The Arctic fox is advancing from all sides: Putin is at a loss regarding Ukraine.
This data might assist fellow reporters and experts in grasping the unfolding situation. I will refrain from commentary and request no sharing. I am employing formal language to prevent misunderstandings.
Turmoil grips the Kremlin
1. Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services have broken off professional communication. Personally, I find this news highly unfavorable!!! Yet, beyond the apparent and gravest explanation for this development, there exists another possibility: disarray has seized the Kremlin;
2. Putin is unsure of how to manage the Ukraine issue. Around 1,500 skilled operatives are currently active within our borders (accounts of tens of thousands are inflated). They have been placed on high alert multiple times, only to receive subsequent cancellation notices. Putin has repeatedly neared launching a full-blown conflict with Ukraine, yet has ultimately refrained;
3. Russian intelligence agencies are split into two factions. One advocates the eradication of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. This is alarming. Not for us, but for Russia. Putin's propaganda has proven so compelling that seasoned intelligence and counterintelligence personnel have begun accepting the narratives presented on Russian television! This evokes memories of Moscow during May-June 1941 – despite knowing Stalin dismissed the possibility of a Hitler attack, Stalin’s intelligence believed the broadcasts over the public address system.
A parallel situation plagued the Kremlin in 2014. Presently, the Kremlin is fundamentally incapable of arriving at sound judgments—there is no basis for them. An informational foundation is lacking. This poses a grave threat to Russia, its neighbors, and the global community.
4. Insanity is prevalent within much of the Russian intelligence community. They stand ready to sacrifice themselves beneath Ukrainian armored vehicles, to safeguard St. Petersburg and Moscow against Banderites (!), and to eliminate Ukrainians with a sense of achievement—we are considered outright adversaries. More so than the Americans.
5. A counter faction of Chekists is strongly opposed to the war. Its members either support preserving the status quo or limiting actions to those outlined by Oleg Nazarenko, referencing his sources:
a) Russia secures assurances that we will not accede to NATO; b) Ukraine acknowledges the annexation of Crimea, and, as a sign of goodwill, we are offered “collaborative administration” of the Crimean protectorate; c) Kolomoisky relinquishes authority over Yuzhmash, and Dnepropetrovsk recommences the endeavor to revitalize Russian rocket and space (nuclear) capabilities;
6. According to Russian nuclear authorities, at least 47% of Russian nuclear munitions are nearing the point of becoming radioactive waste. A minimum of 30% of Russian intercontinental ballistic projectiles necessitate immediate repair, which only Ukrainian specialists can execute. The majority of their ICBMs are past their expiration date and could simply veer off target. If you perceive this as fiction, research the data concerning Russian ICBM test launches – the figures are startling.
7. Putin is being deterred from waging war against Ukraine by practical intelligence experts who cautioned him that should he invade Ukraine and face consequent global penalties/resolutions, China will occupy the Amur region. Russia is no longer equipped to withstand such an incursion, be it technologically or in terms of manpower. It is quite likely that the unprofitable Putin-China gas agreement is a ploy to appease the Chinese.
8. A cohort of aggressive bribe-takers is rampant within the Kremlin, having seized the prospect to profit from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict;
9. THE RUSSIAN SECURITY ESTABLISHMENTS AND PUTIN HARBOR SIGNIFICANT APPREHENSION REGARDING THE NATIONAL GUARD. Reason #1 : In contrast to the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, both overseen by Moscow – courtesy of Yanukovych, Lebedev, and Zakharchenko – the Kremlin can manipulate ANY general or colonel – it exists entirely beyond the jurisdiction of the Russian security apparatus. By definition. Moscow possesses no intelligence files on the National Guard's soldiers and leaders. Moscow lacks insights into them.
Reason #2 : Should Russian forces penetrate Ukraine, some of the NG's fighting personnel will transform into seasoned guerrillas and saboteurs. The horrors of partisan warfare in Ukraine and Belarus remain etched in the memory of the Germans.
10. The failure of the ATO stems from the fact that there is NO accord in Kyiv concerning Donbas and Moscow. Three factions exist: the first advocates surrendering Donbas in exchange for tranquility; the moderates favor substantial compromises to the Kremlin in return for amity; the third opposes concessions but aims to broker peace by the thinnest of margins. Representatives from these factions routinely confound the country’s leadership, explaining the oscillation between aerial assaults and negotiations.
Further exacerbating matters is widespread treachery within the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.
11. Yanukovych's relocation to Sochi was driven not by coastal proximity but by “misery.” Altai shamans (I fear they have been sporting prominent insignias for some time) swayed the Supreme Commander of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (VFY) that he would perish in 2014. Rostov FSB officers were appalled by Yanukovych Sr.'s neuroses and celebrated his departure with excessive drinking.
Moreover, Russian specialists imply that the Altai shaman's prediction will materialize between August and October.
12. In lieu of a military intervention, the Kremlin has formulated a fresh information strategy. Specifics elude me, but my Russian contacts informed me: the current spectacle on Russian TV is nothing short of extraordinary.
Detail : Given that Yakimenko did succeed in procuring copies of the Ukrainian special services' freelance operative files, I anticipate their deployment in the upcoming stage of the information battle. And there are a considerable number of astute, gifted, and imaginative individuals within their ranks.
13. The provision of substantial armaments to the insurgents is executed through a methodology: the Russian Ministry of Defense withdraws outdated weapons from its inventory, while the “Family” underwrites their refurbishment, provision with munitions, personnel training, and delivery to Ukraine. Simultaneously, intermediaries of the Russian intelligence services secure a sizable reward, which is funneled into financing intelligence operations abroad. The sum involved is presently around $800 million.
Personally, this brings to mind the climate of 1988-91, when Soviet professionals, realizing their control over hundreds of billions of dollars, deemed the Kremlin superfluous , and those with access to immense resources propelled the USSR towards its demise.
14. According to Russian figures, the Family has transferred $17 billion to Russia. This figure excludes artworks purloined from museums and private collections. Roughly $1.5 billion has been expended – $800 million for decommissioning, mending, and transporting weaponry and heavy equipment to Ukraine; an equivalent sum has been allocated to bribing separatists. Around $2 billion will be channeled to the president of a particular territory responsible for dispatching militants to our land.
15. Infighting plagues Yanukovych’s associates. Certain individuals are prepared to allocate funds to ensure their former superior does not endure further suffering in this life and have already engaged the services of highly skilled “sedation specialists.”
That concludes this update. Our path will be arduous. Together, we shall persevere; Mr. Pu is now nearing the situation Mr. Yang faced in December 2013.
However, we shall endure pillaging and be plundered—a fair, fluffy creature sporting precious fur is advancing southward from Siberia. Its trajectory toward Moscow or Kyiv hinges on each of us.
May peace, affection, and fulfillment prevail!
Igor MYAGCHENKOV,
FB
