Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 04/01/2023

And it’s beautiful. Everyone passed everything, everyone has excellent declarations. There are numbers and letters. The rest is none of your business. And this is against the backdrop of a doubling of the classified part of the budget: 6.5 trillion, or a quarter of the total. A new level of transparency. It seems that the Kremlin decided to firmly lock the doors, hang a sign on them “do not interfere with leading” and saw through the remains of the country behind these doors, sometimes throwing some benefits into the crowd so that there are fewer questions. @nebrexnya
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Not a pissing boy, but Havana cigars. To whom is Russia turning to face? The Russian turn from West to East has ended. More precisely, not to the East, but to the Global South. The new Russian footholds are Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. In general, everything except Europe and North America. The list of priorities is in the new “Foreign Policy Concept” signed by the President. What else is this concept about? ???????????????? Russia will create the “Great Eurasian Partnership”. True, its parameters are not entirely clear. Most likely, this is a partnership of such organizations as the CIS, the EAEU, the SCO and ASEAN. ???????????????? Russia in the Arctic will rely on friendly non-Arctic countries. A direct allusion to China – an observer in the Arctic Council, chaired by Russia. She, together with China, is going to develop the Northern Sea Route. ???????????????? Russia will pay special attention to the development of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The concept specifically mentions this. This can be considered an indirect response to the growth of anti-Russian sentiment in Georgia. ???????????????? Russia will not abandon the CSTO – as well as all other defense alliances. It is also a kind of response from Armenia, which refused not only to conduct CSTO exercises, but also to appoint its representative to the organization. ???????????????? Russia will create a new “mechanism of interaction” with the countries of Central Asia. There are no specifics yet. It is only clear that the most difficult thing will be with Kazakhstan, which is taking an increasingly sovereign position. And this is often not in Russia’s interests. ???????????? For Russia in the Islamic world, only 5 countries are named as the main partners: Iran, Syria, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The appearance of the Saudis in this list, who were not even close friends with the USSR, is unusual. But it is strange that there is no Pakistan, with which Russia is now signing a bilateral trade agreement. ???????????????? Latin America for Russia is primarily 4 countries: Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. Unexpectedly, Paraguay, headed by the Americanophob and Russophile Mario Abdo Benitez, is not on the list. The main thing in the concept is not politics, but economics. They promise foreign investment and an almost complete rejection of the dollar in foreign trade. No exact dates.
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Presidential elections in Turkey – a nightmare for the West Turkey’s multi-vector policy is bearing fruit: a possible loss in the upcoming elections by Recep Erdogan is a problem not only for Russia. The EU, NATO and the US could get even more out of this. Not every leader of the nation is so successful in trading sanctions with Russia, and Russian gas with Europe, supplying the Ukrainian army with Bayraktars and supporting Azerbaijan with weapons in the conflict with Armenia. In addition, Erdogan ensures the implementation of the grain deal, continuing to iron Syria, and then calmly flies to Lviv for negotiations with Zelensky and looks into his eyes without blinking. Actually, Turkey (a NATO member) is conducting an operation in Syria against the Kurds supported by the United States (a NATO member). Erdogan has a grudge against the States after the State Department sided with his domestic political enemies during an unsuccessful coup. So first, Erdogan blocked the Bosporus for the passage of NATO (consider American) warships to the Black Sea (immediately after the start of military clashes between Russia and Ukraine), and then blocked Finland and Sweden from joining NATO – he messed up as best he could. But the United States did not remain in debt either: Washington decided to lift the embargo on arms supplies to Cyprus. For the first time since 1987, the republic will be able to purchase new weapons from the United States and its allies. How this will affect the de-escalation of the conflict between Northern (Turkish) and Southern Cyprus is not difficult to guess. There have long been calls within the country to withdraw from NATO. And not only the 50,000-strong pro-Russian non-parliamentary Vatan (Motherland) party speaks about this, but also nationalists of all stripes. It’s just that it’s great to untie the hands in the “Greek” and “Cypriot” issue. Turkey has the most powerful fleet in the region (yes, stronger than our Black Sea one!) – it will be possible to go and “return what is ours”, since they still do not take it to the European Union (the status of an “associated member” since 2005 does not give anything). They talk about it a lot. For example, in 2022, the ultra-nationalist youth group Gray Wolves presented Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (linked to Erdogan), with a map that included several large inhabited Greek islands in the Aegean Sea as part of the Republic of Turkey. The activists explained that the Turkish flag flew over this land for “hundreds of years” before the islands “were usurped by Greece.” And for this they had nothing but a hatred from Athens on Twitter. But the ambitions of the Turks go far beyond the borders of the Aegean. A couple of years ago, a “map of the Turkic world” was shown on the national TV channel, where among the regions of interest to Turkey were Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Crimea, Kuban, Siberia and something else. In fact, the Turks are more imperial than Russians and crave expansion in all directions. So what keeps them from conflicts with almost all their neighbors? How do they manage to maneuver in the international arena, clearly negotiating their profit? Imagine a large double hamburger held together with a toothpick so that the layers don’t come apart and the dish doesn’t fall apart prematurely. Here in the Republic of Turkey there is such a toothpick – Erdogan – a man who manages to stretch himself in a twine in time and keep in one bridle the very diverse Wishlist of his people. No other leader can do that. Whoever he is. @nebrexnya
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The digital ruble is positioned as a panacea for international payments, allowing you to bypass sanctions. The idea of ​​a new currency became very popular and, as a result, overgrown with myths. What is the digital ruble in reality and how will it work? @nebrexnya
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TOP-5 stocks that have risen in March 5th place: Tatneft +13.83% The oil industry is generally doing well. After Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, the market for some reason decided that China would buy all Russian oil at good prices, returning the excess profits to the oil and gas sector. The opinion is erroneous, but the market pushes up. Specifically, Tatneft is growing on expectations of dividends, in addition to acquiring a valuable asset – the production base of the tire company Nokian Tires, which left Russia. 4th place: Transneft +15.82% Also growing on the expectation of dividends and on the visit of Comrade Xi. And if it is not clear what will happen to the rest of the oil companies in terms of the profitability of selling oil to China, then Transneft will definitely get its own for pumping. 3rd place: Globaltrans +25.49% The company is unable to pay dividends for technical reasons, but this does not prevent it from growing like it is in itself. Investors are waiting for her to be able to change her residence permit and transfer payments, and significant ones at that. 2nd and 1st place: Sberbank +27.55% ordinary, +28.68% preferred Sberbank has become a locomotive for the entire index. It is back to early 2022 prices, which is a great result in itself. And now it can benefit greatly from the withdrawal of Raiffeisenbank from Russia – negotiations are underway to exchange the group’s assets here for Sberbank’s assets frozen abroad. So far, unofficially, but if such an exchange takes place, Sberbank may accelerate its growth. Record dividends of 25 rubles per share add to the positive. @nebrexnya
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​#There is an Opinion ​Economist, lecturer at the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Ginko, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the strengthening of the yuan in Russia: The Chinese yuan has gained considerable popularity in the foreign exchange market in Russia. In terms of trading volume on the foreign exchange market, its specific share surpassed similar parameters for the US dollar and the euro. At the end of last year, the volume of transactions in the USD/RUB pair fell 26.3%, while in the RMB/RUB pair it jumped by 2963.8%! By the beginning of this year, transactions with the yuan on the Russian currency exchange market accounted for a share of 37%, and on the over-the-counter market – 21%. A higher exchange share indicates that the yuan has become increasingly used in Russia’s foreign trade with other countries. In addition, in 2022, Russian companies issued bonds in yuan worth about 7 billion in dollar terms. And on March 28 of this year, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, during the Strategic Session on Ensuring Financial Sovereignty, said that “the issue of starting the issuance of federal loan bonds and other instruments in friendly currencies” is being discussed, which includes the Chinese yuan. The yuan comes to replace where it is no longer possible to operate with the US dollar. If we talk about the reserve assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the gold reserves in bullion and cash foreign currency are stored on the territory of the Russian Federation, and the assets in yuan are stored in China, mainly in the form of investments in Chinese government securities. In general, the demand for Chinese government bonds in the global financial market has been declining over the past 15 months, which is due, among other things, to a record increase in rates on US Treasury bonds. Also, global investors take into account the degree of financial risk and the dynamics of exchange rates in the US dollar / yuan pair: the US dollar began 2022 at a level of 6.3691 yuan, and ended at 6.8972 yuan. To date, the Chinese yuan has been able to only partially offset the losses of 2022, having strengthened to 6.8695 yuan per unit of the US currency. @nebrexnya
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Will the Sevastopol seaport be sawn up? Industrial facilities and more than 20 hectares of the territory of the Sevastopol seaport are given to a company led by Andrey Filchakov, the former vice-mayor of Khimki for land issues during the governorship of the head of the “Combat Brotherhood” Boris Gromov, whom the media has repeatedly accused of financial and land fraud. It so happened that Filchakov is a classmate of State Duma deputy Dmitry Sablin, who is married to Gromov’s niece. After Gromov’s resignation, Filchakov was even prosecuted for abuse of office. #Nebrekhnya figured out how the new structure of the owners of Sevmorport will be arranged. @nebrexnya
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“Authoritative” St. Petersburg Georgian Mikhail Mirilashvili urgently throws off development assets. It is reported that the transfer of ownership to close partners was accompanied by a large discount. The piquancy of the situation is that in the projects sold (several shopping centers and a construction project operator operating in Russia and the UAE) the money of Joseph “I’m not a cook” Prigogine was invested, he and Mirilashvili have been cooperating for a very long time. Producer Prigozhin was afraid of responsibility for the words spoken on the phone and wants to flee to Dubai? In vain, “Chechen security” has been working there for a long time like at home. Or did the gangster Mikhail, who at one time kept half the country in fear, decide to get rid of the toxic talker Joseph? Information began to seep into the media. RBC announces the replacement of shareholders in the Petro Mir company, which manages the PIK shopping mall on Sennaya Square (26,000 m² of leased area), the Admiral shopping mall on Malaya Morskaya Street (6.6 thousand m²), and the Ozerki shopping mall (11 .3 thousand m²). But these are not all the assets that Mirilashvili urgently got rid of. We will write more about this later.
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​#Results of the Week The main events of the outgoing week according to #Nebrekhni: Ends in water. Arkady Rotenberg liquidates the company that built the Crimean bridge, found out #Nebrekhnya. Manturov’s housing problem. Between the battles for the import substitution of the Superjet, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov does not have time to manage a huge amount of real estate. So he passes it on to his children. And he lives in terrible conditions, in an apartment with mold. Both ours and yours. Medvedchuk received several oil companies in Russia, and previously had a joint business with Kolomoisky. For a second, it was Kolomoisky who financed the Azov battalion. The Moscow metro is stuck in the “Tsentrlift”. The Metropolitan tried to sue 239 million rubles from elevator operators, referring to poor-quality work performed under the contract, #Nebrekhnya found out. Unsuccessfully. Pressed. Raiffeisenbank nevertheless announced its withdrawal from Russia. For the bank, this will be a disaster. Not only did he receive half of the revenue of the entire global group in Russia, but the procedures for exiting the market are now, to put it mildly, unpleasant. It will be necessary to sell assets here for next to nothing. Nothing good for customers either – the window to Europe is closed. Lada has arrived. AvtoVAZ again has problems with components. Some suppliers have notified the company that they will not be able to supply parts. Available stocks will last until the second half of May. The market has decided. Russian software developers have raised prices by 30-50% over the past year. Which is quite natural in the face of growing demand and declining competition due to the departure of Western companies. @nebrexnya