The National Bank is forecasting a simultaneous rise in four communal service fees.
The Ukrainian National Bank is forecasting a progressive surge in 2026 in the charges for electricity, natural gas, heating supply, and domestic hot water for citizens.
This was conveyed in the NBU's July Inflation Overview. The paper indicates that fees will stay consistent until the close of 2025 due to a freeze on increases, however, a surge is conceivable from the following year.
“In 2026, these fees will commence a gradual alignment with their economically validated amounts,” the overview points out.
The regulator emphasizes that present fees aid in restricting regulated inflation temporarily. Nevertheless, the resolution to progressively augment fees stems from the necessity to normalize the performance of the power grid.
The National Bank cautions that the state of affairs concerning energy fees remains unpredictable—regarding both the schedule and degree of their escalations. This generates hazards for the inflation prediction.
Should fees escalate intensely and swiftly, this may trigger a fresh inflationary episode. After all, amplified rates for electricity, gas, or heat will instantly prompt elevated costs for supplementary commodities and offerings. Furthermore, the administration will be required to notably broaden subsidies.
“A considerable elevation in energy costs to promptly tackle imbalances in the energy segment will yield supplementary inflationary strain and mandate a noteworthy expansion of household assistance,” the overview articulates.
Conversely, should communal service costs endure at reduced levels for a prolonged duration, this will cultivate latent economic issues within the energy segment.
“Postponing judgments on harmonizing communal service fees with economically justified benchmarks for an extended period will lead to diminished inflation, but will also accumulate quasi-fiscal disparities and degrade the economic health of state-operated energy enterprises. This will heighten the perils of instability in the energy marketplace, weaken the sector's investment prospects, and merely defer cost pressures into the future,” the NBU cautions.
Currently, the electricity fee for households in Ukraine is 4.32 UAH/kWh and will be operative until at least October 31, 2025.
The most recent instance of revising the electricity fee for the populace occurred on June 1, 2024, when it grew by 60%.
The annual established-rate gas fee for residential users will remain unchanged from May 1, 2025, to April 30, 2026, at UAH 7.96 per cubic meter (VAT inclusive). Current residential gas and electricity fees compensate for half of the market value.
