AndSource of the Channel Message for December 01, 2022. #Vectors of the Day The market background is positive. Asia is in the black, the US and the EU are in the black, the commodity market is in the black. News that will affect the markets: Annual inflation in Russia as of November 28 slowed to 12.04% from 12.3%. The European Union still managed to agree. The price ceiling for Russian oil will be set at $62. This is higher than the price of Urals now, it would be time to breathe a sigh of relief. One thing is not clear – why the ceiling at all, if the embargo comes into force on December 5? Russia will not supply oil to countries that will support the oil price ceiling – Foreign Ministry. And what about those who support the embargo? Powell: Reducing rates is not something that needs to be done anytime soon. So the Fed's policy is unlikely to become softer. The Federation Council prematurely dismissed Alexei Kudrin from the post of head of the Accounts Chamber. The only news here is that so far everything is going according to plan and in accordance with forecasts. We are waiting for Kudrin in Yandex. Salaries of state employees next year will grow by 8%. And inflation is now 12%. State employees will become poorer by 4%. From December 14, the Moscow Exchange will add shares of unprofitable kicksharing Whoosh to the first quotation list. Today: ????The results of the rebalancing of the MSCI index will come into effect. ????The press conference of the Bank of Russia on the Financial Stability Review will take place. @nebrexnya
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The ADAMAS jewelry network has not taken a very smart approach to data protection. A database of buyers, couriers and orders leaked to the network. Data about full name, address, gender, date of birth, telephone, mail, passport data (not everywhere), total amount of orders for 539,900 are publicly available. And for 467,116 orders, the date, amount, composition and buyer data are known. Potentially, the leak could become no less noisy than the leak of Yandex.Food data. From the Yandex database, the investigators found out where officials and their children order food (that is, what kind of real estate they actually use). And now it will become known who bought what and what jewelry. For example, why does the official Ivan Ivanov buy a necklace for his ex-wife for a million rubles, whom he divorced as soon as he became an official, and gave her all his business? And for a mass audience, the base is even scarier – wives can ask questions to whom their husband bought jewelry. To say that ADAMAS disgraced is to say nothing. @nebrexnya
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#UtronaExchange began cheerfully on a positive market background. The index opened with a gap up and has gained 0.64% since the start of trading. There is strong resistance in the index – in the region of 2190 points, if it is possible to break through it, we should expect the growth of Russian securities. So far, gold miners are the locomotives of the process: Polymetal (+3.36), Polyus (+2.4%). Novatek (+1.1%) is doing well, but the list of noticeably growing companies has been exhausted. There are no strong declines within the index. MTS (-0.85%), Aeroflot (-0.72%), Tatneft (-0.63%), PIK (-0.62%) lose a little. Outside the index, papers calmed down a bit. Rusgrain adds +6.48% (which is no longer 20%, as he walked the last few days). Kazanorgsintez added 4.73% of capitalization. One of yesterday's missiles, Rusolovo, is decreasing (-5.41%). There are no other sharp movements on the Russian stock exchange. A dollar is worth 61.18. Euro – 63.91. @nebrexnya
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Oligarch Oleg Deripaska has joined the “metallurgical kings” who have been suffering under the yoke of sanctions and Russian taxes since the beginning of the year. Recall that the big “steel troika” – Rashnikov, Mordashov, Lisin – have been sounding the alarm for many months. Production is falling, sales are also falling, European markets have been closed for them, their assets have been seized, they are not being helped with expansion into Asian markets, where they are now trading at a loss, and they are also taxing their “native” government. Now Deripaska and his RUSAL will be in this boat. By autumn, aluminum imports from Russia to the United States – one of the largest buyers (in the past) – fell to their lowest levels. The volume of imports in September amounted to $1.4 million (a year earlier – $25.4 million). And this is without the introduction of an embargo, which is currently being worked out. Recently, the London Stock Exchange wanted to ban the supply of aluminum from the Russian Federation to its warehouses (so far they have refused). Bauxite suppliers throw “RUSAL” one after another. True, RUSAL, unlike metallurgists, has its pluses. China increased aluminum imports by 20%, and in the EU, industrialists begged the authorities not to impose sanctions on Russian aluminum. This should please the oligarch, whose aluminum plant in Montenegro was finally confiscated the other day and thrown at 600 million euros.
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Suddenly, the flow of tourists to Mongolia increased 75 times. (Yes, at seventy-five). The country was visited by 92 thousand Russians, and it became the leader in the growth of tourist flow from Russia. Since the beginning of the year, Russians have made 17.1 million trips abroad. Growth compared to last year was 25%. The leaders are Abkhazia (4.4 million, +106%), Turkey (3.4 million, +98.7%) and the United Arab Emirates (708.6 thousand, +50%). It remains to separate tourism from relocation: a significant share in this volume is occupied by those driven by mobilization. There are no exact estimates (from 350 thousand to a million). But, judging by the GDP growth of neighboring countries, the figure is significant. @nebrexnya
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The ceiling on Russian oil is almost ripe. A very long procedure ended with the fact that the European Commission proposed to the EU countries to agree on a ceiling of $60 per barrel. If it is accepted, it will be illegal to buy oil at a higher price. The solution is a compromise – it is below the limit of $65-70, which was discussed earlier. But much higher than the Polish-Baltic $30. Whether Poland will agree will soon become clear. Most likely yes, because if the country starts to resist, it will only slow down the decision for which it advocates so much. Moscow's rhetoric has also changed markedly. Just a couple of weeks ago, Russian politicians said they would have nothing to do with those who would support the ceiling on Russian oil. Today, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the Russian Federation is not interested in the price ceiling, and will negotiate directly with partners. Moreover, there is something to negotiate. The price ceiling is significantly higher than the current price of Russian oil. If Brent has been trading in the range of 80-90 in recent weeks, then Russian oil is sold at a huge discount. For Urals at the beginning of the week they gave $52. So it's still a plus. And most importantly, four days remain before the embargo on the import of Russian oil delivered by sea comes into force. As a result, the measure, which was tortured for several months, is actually meaningless. Russia's loss of the premium European hydrocarbon market was evident on February 24 at 7 am. There is no point in the ceiling on the eve of the embargo. There is no point in the ceiling, which is higher than the current cost of oil from the Russian Federation. Apparently, the EU just wants to show itself: “we agreed and even made it to the deadline.” If, of course, they succeed. @nebrexnya
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MPs will keep their income secret. It is planned to submit a bill to the State Duma, according to which municipal and regional deputies on a voluntary basis will not have to declare income and property. And this is another “useful” legislative act of Klishas-Krasheninnikov. Since the regional deputies do not receive a salary (and this is a common practice), then there is nothing to go into their income. No one doubts that since a person came to work for an idea, then he is honest by default and will never try to steal anything from the budget? And the “ideological” ones will never allow a conflict of interests. But seriously, the most corrupt part of the deputy corps is being taken out from under the gaze of observers. Those who do not receive income in legislative assemblies obviously receive it somewhere else. And the buttons to press came not just like that, but with their own interests. And now it will be possible not only to hide their illegal income, but also to hide the accounts of their wives. And they, as a rule, earn much more from officials and deputies. For example, Dmitry Peskov's wife Tatyana Navka earned 218.5 million rubles in 2021, while Peskov himself earned only 14.5 million. The wife of the governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory (from whom Klishas is a senator) Alexandra Ussa earned only a little more than her husband, 20.5 million against 19. But at the head of the local Ministry of Construction, Mikhail Rabushko, the wife officially brought 4 million to the house, and the minister himself only 1.7. But this story is best illustrated by the declaration of one of the co-authors of the bill. Deputy Valery Hartung earned 30.9 million in 2021, and his wife – 181.6 million. Many will want to hide such talented and hard-working wives. @nebrexnya
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TOP-5 stocks that grew in November Over the past month, the Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.4%. This is understandable: there have been no major changes in geopolitics, and nothing really special has happened inside the country either. Against this background, private stories stand out, such as the growth of shares of gold mining companies and the topic of dividends for 9 months of Rosseti subsidiaries, so that the new network monster that is being created on the basis of FGC UES can escape taxes. December is likely to be more interesting, as the G7 embargo on Russian oil kicks off along with the ever-falling price of a barrel. 5th place: Rosseti Volga +15% This is an amazing story. The company has a loss for 9 months under IFRS of 1.3 billion rubles, there are no dividends and it is not planned for the next year, unlike the MRSK sisters, and it is growing by 15%. For the 3rd quarter, profit also fell by 33% compared to the 3rd quarter of last year. There is no apparent reason for this stock to rise in November. 4th place: Qiwi +18% Sergey Solonin continues to milk foreigners stuck in Qiwi shares. Now he has offered them another offer to buy shares at $2 each for $5 million. And in Russia, Qiwi costs 402 rubles. Here is such a business. In addition, the company remains profitable, but dividends should not be expected due to the Cypriot registration of Qiwi. 3rd place: Rosseti Center and Privolzhye +19% Unlike Rosseti Volga, growth here is somehow justified, since the company's board of directors recommended 0.03015 rubles of dividends for 9 months, which gives a 16% yield to current prices. However, it is likely that these are the last dividends before the reorganization of Rosseti and FGC UES. Next year, these shares are to be exchanged for shares in the new FGC. 2nd place: Polyus +21% Despite a slight decrease in production, the company is doing well with sales, and this is the main thing now. The price on the world market is growing, and individuals in Russia continue to buy those precious metals that were previously exported. But there are also banks, so the situation for large gold miners is quite good compared to many other industries. 1st place: Polymetal +21% Gold rose above $1,780/oz, silver hit a new high since the beginning of June (above $22.30/oz). There seems to be reasons for growth (see Pole above). However, buyers for some reason do not take into account the British jurisdiction of the company, which is financially stuck between Russia, Kazakhstan and England. And no solution has yet been offered to Russian investors. @nebrexnya
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