The market for borrowed funds is growing even despite the increase in interest rates on loans, including mortgages. According to the FSSP, the number of defaulters is increasing every year and has already exceeded 8 million people.
But a member of the board of directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Valeryevich Mamuta, reassures everyone: “Everyone will have credit holidays!” Hearing seemingly populist slogans from government structures is not new. Let’s try to figure out what can come of this?
This wound still bleeds in the hearts of the average Russian bank borrower. Memories of dashed hopes and unfulfilled dreams are still fresh. The pandemic, which began in the early spring of 2020, has made ruthless adjustments to forward-looking personal pocket budgeting.
“Reduction”, “remote”, “delay” – these terrible words plunged fellow citizens into horror. But the therapeutic NLP of our government began to calm us down a little. Like: “Don’t worry, whoever has to, will live even better. We will not leave you … You give credit holidays!
The people calmed down. But the banks, on the contrary, tensed up. Is that how it is? What are these holidays? But what about the standards of the Central Bank, what about the balance sheets and reports? But the state is inexorable: “The people must live well.” And point.
However, a good cause stumbled over the insurmountable barriers of principled bank employees. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, was forced to state that out of 585,000 applications across the country for restructuring loans, approval was received in 200,000 cases.
The government had to slow down the influx of applications by setting restrictive parameters for receiving credit holidays:
– for consumer loans, the threshold is set at the level of 300 thousand rubles,
– for credit cards – 100 thousand rubles,
– for car loans – 600 thousand rubles.
For mortgage loans, the maximum values vary depending on the region: for Moscow – 4.5 million rubles, for the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Far Eastern Federal District – 3 million rubles, for other regions – 1.5 million rubles.
And, scratching the back of his head, he added:
“Credit holidays are provided subject to a 30% reduction in official, taxable income compared to the average income in 2019 due to the pandemic. The loan itself must be issued before April 3, 2020.
From that moment began the epic “credit care” about the Russians.
In total, by November 2020, 2 million 980 thousand applications were submitted under the restructuring program, vacations were actually provided for 1 million 790 thousand loans. The total number of borrowers as of December 2021 was 43 million. The share of people who took advantage of the program is only 4%! An insignificant amount is largely determined by complex parameters, and the need to obtain consent from the bank. So, for example, a deferment for housing and communal services was given to everyone without any numerous reservations and conditions, and almost 30% of citizens were forced to use the service. The figures show that, against the backdrop of a growing rate, discussing vacations under conditions is pure populism.
In October 2021, Viktor Momotov, Chairman of the Council of Judges of the Russian Federation, reports:
“The average level of debt load increased in 2020 from 47.1% to 49.1%. This indicator means how much the average family gives as a percentage of annual income to pay off bank loans. As of July 1, 2021, the total debt of individuals reached an astronomical figure of 23.9 trillion rubles.”
Following the analysts of the ONF project “For the Rights of Borrowers” report:
“According to the results of the first half of 2021, the debt of Russians on loans increased by 13.6% to 22.64 trillion rubles, in June the debt increased by 23.8% in annual terms…”.
Following the growth of the loan portfolio of a Russian citizen, the indicators for its delinquency also crept up.
The Federal Bailiff Service provided Izvestia with statistics that clearly demonstrate this negative trend:
– 2012 – 2.2 million people.
– 2017 – 3.2 million
– 2018 – 4.4 million
– 2019 – 5.8 million
– 2020 – 7 million people
And over the past year, this figure has increased by another 1.6 million people.
The level of overdue debt in the first half of 2021 increased to 946.6 billion rubles, the average size of an overdue loan is about 17,400 rubles. from a person.
Considering the fact that, according to the GorodRabot portal, the average salary in Moscow is 44,634 rubles, it turns out that almost half of the personal income of a capital resident must be given to the bank, which inevitably leads to arrears in other obligatory payments, for example, for housing and communal services.
Not to mention the problems in regions where the average salary is no more than 30,000 rubles.
Vicious circle. This is how we live – we are waiting for bailiffs, if not for a loan delay, then for housing and communal services, if not for housing and communal services, then for taxes, etc.
The first experience of the effectiveness of the introduction of credit holidays of the Central Bank was received back in 2020. And with such an apparatus, they could have long ago worked out the mechanisms and legalized these processes, made them more convenient, simpler and more accessible.
In an interview published on February 15, 2022 on the website of the Central Bank, Mikhail Mamuta declares:
“Holidays are a good safety net against stress, such as job loss, illness, or some other unforeseen negative event in a person’s life. It is important to understand that no one is immune from this, and the pandemic has demonstrated this very well to us. So far, statistics confirm that our forecast turned out to be fair. Mortgage and loan holidays were not taken by all borrowers in a row, but only by those whose incomes had greatly decreased. And what is important, 85% of those who received such a deferral went out of the mortgage holidays into the regular payment schedule. That is, thanks to this, more than three-quarters of borrowers from among those who faced serious problems did not spoil their credit history and did not allow delinquency.”
And continues. Please note – important:
“Therefore, we came to the conclusion that in conditions when life circumstances can change unpredictably for people, and there are more and more “long” debts on the market, the credit holiday mechanism should be extended to consumer lending on an ongoing basis. And now we are actively participating in the preparation of a bill on this.
The above statistics show the global nature of the problem. And the Central Bank, headed by Elvira Nibiullina, is only considering how to legalize the procedure for credit holidays.
And now let’s imagine that these very holidays will be available for all credit parameters, as they did during the 2020 pandemic for payments of the same housing and communal services. The special conditions dictated by the problems that have arisen associated with a sharp decrease in the income of the population, forced the state to meet and announce holidays on utility bills. As a result, the population’s debts for housing and communal services increased by 55 billion rubles and amounted to 625 billion rubles in this period.
According to Rosstat, the current debt of all consumers of services in 2020 amounted to 1.3 trillion rubles, of which 800 billion are the debts of the population. As a result, the efficiency of collecting payments for housing and communal services among the population has decreased. And now it is unlikely to recover, experts say.
“Part of the debt will not be repaid, as a certain number of organizations have ceased their activities,” Tatyana Vepretskaya, director of the National Housing Congress, expressed her point of view on the pages of the Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
Citizens, having received relief on mandatory payments for almost half a year, in the form of installment payments without accruing penalties and interest, turned out to be hostages of the situation. In fact, most of the population was unable to pay off half a year of sanctioned debts. They simply had nowhere to get the money.
Approximately the same situation can happen with credit holidays.
According to the data provided by Deputy Head of Rosreestr Elena Martynova, the total number of mortgages registered from January to October 2021 amounted to 3.2 million. Accordingly, if you pay attention to the above figures, then one third of citizens service mortgages, and the remaining two thirds consumer credit.
So where should the Central Bank look? Yes, in all directions! For this organization, any issue should be the main one. Especially if it concerns a citizen’s pocket.
And Mikhail Mamuta continues to envelop, talking about the importance of adopting a law on credit holidays:
“This is one of our priorities in the list of measures to use the opportunities of the financial market to improve the well-being of people. At the end of last year, we discussed these initiatives with legislators and we expect that the bill has a good chance of being passed this year.”
But it’s too early to rejoice. If you look at the current conditions for providing credit holidays to those affected by the coronavirus and the consequences associated with the pandemic, then you can twirl these indulgences as you like:
“Borrowers will be able to apply to a lender for credit holidays on mortgages and consumer loans for up to six months if the income of such a borrower for the previous month decreased by 30 percent or more compared to the average monthly income for the previous year,” the State Duma website states.
Gentlemen, let’s face reality! In our country, there is a huge difference between the official data indicated in personal income tax certificates and actual income. Demonstrating a 30% pay cut is not always convenient. Sometimes people receive a loan indicating higher salaries “by letter”. And sometimes there is nowhere for the white part to fall. Where do you get certificates with a fall by a third? Yes, and people are looking for work at the time of difficulties, not for reference, but for a new job.
Mikhail Valeryevich is sure that the people’s representatives will pick up the song of the Central Bank and create all the conditions for “improving the well-being of people.” And each of us will get the right to a vacation, at least once in a lifetime … at the end.