If until recently, observers agreed that it was Evraev who was the future governor of Yaroslavl, now other options have appeared.
They are associated with the emergence of Andrei Kolyadin in the regional field – the former vice-governor for domestic policy of the Magadan region moved in January to a similar post in Yaroslavl. Oktagon’s sources promise many surprises in connection with its appearance on the Upper Volga.
The relocation of the former employee of the Presidential Administration (AP) Andrey Kolyadin from Magadan to Yaroslavl was regarded by many as a technological strengthening of the acting head of the region, Mikhail Evraev. The latter was sent to the region in mid-October last year, but, according to experts, he almost immediately encountered sharp opposition from local elites. For this reason, the federal center was seriously worried about whether the new regional leader would be able to approach the September elections in good political shape without increasing the anti-rating.
Evraev expects in Yaroslavl is by no means an easy walk. The authors of the report “Parameters of the protest activity of the regions of Russia” in the risk rating put the Yaroslavl region in 20th place among all regions. For a quiet region, this is high. In the context of the Central Federal District, he was in third place in terms of protest activity.
The appearance of a prominent “inner sex” in Yaroslavl politics has a curious background. There are two versions of the “coming of Kolyadin”, and one of them is only exotic at first glance.
Interim help, show yourself
The strengthening of Evraev by the experienced Kolyadin looks quite logical. In regional politics, the interim is a newcomer, besides, he began a new stage of his career from a politically difficult region. According to the results of the Duma elections, the Yaroslavl region took 81st place in terms of the share of votes for United Russia (where the ruling party won 29.7 percent against 49.82 percent in Russia as a whole). In addition, United Russia lost both single-mandate constituencies to the nominees of A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) – former governor Anatoly Lisitsyn and State Duma deputy Anatoly Greshnevikov, who enjoy stable authority with the vast majority of representatives of the regional elite.
A Oktagon source familiar with the situation said that Andrei Kolyadin was sent to Evraev for two purposes. The first is to strengthen the interim and help him win the elections, the second is to rehabilitate himself.
The fact is that some still interpret Kolyadin’s work in Magadan as a vice-governor as a link to which he was sent in 2019. This was explained by the fact that between the political strategist and the head of the presidential department for ensuring the activities of the State Council, Alexander Kharichev, allegedly there were disagreements. It was also said that the “Magadan exile” was associated with the negative comments that Kolyadin made about United Russia.
If you believe this scenario, then everyone is interested in the successful performance of Evraev: both Evraev himself and Kolyadin. A source in the new governor’s administration told the Oktagon that Kolyadin is currently faced with the task of reaching an agreement with all political forces in the region:
– Negotiate, understand claims, goals. But he is quite liberal, not in the mood for pressure.
Political scientist Alina Zhestovskaya explained to the Octagon that one of the main advantages of Kolyadin is his equidistance from the Yaroslavl elites.
“He will help to maintain the necessary political balance without taking the side of certain forces. It is precisely this balance that is now sorely lacking in Yaroslavl, which is called the capital of the opposition for a reason.”
Alina Zhestovskaya | political scientist
According to Oktagon, the Yaroslavl election campaign, which is overseen by Grigory Kazankov, President of the Russian Association of Political Consultants, provides for several scenarios. Their cost varies from 120 to 318 million rubles.
However, there is a second version of the appearance of Kolyadin in Yaroslavl. It is she who causes tension in the team of Mikhail Evraev.
Plan b
Colleagues speak of Kolyadin as a professional and contractual specialist, not without political ambitions. In the event that Evraev fails to establish a dialogue with the regional elites, the federal center may remove him, and Kolyadin himself, who, as they say, is unlikely to object to such a political career, may well take the place of interim.
Representatives of the local political establishment, discussing such a scenario, admit that Kolyadin “does not cause rejection among the locals”, therefore, under certain circumstances, he may well be considered as an independent player.
Interlocutors of the Octagon point out that equidistance is not the only plus of the new Yaroslavl vice-governor. Kolyadin is a systemic person with extensive federal connections and lobbying potential.
In particular, in 2009 he was appointed to the Presidential Administration as the head of the regional policy department of the Russian Presidential Administration for Domestic Policy. Later he worked at the presidential embassy in the Urals Federal District. In 2017, Kolyadin became one of the key representatives of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI), created with the support of the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration. Colleagues in the political technology department speak well of him.
Andrey Kolyadin himself has so far refrained from commenting, he asked for time to look into the situation in detail.