Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 04/06/2023

​#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Asia and Europe are at zero, the US is in a slight minus. The commodity market is predominantly in the red zone, even oil went down. Events that will affect the markets: Alfa-Bank ended the year with a loss for the first time since 2009. Alfa’s losses in 2022 amounted to 117.1 billion rubles under RAS. In 2009, the loss was only 3.4 billion. Are they already shooting there? ????The EU will discuss the 11th package of sanctions against Russia after 9 April. ????Saudi Arabia raises oil prices in Asia in May. This is very good news for Russia – either the price of Urals will increase, or the volume of sales, or both. ????Annual inflation in Russia from March 28 to April 3 slowed to 3.29%. ????The European Commission has approved a deal to buy Italian Marcegaglia, a Latvian subsidiary of Severstal. ????RusHydro splits into two separate companies. This decision was taken by the FAS. Today: ???? Ozon to release 4Q and FY 2022 financial results ???? The Positive Group will present the final consolidated results and information on dividends for 2022, as well as forecasts for 2023 ???? Meetings of the Boards of Directors of TNS energo Voronezh and TNS energo Mari El. The agenda includes the issue of dividends for 2022.
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It seems that the Ministry of Defense decided to copy the most successful practices of PMC Wagner. But not fully. #Nonbrehnya calculated how much it costs to maintain one prisoner in prison. The point of “profitability” – 3 years in prison. If a person is left to sit longer, it is cheaper to take him to the front than to keep him in prison. We are talking about conscription for those whose criminal term does not exceed five years. That is, a significant part of the “target audience” is cut off by the wording itself. And for the prisoners themselves, the conditions, apparently, are worse than under Wagner. Prigozhin could exchange 15 years in prison for six months in a trench. And the Ministry of Defense – up to five years for an indefinite period. And Prigozhin, apparently, has run out of prisoners. And the Ministry of Defense may not even begin. Unless, of course, their call is voluntary. @nebrexnya
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​The CEO of the Rocket Work platform, Anastasia Uskova, especially for #Nebrekhni, talks about the growth of salaries against the backdrop of a falling economy and lagging labor productivity: The key reason for this discrepancy (the dynamics of growth in labor productivity and remuneration) lies in demographic reasons. Russia, like many developed and developing countries, is now facing the problem of aging workers, a shortage of young and most economically active specialists. In our country, according to HSE experts, the share of working people under the age of 40 will decrease annually and by 2030 will decrease from 42 to 37.4%. Every year, for these reasons alone, the country may lose 1% of GDP due to a decrease in labor productivity. Add to this the factor of immigration, coupled with general economic turbulence, and the decline in labor productivity will no longer raise so many questions. And with salaries, everything is simple – a market with low competition forces employers to raise salaries to attract new and retain old staff. Not working at all is not an option, and even now, in a seemingly difficult time, the market is still quite optimistic about hiring – companies have moved away from the shock of last year, adapted processes, outlined growth points and adjusted strategies. And circumstances that are insurmountable only at first glance, such as the lack of a sufficient number of workers, are circumvented by hiring personnel, project planning and labor automation. @nebrexnya
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#NebrekhnyaFind out The Administrative Office of the President of the Russian Federation sued Legacy Development for 17.4 million rubles, #Nebrekhnya found out. In addition to the 122.7 million rubles already recovered. And it looks like this is not the end. Legacy Development is a company that is engaged in the reconstruction of the Izvestia building on Malaya Dmitrovka. The essence of the claims is simple – the organization does not fulfill the contract for the “comprehensive reconstruction” of the building. So in the language of developers is called the demolition of a historic building and the construction of an office and hotel complex in its place. This is the second stage of work, the contractor has not started it. The dispute is quite old, it has been going on since 2006. Then they planned to reconstruct and restore the building in five years (however, now we know from court documents that there is no talk of restoration). The planned volume of investments is 15.8 billion rubles. Legacy Development itself has already filed a lawsuit demanding that the Presidential Administration and Izvestiya sign an act for the implementation of the first stage of the investment contract and determine the shares in real estate. And then I planned to start the second one. There are more than a dozen judicial acts between the developer, UDP and Izvestia in the file of arbitration. The total volume of state claims against the developer is 8 billion rubles. Legacy itself is a murky company created specifically for the deal. She was associated with Tashir, although Tashir himself denies the connection. Traces led to Kirill Shubsky (Consent-Alliance) and Rostec, but were lost offshore. The good news is that while the courts are going on, the historic building stands in its place, on Pushkinskaya Square and is not undergoing “comprehensive reconstruction with elements of restoration”. @nebrexnya
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Mishustin notably drank in Altai for 40 million rubles This was told to the Dossier Center by FSO captain Gleb Karakulov, who fled from Russia, who ensured the safety of the event. In August 2022, one of the most expensive resorts in Russia, Altay Village Teletskoe, was completely bought out for the rest of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. The price of renting one cottage for a day in this heavenly place is from 126 to 332 thousand rubles. This means that Mishustin spent 20 million rubles on housing alone. Paid additional services were attached to the accommodation: SPA treatments, meals (including the meat of Red Book animals), performances by buffoon artists and other entertainment. True, there is one “but”, according to Karaulov, the money for the revelry was taken from the budget or was it such an intangible bribe from the owner of the resort, billionaire Kerimov.
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#DnoDay “Uralsib Broker” decided to change its face and rob customers on the sly. The organization is now called “Your Broker”. And he is going to forcibly convert the currency of “unfriendly” countries. The regulations made an important reservation: it will be converted “at its own discretion and at its own rate.” That is, it can differ from the exchange one in any way, and the broker will not choose a convenient time. Many who invested in the currency may find themselves in the red, although now, apparently, there has been a trend towards a noticeable increase in the dollar and the euro. By the way, the withdrawal and transfer of USD and EUR from Uralsib has been stopped for a long time. The commissions for transactions with currency have also been changed: ????2% for a turnover of up to 20 million rubles; ????0.25% for turnover from 20 to 200 million rubles; ????0.1% for turnover over 200 million rubles. This actually makes it impossible for physicists to operate in the foreign exchange market, because 2% is a lot. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Prospects for the ruble. Part 1. The dollar on the exchange today is more expensive than 80. Historical patterns show that we will no longer see the US currency at 50. Nevertheless, the price of oil is rising, and the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, assures that this will strengthen the ruble. #Nonbrekhnya interviewed experts on the Russian currency: Stock market expert at BCS Mir Investments Mikhail Zeltser: Factors of a high budget deficit against the backdrop of a decrease in export flows and a jump in government spending are active. Against the backdrop of reduced trading volumes, the exit of unfriendly non-residents from the market creates additional pressure on the exchange rate. Therefore, the strengthening of the ruble is possible, but as soon as the demand for the currency is satisfied. The USD/RUB rate is beating under the bar of 80 per US dollar. There is a possibility of a puncture of the round mark, but it is unlikely that currencies will be able to gain a foothold at levels that are already discordant with the country’s macro parameters for a long time. The movement of currency pairs down can be quite fast, you just have to wait for a trigger, for example, a message about the completion of the transaction and settlements with Shell. Financial expert, author of the Economism Telegram channel Aleksey Krichevsky: It cannot be said that today’s severe devaluation is actually justified by something from a macroeconomic point of view. Therefore, you need to look for the problem inside. And it is called “currency swaps”. Banks are forced to borrow from the Central Bank the maximum amount of currency both to pay for imports and for cross-border transfers. At the same time, Siluanov’s words that more foreign currency will begin to flow into Russia due to rising oil prices are not entirely correct – the rupee is not very interesting for banks and individuals, China may well transfer part of the cash in rubles. So far, financial markets are recovering from the banking crisis, which, in their opinion, they quickly leveled. This fact, together with the reduction in OPEC + production, provoked a sharp increase in oil from $70 to $85 per barrel of Brent in just less than three weeks. If the price settles at this level or goes higher, the ruble will definitely strengthen. If it goes lower, it will most likely remain at current levels. Why? Because technically all the factors for the strengthening of the Russian currency are now observed. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Prospects for the ruble. Part 2. (Read part 1) The dollar on the stock exchange today is more expensive than 80. Historical patterns show that we will no longer see the US currency at 50. Nevertheless, the price of oil is rising, and the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, assures that this will strengthen the ruble. #Nonbrehnya asked experts about the Russian currency: Finam Analyst Alexander Potavin: In order for the ruble to show a significant strengthening, it is necessary for Brent oil to steadily gain a foothold above the $85/bbl mark. at least for a couple of months. The current increase in the cost of Brent, at best, will lead to an increase in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings by Russian exporters only by the end of April. In a situation of a strong fall in state revenues, the weaker ruble exchange rate is beneficial to the government to cover the budget deficit. Revenues from the oil and gas industry to the Russian budget in March 2023 were 75.5% lower than in March 2022. Therefore, the current devaluation of the Russian currency currently allows partly to close the hole in the budget of the Russian Federation. We expect that the period of adaptation of the Russian economy and commodity exporters to external sanctions will take several more months, after which the situation with foreign exchange inflows may improve, and the ruble exchange rate will stabilize in the spring and slightly strengthen in the summer. Until the end of the year, quotes will be in the region of 75-85 rubles. per dollar. Artem Deev, Head of the Analytical Department at AMarkets: Unlike in the spring of 2022, now the ruble is falling not due to geopolitical news and risks, but due to internal problems. This is an increase in the budget deficit, a decrease in export flows with the restoration of imports. More and more currency is required, and meanwhile banks are faced with a shortage of dollars and euros. And the budget needs to be replenished, and for this the controlled devaluation of the ruble is a working tool. It is to be expected that in the coming weeks and months the upward trend in the value of the dollar will continue: it may reach the level of 82-83 rubles, the euro – 90 rubles. But such a sharp weakening of the national currency, as a year ago, the Central Bank will not allow. @nebrexnya
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Lisitsyn likes Kubyshko Corruption fuss continues in the Ministry of Emergency Situations. After the resignation of the deputy head of the department, Nikolai Grechushkin, the current acting head of the logistics and technical support department, Mikhail Lisitsyn, can take his place. The latter is a relative of the famous composer Vladimir Kubyshko, who, for some unknown reason, holds the post of deputy head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. And not just occupies, but for more than 10 years he has been the chief police personnel officer, earning a lot of money on the trade in positions. Actually, in the Ministry of Emergencies, Lisitsyn owes his entire career to Kubyshko, who got so into the taste of power and influence that he began to place his people in other ministries. At the same time, Lisitsyn is so accustomed to the patronage of his uncle, a policeman, that he does not hesitate to pester female colleagues at work, inciting them to sexual intimacy. The leadership of the Ministry of Emergency Situations is well aware of this, however, Kubyshko’s position does not allow them to talk much about it – otherwise they themselves will be sent to a pre-trial detention center for “harassment”. At one time, Kubyshko managed to disgrace himself, stealing money intended for the children of dead employees. But as if by magic, the resignation and even the banal verification of these facts bypassed him. After that, he also conducted a recertification of police officers, as a result of which a real boom in consumer loans was observed among the latter – it turned out to be very difficult to remain in positions in a different way. And Kubyshko is really a famous composer, author of songs and poems. Subject, as expected – the work of the police. True, he is known only in the circles of the Ministry of Internal Affairs itself, whose employees are almost forced to listen to the work of an influential corrupt official with sticks. #VladimirKolokoltsev #AndreyGurovich #VladimirKubyshko #NikolayGrechushkin #MaximLisitsyn
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Fees from Russian insurers increased by 22% to RUB 29.5 billion. Where, where, but here import substitution worked completely. Moreover, two factors worked for insurers: the decrease in competition with the departure of Western companies and the supply chains themselves, which have become longer and more complex. The top three leaders of the segment in terms of collections included Independent Insurance Group (RUB 4.9 billion), Ingosstrakh (RUB 4.7 billion) and Renaissance Insurance (RUB 3.8 billion). This news has a double bottom. Problems with spare parts, consumables and accessories for literally everything from bicycles to airplanes reduce the overall level of safety. For example, on March 8, an engine failed on Aeroflot’s Airbus A320 during takeoff. The pilots aborted the takeoff and tried to slow down, but the failed engine remained in takeoff mode and did not respond to their actions. He turned the plane so that the pilots had to just turn it off and try to slow it down. It worked out, the plane is intact, people are alive. But the problem is that the Federal Air Transport Agency could not explain this incident. Something has failed in the electronic engine control unit and / or fuel metering device. Without the technical support of Airbus and CFM International, the Federal Air Transport Agency could not explain this incident, so the report actually wrote “I know that your car has broken down”. Insurance risks will be realized more and more often. This means that insurers will have to pay more, and their growing revenue will come to them sideways. And the most terrible threat is the Russian shadow fleet of tankers. It actually consists of decommissioned ships, which are generally not clear who and how insures. And the collapse of a tanker is a grandiose man-made disaster, the elimination of which will require astronomical sums. After the first serious accident, either Russian insurers will have to fork out to the affected countries, or they will close the shop. Possibly from an aircraft carrier. @nebrexnya
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The economic crisis that began in February set the Russian economy back four years. But the Russians still feel little of the consequences of this crisis, and business demonstrates high adaptability. How long will the safety margin last? How will the situation in the economy develop further, what shocks to prepare for, how to save and manage capital in the face of sanctions and increasing isolation? All these questions are answered daily by the MMI channel – the most authoritative and objective economic channel in Telegram, founded 5 years ago by Evgeny Suvorov and Kirill Tremasov (now the director of the monetary policy department of the Bank of Russia). We also have an interesting chat where we answer your questions and where heated discussions take place on the most topical issues. SUBSCRIBE TO MMI – Macro-Markets-Inside!!!