Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 03/31/2023

​#Vectors of the Day The market background is moderately positive. Indices and futures of the US, Asia and the EU add a fraction of a percent, Hong Kong is growing by 1%. Commodity market moves in different directions, palladium adds 1%, nickel loses 2.5%. News that will affect the markets: The Turkish parliament has ratified Finland’s application for NATO membership. All stages of approval from all countries have been completed, NATO is standing near St. Petersburg. The EU and G7 countries have not yet agreed to change the price ceiling for Russian oil. US jurors voted to indict Trump. This is a historic precedent for the US. Hungary is included in the list of unfriendly countries due to sanctions. Either Russia has lost its last ally in Europe, or it’s just dust in the eyes so that the rest of Europe will lessen poked Orban with friendship with Putin. The International Court of Justice ruled that the United States’ freeze on part of Iran’s assets was illegal and ordered compensation to be paid. The Central Bank announced the threat of bankruptcy of four Russian banks. But he didn’t say which ones. Caught up with suspense from the heart. Crimean RNKB became a full-fledged subsidiary of VTB. Finland approved the expansion of Norilsk Nickel’s production in the country. Interactive Brokers is reducing business in Russia – the broker began to refuse to Russian clients in opening margin positions. Segezha published a report. Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year (yoy) to RUB 106.8 billion, IFRS net income decreased by 60%. There is no solution for dividends. Today: ????Last day to enter the register of shareholders eligible to receive Phosagro dividends for 2022 @nebrexnya
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It is symptomatic that among business problems, the first two lines are occupied by general macroeconomic factors: a drop in demand and revenue. The phenomena directly or indirectly related to the sanctions are problems with imported equipment, difficulties with money transfers, etc. – far from the top of the list. But the mobilization of employees and the shortage of personnel were in the top 10 business problems. More damage to Russian entrepreneurs is caused not by foreign restrictions, but by completely man-made internal factors – the economic crisis and the savings model of behavior, the departure of qualified specialists and the sending of a large number of able-bodied men to the front. By the way, in this regard, the idea to recruit another 400 thousand people into the troops is utopian if voluntarily, and suicidal for the economy if in the order of mobilization. @nebrexnya
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The authorities of the United Arab Emirates “congratulated” MTS with the change of logo – the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates cancels the license of “MTS Bank”, issued on January 1. “MTS Bank” was going to be the first of all Russian banks to open its branch in Dubai, before that there were only representative offices of banks (Sberbank and others), which provide only consulting services. But already in early February, the United States hinted at sanctions risks for such cooperation. And then the hints turned into action – on the anniversary of the start of the CBO, MTS Bank was included in the sanctions lists. After that, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates decided to take back the already issued license. They want to turn the Russian banking sector into a “local puddle”, without access to foreign markets.
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​Head of Advanced Technologies Department, Positive Technologies Alexandra Murzina, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence in the field of digital security: AI can pose an increased danger in the field of cybersecurity. Such technologies not only automate the work of copywriters, translators, designers, but also hackers. How many services have been made based on OpenAI? How safe are they on their own? The question is open, and there are no statistics yet. For example, OpenAI itself recently had an incident and some of the user data was available for some time. This kind of technology lowers the barrier to entry in certain areas, and of course this has happened with cybersecurity as well. But despite the fact that ChatGPT allows you to do some tasks faster, the number of non-working ideas is still large, and certain knowledge and skills are needed to finalize them. It is impossible to simply generate a lot of malicious software for a person who does not understand this. Algorithms based on data: statistics, machine learning have been used in information security for a long time and are successfully used to solve various problems. For detecting malicious software, user behavior in the infrastructure, analyzing logs, web traffic. And the development of such technologies helps more and more security professionals do their job faster. In addition, the ethical aspects of the use of AI in cybersecurity should be considered. For example, using it to monitor and analyze user data may violate privacy rights. A scenario in which cyber warfare becomes completely the prerogative of AI is, of course, a science fiction plot, but the possibility of such a development of events should not be ruled out. It largely depends on how AI will be used and who will control its development. In summary, AI has both the potential to enhance cybersecurity and the potential threats that its development could pose. Therefore, it is important to follow the development of AI and use it wisely. @nebrexnya
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#DayDay Sometimes it’s better to chew than to talk. FBK (recognized by the Ministry of Justice as a foreign agent, an extremist and anathematized) included businessmen Mikhail Fridman, Alexei Kuzmichev and German Khan in the list of “corrupt officials and warmongers.” Earlier, Leonid Volkov proposed to remove the founders of Alfa Group from sanctions, for which even Navalny himself condemned Volkov from prison. Volkov has resigned, and now the new head of the Foundation, Maria Pevchikh, is trying to win back his decision to protect the oligarchs, but only fuels the conflict again. It no longer looked like a snake in a frying pan. Rather, it looks like Friedman himself, who rushes between attempts to get out of sanctions, keep assets in Russia, support the Armed Forces of Ukraine and save his Ukrainian property, but in the end loses everything and, it seems, forever. Like Fridman himself, FBK runs the risk of becoming a handshake for the Russian opposition, and for the Kremlin, of course, and for European politicians. Heap up such a grandiose scandal – it still needs to be managed. And Friedman with such friends does not need any enemies. @nebrexnya
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Russian game developers are trying to start a victorious expansion in the Chinese market. The progress was so confident that they have already come running for state support. The problem lies in the structure of the Chinese business itself. The Middle Kingdom consists of barriers that allow officials, intermediaries and the budget to cash in on every sneeze. In the case of computer games, it is necessary to go through the state censorship of the regulator for personal data and the protection of minors from illegal content. You can stand in the general queue, but the procedure takes 3-5 years at best. You can use the services of agents, but they will bite off up to 80% of the income. IT people did not find anything better than asking the Russian government to achieve a special order for Russian companies. The idea of ​​such negotiations is confusing in itself. Does anyone seriously expect that the Russian government will be able to weaken the state censorship of China, and even for specific Russian companies? @nebrexnya
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Artem Deev, Head of the Analytical Department at AMarkets, specifically for #Nebrekhni, on the state of the ferrous metallurgy industry and the likelihood of super profits: For the Russian sector of the ferrous metallurgy, the main problem last year was the fall in exports due to sanctions – sales to the EU countries, the USA, Japan, etc. .d. At the end of the year, exports decreased by 15.2% and amounted to $25.4 billion. But at the same time, deliveries to China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, North African countries and the domestic Russian market increased. The situation in the industry, of course, is not the simplest: the total losses of leading companies in 2022 could amount to $9 billion (Severstal, NLMK, Evraz, MMK, Mechel). But in the future, production growth will be driven by an increase in demand in the domestic market – in the construction sector, in oil and gas and other industries that now need to replace imports, which are also subject to restrictions from unfriendly states. @nebrexnya
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Honest figures of what is happening with Imports to Russia. Which items are leaving and which are staying. How sanctions are bypassed, taking into account the latest packages. How shares of participants are redistributed in segments of the economy and why. We try to make events predictable. Join us, we hope that we will be useful to you.
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Who is talking about what, and we are again talking about the military economy. With agendas through the State Services, the story remains muddy. It is not clear whether it will be possible to prosecute those who do not come to the military enlistment office at the invitation through the State Services according to the law. Still, there is no such procedure in the law yet. But let’s assume they will. The conscription plan is 147 thousand people or 38% of the men born in 2004. Catching must be the most severe in order to close such indicators. Therefore, everything is infrastructurally ready: the account on the State Services can no longer be deleted, and the penalty for non-attendance can be assigned automatically, as with car fines from cameras – I didn’t notice, it’s my own fault. Finishing the legislation for this case is work for one meeting of the State Duma. Suppose the plan is carried out, and 150,000 able-bodied men are pulled out of the economy. They will stop producing anything, but they will consume only 300 million salaries per month (the salary of a conscript is about 2,000 rubles) or 3.6 billion per year. And this is just the beginning of the conversation, because you still need to provide housing, uniforms, weapons, food. How much it costs is a big mystery, more or less adequate figures are dated 2011 and even then amounted to about 300 thousand rubles a year. Adjusted for inflation of 126%, 679,000 rubles per soldier, or 101.8 billion for all recruits, come out during this time. But behind this mechanism of state services under compulsion, preparations for a new mobilization may also be hidden. 400,000 new soldiers have to be taken somewhere. Even before the first wave of mobilization, 10-15 thousand volunteers were attracted, despite active propaganda and high salaries. Now the chances of attracting 400,000 volunteers are even less. So either mobilization or nothing. But mobilization through the State Services may cause even more panic than September 2022 and provoke a new wave of relocators. In the first wave of mobilization, 300,000 people went to the front, and another 700,000 (according to rather controversial estimates) left the country. In the second wave, will there be 400,000 mobilized and proportionally – 875,000 who left? Let’s add here the figures of February 2022. According to the FSB, about 4 million people left, according to the Ministry of Digital Development, 80% returned. This means that 20% or 800,000 did not return. A total of 700,000 mobilized, 150,000 conscripts, 1.5 million relocators – and that’s almost 2.5 million depopulation. Moreover, the youngest and able-bodied, who, instead of filling the budget with taxes, are forced to parasitize on it. The question is – in such a scenario, it will generally remain, who will support the army? @nebrexnya
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Hitters and losers of the week on the stock exchange The index slowed down its growth a little and gained 1.5% over the week. Mobilization fall began from the level of 2430 points, now the index has completely closed the gap. According to the logic of technical analysis, a correction should now begin. Moreover, there is not much good news on the political front, on the military one, either clouds or colors are gathering. TOP 3 stocks that rose this week⬇️ 3rd place: Tatneft +8.88% ???? Nokian Tires has completed the sale of its assets in Russia. And Tatneft bought them. So now tires, from which swans are made in the yards, will be imported. In general, the company is doing well, a correction by 340 is possible, and further growth. 2nd place: N+ Group +9.14%???? Watching aluminum prices. It rose sharply on the news about the ban on the export of aluminum products from Japan to Russia and on dividend expectations. 1st place: Aeroflot +11.75%???? The dividend swing has swung in the wrong direction. The Board of Directors recommended not to pay anything to shareholders at the end of 2022. In general, the growth of this paper looks irrational. In a year, the National Guard loses half of its capitalization and has been living thanks to the budget for several years now. TOP 3 stocks that fell in price this week⬇️ 3rd place: Globaltrans -0.7% ???? Continues to quietly correct after impressive gains. There are no reasons for a deep and protracted fall, but growth may be more calm than before. The company reported under IFRS this week. Net profit in 2022 increased by 1.7 times, revenue – by 1.4 times. There is a small fix on the report. 2nd place: RUSAL -0.8% ???? The majority of RUSAL shareholders voted against the submission of documents to Sual Partners on transactions with shares of RusHydro (#HYDR) and Braidy. There were no other significant events around the company during the week. 1st place: Children’s World -1.9%???? Forget about this company. Nothing good will happen to her shares. @nebrexnya