite was renamed ABS (Asia Broadcast Satellite), and was previously called LMI-1 – Lockheed Martin Interputnik. If anyone has forgotten, Lockheed Martin is an American defense concern that, among other things, supplies Ukraine with HIMARS installations. So MTS leased satellite power from a company that is up to its neck in the American defense industry. Strictly speaking, it appeared thanks to the US military-industrial complex. There is only one mystery here – why was the broadcast interrupted only now, and not a year ago? But MTS should have bought glasses, otherwise cellular communications will fall at such a pace in Russia. @nebrexnya
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China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Qatar National Oil and Gas Company (QatarEnergy) have signed the second long-term contract for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China. China will buy 4 million tons of LNG annually for 27 years, Reuters reported. In November 2022, QatarEnergy signed an LNG supply agreement with the Chinese company Sinopec. The document, signed for a period of 27 years, became the longest LNG supply agreement in history. In April 2023, Sinopec also received a 5% stake in the Qatar LNG Line 1 construction project. So Chita and other cities and villages, which counted on gasification on the occasion of the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 project, gas does not shine.
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Alfa took the main award of the technology award FinTech Awards Russia for the best digital bank of the year. And just in case, I grabbed two more – for the convenience and functionality of a mobile bank in the browser and FinTech Visionary of the Year, which went personally to Vladimir Kitlyar, head of the Alfa-Online directorate. It’s not for nothing that the bank’s IT staff sweated over Face ID, QR payment, a phone number scanner, and, in general, over the interface.
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#There is an Opinion Senior Managing Partner of PG Partners law firm Polina Gusyatnikova specifically for #Nonbrekhni about using maternity capital as a bank deposit: A rather dubious initiative. Maternal capital is already indexed annually to the level of inflation. In the same way, the received and unused maternity capital and account balances are indexed in case of partial withdrawal. That is, matkapital funds are already protected from inflation. What is the reason for such a proposal in this case is not clear. Another question is if the state refuses to annually index the funds of the mother’s capital. Then the offer will be valid. This initiative will only work in two cases. Firstly, if the state refuses to index the capital. Secondly, if programs with increased interest rates are proposed, which will significantly exceed inflation. Our population does not trust banks in principle, especially in the light of recent events and the unclear economic situation in the country. Therefore, I don’t think that someone will go to withdraw money from an account with the PFR in order to transfer it to a bank deposit. In addition, funds in private bank accounts will be more difficult to control. Therefore, the question is whether the state will take such a step. It is also not profitable for banks to make offers with higher interest rates. They will take such a step only if they are subsidized by the state. In principle, it turns out “also on the same”, only an extra link appears in the chain, which, moreover, is more difficult to control. @nebrexnya
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Defenders of the Fatherland will only protect their own budget. The Fund for Assistance to Combatants, created on the personal instructions of President Putin, received its first money. The government of the Russian Federation sent 1.3 billion rubles from the reserve fund. “Defenders of the Fatherland” enthusiastically got down to business and began to plan a vigorous activity. 25 million rubles were allocated for psychological assistance to veterans, another 15 million for some “socially important projects”. Everything would be fine, but apart from this, the fund is not going to do anything other than the essence of its work. With big reservations, 44.3 million can be included in the working expenses, which will go to work in social networks. But that’s all. A little less than 85 million out of 1.3 billion rubles will go to the cause. Where will the rest go? Salaries of employees, maintenance of offices and business trips. In other words, on your own content. And the fund expects to receive many, many more tranches – from the government, state corporations and voluntary-compulsory sponsors. One thing is clear – the organizers of the fund are not afraid of Putin, since they staged such a brazen dismantling of government money on a project created on the personal instructions of the president. @nebrexnya