Putin has maneuvered himself into this impasse.
Is Vladimir Putin contemplating a complete military intervention in Ukraine? The presence of Russian soldiers at the boundary has led NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to posit that such an intervention is feasible and that Putin hasn’t discarded his aspirations for expansion.
Putin, during discussions with his Ukrainian counterpart , Petro Poroshenko, voiced backing for a peace initiative aimed at resolving the issues in Donbass – while concurrently, he insisted on an immediate cessation of hostilities, which seems improbable given the continued resistance from pro-Russian insurgents and mercenaries, who steadfastly advocate for the “independence” of the LPR and DPR.
Putin is genuinely in a challenging predicament, facing a lack of solutions. A widespread popular revolt hasn’t materialized in “Novorossiya,” and the Donbas region, burdened by its weak economy, doesn’t captivate the Russian leader.
However, should Putin refrain from deploying troops, the Donetsk separatists will inevitably face defeat. This downfall will destabilize the most critical segment of Putin’s constituency—the nationalist faction—who yearn for the revival of a powerful nation where Russians hold a dominant position and others are expected to cater to their needs and celebrate their culture.
The increasing numbers of Russian ultra-nationalists engaged in combat in Donbas, whom the Russian head of state successfully detached from the broader opposition movement, will hold Putin accountable for what they perceive as “betrayals” in Donbas. Now, disheartened, confused, enraged, and armed, they will make their way back. Essentially, by abandoning Donbas, Putin is establishing an opposition front aimed at himself, poised to capitalize on the unavoidable decline of the aging pseudo-empire’s financial state to initiate a revolt.
Yet, introducing troops would trigger the third tier of penalties. The administration is already faltering; Crimea, with its infrastructure incapable of functioning independently from Ukraine, places a substantial strain on the weakening Russian economy; resources are insufficient to sustain both the arms buildup and social programs for the populace…
Subsequently – industry-specific sanctions, a futile and merciless outcome! Furthermore, troop deployment would equate to a genuine conflict with the Ukrainian armed forces. Certainly, the forces involved are mismatched. Nevertheless, a considerable number of casualties on both sides would be inescapable. Suppose Russian soldiers manage to seize territories controlled by separatists. A sequence of caskets will then be transported to Russia. This would undoubtedly weaken the government, potentially leading to various scenarios – ranging from widespread public discontent to a secret power grab by the elite. Coupled with economic fragility, worsened by political letdowns. It’s unfeasible. So, what options remain?
However, no action seems viable. Putin, akin to the protagonist in Russian folklore, stands at a fork in the road: proceed right and forfeit your steed; proceed left and forfeit your existence. The Russian president is devoid of any favorable political recourse – it should be noted that Putin is responsible for navigating himself into this predicament.
Vitaly PORTNIKOV
