Previously, Medvedev became the curator of the military-industrial complex and regained control of the government on a number of issues. Such an expansion of influence must sooner or later result in appointments. The main obstacle to the implementation of this scenario so far is the politician himself.
Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to Moscow, which former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is already going to the Russian capital, should answer many geopolitical questions that have accumulated over the past year. The results of the negotiations may also adjust the programs of the Russian government to counter the risks of sanctions. And the fact that the Kremlin decided to entrust preparations for the visit to Medvedev (and not to the relevant Foreign Ministry) can be perceived as recognition of the special status of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council.
Despite the fact that today the ex-premier does not occupy the first posts in the structures of federal power, he has experience in successfully resolving geopolitical crises. The politician was the president of Russia in 2008, during the hostilities in South Ossetia, and like no one else knows what pitfalls heads of state have to face at a time when guns start talking instead of diplomats.
For the past three years, Dmitry Medvedev has served as Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. A month ago, the President of Russia also appointed him his first deputy in the military-industrial commission of the Russian Federation.
Today, a politician has powers that allow him not only to formulate goals in the field of state security, but also to be directly involved in their achievement, setting tasks on a number of issues for the Government of the country.
It is impossible not to take into account the peculiarities of Asian etiquette, according to which it is yesterday’s guest who invites the hospitable host to his home. On the eve of 2023, Dmitry Medvedev made an unexpected visit to Beijing. His talks with Xi Jinping were presented as a meeting of two equals. The public part of the conversation concerned cooperation between the two ruling parties – the Communist Party of China and United Russia. The fact that there was also a non-public part is evidenced by the letter of the Russian president transmitted by Medvedev Xi and the words of the head of China that “China is ready for rapprochement with Russia for the sake of fair global governance.”
There is no unequivocal answer to the question of what these negotiations will give to Dmitry Medvedev himself. A number of experts published forecasts in which they called him one of the candidates to succeed Vladimir Putin as president. In their opinion, the scenario of castling committed by Putin and Medvedev in 2008, under certain conditions, may become relevant in 2024. And Medvedev’s role in bringing Russia closer to China fits into this scenario. But there is one thing: Dmitry Medvedev is approaching 2024 with completely different convictions than those that he broadcast during his presidential term.
In the decade before last, Medvedev was at the forefront of Russia’s cooperation with the West and at the forefront of progress. He had a clear plan for internal transformations that could give a new impetus to the economy. This is how Dmitry Medvedev formulated his program in 2008: “We must concentrate on the peculiar four “and” – institutions, infrastructure, innovation, investment.” And this program during his presidency showed its viability.
After moving to the premier post, the four “i” in Medvedev’s work gradually began to fade into the background. And in 2020, Medvedev himself faded into the background. After his resignation from the post of prime minister, he received the post of deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
The former president emerged from political suspended animation in October 2021 by publishing an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta about the pointlessness of contacts with the Ukrainian leadership. Then the country first saw the new Medvedev, who changed the language of the progressive to reduced vocabulary. He called the “Crimean platform” “moronic”, the Ukrainian law on indigenous peoples “bastard”, Ukrainian nationalists “scoundrels”, the leadership of Ukraine “ignorant”. Subsequent events showed that at that time Medvedev’s new image was only being tested. Its main updated version was released only in 2022.
In March last year, Dmitry Medvedev discovered Telegram. Using this messenger, the former president began to present his new program to the world. There is no trace of the four “and” in this program. They were replaced by other words that are not customary to say out loud in polite society.
“If you are not considered, it’s bad. As in childhood, when people from the neighboring one came to fight in your yard. If you chickened out and screwed home, you are nobody and you will not be called anywhere else. And if you hit first, then the chances of defending your own become significantly higher, ”Medvedev himself broadcast his new worldview on July 9 on the Telegram channel.
Yard fights anticipate mutual insults.
Perhaps, in order to recreate this picture, Medvedev introduced the concept of “schmuck” into political circulation.
This word is from thieves’ jargon, into which it was introduced in the 20th century thanks to the Odessa thieves (they also enriched “fenya” with such lexemes as “ksiva”, “garbage” and “kid”). The deputy chairman of the Security Council used it in an impersonal form, alluding to someone from Vladimir Zelensky’s entourage: “Some schmuck said that they need planes and <...> submarines.”
The politician’s sayings, more familiar to the ear, also appeared: “senile” (used in Medvedev’s Telegram channel three times), “freaks” (twice), “bastards” (twice), “geeks” (four times), “rabble” ( once), “degenerates” (twice) and many other expressions.
With even greater enthusiasm, Dmitry Medvedev began to use allegorical images of animals. In April 2022, in one of his posts, he said that the Kyiv authorities had transformed the history of the 20th century, composing it from “zoological Nazis, murderers and collaborators.” Five months later, he used the word again, explaining that the United States was attempting to reform the UN Security Council “in a zoological anti-Russian frenzy.”
In other posts, the deputy head of the Security Council explains what kind of animal has gathered on the other side of the border and expresses a desire to trample on Russian statehood. In the face of Ukrainian opponents, he sees representatives of the canine family.
Arguing on the Day of National Unity on the topic “Why our cause is right,” Medvedev describes them as follows: “A large pack of barking dogs from the western kennel.”
And in a post dedicated to the results of the regular consultations of Western leaders in Ramstein, he clarifies that these dogs are also inferior: “The Americans and a pack of their castrated dogs got tired.”
In the face of the leaders of the United States and European countries, Medvedev observes artiodactyls. In a post with New Year greetings, he addresses the Western world: “Happy New Year to you, Anglo-Saxon friends and their joyfully grunting gilts!” At the same time, Medvedev believes, the Western beast does not live well enough. Speaking about the hegemony of the States, he comes to the conclusion that “the farther, the more difficult it is for the fat” boars from the barnyard “”. There are also more ornate formulations: “With them, a motley pack of grunting pigs and narrow-minded inhabitants from the collapsed Western empire with saliva flowing down their chins from degeneration.”
In one of his posts, Medvedev claims that the flow of obscene language is not accidental – it is his internal position and moral choice: “I am often asked why my posts on Telegram are so harsh. Answer: I hate them. They are bastards and geeks. They want death for us, Russia. And as long as I’m alive, I will do everything to make them disappear.”
The second leitmotif in the speeches of the ex-premier was the prophecy of a nuclear apocalypse, which forced out references to the country’s internal socio-economic problems from his rhetoric.
“We can assume that the Horsemen of the Apocalypse are already on their way and all hope is only in the Lord God, in the Almighty. But you can still try to turn this international situation into a calmer direction, ”Medvedev said in an interview with Al Jazeera in June.
“The idea of punishing a country that has the largest nuclear potential is absurd in itself. And potentially poses a threat to the existence of humanity,” he warns on July 6, 2022.
Two weeks later, Medvedev again whips up the atmosphere: “NATO continues, contrary to logic and common sense, to approach the borders of Russia, creating a real threat of world conflict and the death of a significant part of humanity.”
“The Kyiv camarilla gave birth to a project of “security guarantees”, which, in fact, are a prologue to the third world war,” wrote the deputy head of the Security Council in September.
And the more insulting militaristic expressions Medvedev used, the more they were perceived with distrust. In July 2022, the ex-premier warned the West that any attack on Crimea would be fraught with dire consequences for him: “If something like this happens, Judgment Day will come for them all there at once. Very fast and heavy. It will be very difficult to hide.”
In the following months, Ukraine carried out several drone attacks on the Crimea, in October there was an explosion on the Crimean bridge. The “Judgment Day” promised by Medvedev did not follow. Attacks on the infrastructure of Ukraine do not count – they are not fast and it is not so difficult to hide from them.
Gradually, among an increasing number of Russians, the fear caused by Medvedev’s statements was replaced by smiles. The Internet was filled with unflattering memes with the ex-prime minister and questions about his state of health.
And in 2023, Medvedev himself changed his rhetoric. Defeatist moods began to flicker in his posts. In January, he first uttered the phrase “losing the war.” Even the very assumption of defeat, according to the scientific canons of propaganda, reduces the will of the nation to win.
“The loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. The nuclear powers have not lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,” the ex-premier wrote.
A couple of days later, the main hawk of Russian politics continued his thought, saying that an early resolution of the Ukrainian conflict should not be expected, and the way out of it depends not on Russia, but on the position of other countries: “Firstly, it will be very difficult. Secondly, in the event of a protracted conflict, at some point a new military alliance will form from those countries that the Americans and their pack of castrated dogs got. This has always happened in the history of mankind during long wars. And then the States will finally abandon old Europe and the remnants of the unfortunate Ukrainians, and the world will again come to a state of equilibrium.”
Despite the fact that the “new Medvedev” project finally became part of the Russian political space, it failed to change it in a meaningful way.
“The dog barks, but the caravan goes on,” Dmitry Medvedev commented on the West’s claims to the legitimacy of elections in Russia back in September 2021 with this proverb. Despite his harsh criticism of all kinds of animals, the “dogs” continue to bark, and where exactly in search of their own development and growth of well-being should the “caravan” named Russia be sent, it did not become clearer from Dmitry Medvedev’s speeches.
It is not known how the Chinese partners assess Medvedev’s new image. PRC politicians live in accordance with ancient Chinese wisdom. In accordance with the precept of Sun Tzu: “Let your plans be dark and irresistible, like the night, and when you move, fall like lightning.” They will prefer to hide their opinions and intentions to the last, in order to then make the most correct decision.
