How Poroshenko wrecked Putin’s decade-long scheme in a fortnight
Ukrainians are truly exceptional. Over half a year, they’ve pulled off numerous accomplishments: standing defiant on the Maidan without weapons under fire; removing Yanukovych, who appeared immovable; creating an army in a mere three months that took 23 years to dismantle; showing unprecedented feats of self-organization, unmatched even by the Germans; valiantly safeguarding their territory armed. Yet, they still see themselves as lesser, more foolish, than the “Botox Master” gang and his associates inside Ukraine. However, even the less-than-perfect part of Ukrainian society (Ukrainian politicians) is already adept at surprising. A quick summary of how Poroshenko dismantled the old Kabayev’s strategy, which he had spent 10 years crafting.
Introduction:
Old Kabayev understands that to succeed in any modern conflict, a change in perceptions is essential. The instigator must portray themselves as a “liberator” and “peacekeeper” to gain sympathy and obtain resources, etc. This strategy isn’t new. Stalin employed it. For instance, after invading Finland in 1939 and destroying the renowned “Mannerheim Line,” he didn’t try to conquer the nation and incorporate it into the “happy family of nations,” as the world clearly viewed his acts as “aggression.” Stalin, however, desired to enter Europe as a “liberator” and continue receiving supplies of essential raw materials and technology from advanced nations (the US, Britain, etc.).
The same concept was in play for Ukraine: initially, ignite a “conflict”—portray Kabayev’s agents as “peaceful militias” and the Ukrainian army as “aggressors”—deploy Russian forces under the pretense of “peacekeepers”—partition the country. Kabayev is aware that Western nations won’t bother to ascertain which of the locals fired first. This occurred in Georgia in 2008. Indeed, the entire operation was conceived and methodically planned over a decade (immediately following the Maidan in 2004).
But then Poroshenko emerged and thwarted everything.
1. The initial step. He grabbed the mantle of “peacemaker” (we desire peace) and presented a “peace initiative,” even as the militants were still being defeated.
2. Step two. “Secured approval for the peace plan” with Western leaders, for whom the term “peace” sounds more favorable than “completely defeating someone.” Coincidentally, the same applies to their voters. They, too, require an explanation for imposing sanctions against Russia: “for the cause of peace.”
3. Step three. Poroshenko carefully documents how Russia “fails to maintain peace” and informs Western leaders of this with equal precision. The lingering fear of “Russian tanks in Europe” is being stirred. Incidentally, there’s a suspicion that a portion of these “Russian tanks” are actually Ukrainian. The nations possess identical armaments. The State Department asserted that “Russian” signifies “Russian.” But these are merely details.
4. Step four. Solidifying the “peacekeeper” image. “Unilateral ceasefire.” Though, in actuality, this alters nothing. We continue to respond to militant shelling. Was the checkpoint bombed in an “offensive” or in “self-preservation”? No one will clarify, but we are “peacekeepers.” Simultaneously, we are deploying the army and averting the disruption of the agreement with the EU, a result Russia desperately seeks.
5. Step five. After signing the Association, we can eliminate terrorists with a clear conscience. It’s for the sake of “peace,” ultimately…
A few days prior, Kabayev recognized that he was no longer a “peacemaker,” his entire framework had crumbled in two (!!!) weeks, and the third tier of sanctions was imminent. Therefore, he reversed his own choice to deploy troops. This would present substantial dangers for him and would no longer benefit him…
So, who demonstrates intelligence here, and who displays foolishness?
P.S. As an aside, Kabaev is entirely replicating the tactics of Palestinian terrorists, who launch rockets from residential zones into Israel and then vociferously lament “civilian casualties” after a retaliatory strike.
Taras Zagorodny.
http://uapress.info/
