Axios: The White House is preparing for a protracted crisis in Iran until September, Trump risks falling into an “escalation trap.”
Instability in the Middle East and US involvement could continue until September, even if the war with Iran enters a low-intensity phase, Axios reports, citing White House sources.
In Washington and capitals around the world, officials are preparing for a much longer crisis than the initially announced 4-6 weeks (that is, until April).
Trump risks falling into an “escalation trap,” where the stronger side is forced to continue attacks to demonstrate dominance, even when the returns are diminishing.
And “what the Iranians are doing in the Strait of Hormuz makes Trump even more decisive,” a senior administration official said. The US president could withdraw from the war tomorrow, but Iran could continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and raise oil prices so high that the US would be forced to intervene again.
Many White House officials initially opposed the war, but Trump insisted: “I just want to do it.” According to the source, Trump greatly overestimated his ability to topple the regime without committing ground troops and also “believed his own propaganda” after the swift strikes on Iran last summer and the kidnapping of Maduro in January.
“He saw several quick and decisive victories with outstanding military effectiveness,” says an administration official.
