#MorningNebrehnya Not only oil, but also gas in Russia is being produced less and less. Production in the first half fell by 15%. In January-June it amounted to 267 billion cubic meters. And LNG was produced less by 4.5% – 16 million tons. Moreover, not only Gazprom indulges in cutbacks, which still cannot agree on normal exports to China. Novatek’s indicators are also falling, which, in fact, almost did not suffer from the sanctions. Given that the price of gas at the TTF terminal is currently hovering around $320-350 per thousand cubic meters, this is another big blow to oil and gas revenues. Production cuts amid record low prices. Couldn’t get off the oil needle yourself? Dropped by force. @nebrexnya
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#Vectors of the Day The market background is positive. Asia is growing briskly, +1.5%. The US and the EU are also growing up. In the commodities market, everything was glowing green except, perhaps, for nickel, which is losing almost 4%. ????????USD 90.05 ????????EUR 99.72 ????????CNY12.58 ????BTC $29.4 ⬛️Brent $83.42 ?? ??AU $1979 Events that will affect the markets: ????Zelensky asks the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law in the country and general mobilization for 90 days – until November 15. This will cancel parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn. ????The Ukraine-NATO Council believes that Russia’s actions in the Black Sea affect the economic zone of Bulgaria, which is a member of the alliance. ????Rebels in Niger (West Africa) hold the country’s president. The country has large deposits of uranium, which is of interest to both Russia and Europe. The US Federal Reserve raised the base interest rate by 0.25% to 5.5% per annum. The Fed no longer predicts a recession in the US. ????Inflation in the Russian Federation from July 18 to July 24 accelerated to 0.23%, the annual rose to 4%. According to Rosstat, of course. ????The Ministry of Finance placed OFZ for 114.5 billion rubles. ????The share of non-residents in Russian OFZs fell to 8.8% in June. ????Net profit of TGK-1 under RAS for the first half of the year amounted to 4.34 billion rubles against 8.28 billion rubles a year earlier. ????Magnet bought out 21.5% of the shares as part of the tender offer. ????The Board of Directors of TMK recommended paying dividends in the amount of 13 rubles 45 kopecks per share for the first half of 2023. Dividend yield: 7.8%. Today: ????OKEY to release 2Q23 operating results ????ECB meeting ????RusHydro, TGK-1 and Unipro to publish 2Q23 RAS results ????Yandex to publish 2023 IFRS Financial Results @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis of Finam Financial Statement, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the discrepancy between inflation figures from different researchers: Significant discrepancies in inflation estimates from Romir and Rosstat, in principle, are not new, therefore they do not mean that Rosstat inflation is coming soon catch up with Romirovskaya. One of the main reasons for the discrepancies is the differences in the structure of the consumer basket. According to Romir himself: “Unlike Rosstat, the FMCG deflator measures prices for a basket of products that Russians actually buy, and not for a basic one.” The final result largely depends on the structure of the basket, the choice of representative products, especially in the context of a significant change in the range of available products compared to the situation at the beginning of 2022. Here you can argue endlessly who is right. Romir’s estimate is based on “purchases actually made by residents of Russian cities”, which is intuitive for consumers and, in general, is closer to inflation observed by consumers (for example, according to the latest Infom survey, in July, the median estimate of observed annual inflation was 13.8%) . Rosstat’s estimate methodologically more fully takes into account changes in prices for goods and services in the economy as a whole, although the structure of the consumer basket may differ significantly from the “personal inflation” of many observers. However, one thing in common is that the data from both Romir and Rosstat show an acceleration of monthly inflation in June, and this process is likely to continue in July due to the pass-through of the ruble depreciation and increased inflationary expectations of households and enterprises into consumer prices. @nebrexnya
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It seems that the attempts of the Central Bank to do something with financial literacy in Russia failed miserably. The choice of assets is strange. Let’s say a deposit in a state bank, insured for 1.4 million, looks reliable. Although if some giant from the top 10 collapses, no DIA will be calculated, and there may not be enough money in the budget. But why, other things being equal, not OFZ? The percentage is about the same, and the insolvency of the Russian Federation is mathematically less likely than that of an individual bank, even a large one. That is, the risks are lower. With gold in general in Russia is a different story. In March 2022, when the Central Bank was imposed with sanctions, and gold had to be put somewhere, VAT was canceled on its sale, which attracted crowds of physicists. Only then did it break through $2020 per ounce, and then roll back to $1650. No one expected such volatility from a protective asset, and physicists sold the metal. But the Central Bank, most likely, managed to dump everything superfluous. And it’s strange to even talk about real estate. Resale has dipped to new buildings by 40%, because developers are being saved by preferential mortgages. Weaken state support, and the entire industry will take shape like panels in renovation. It is incorrect to call what citizens choose investments. These tools are not even good for savings. @nebrexnya
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Small business digitization will fail if blindly pursued. Markswebb specialists shared the State of Small Business Russia 2023 study with #Nebrehnya, where they studied what digital services small and medium-sized businesses need to work, and how they choose them. Based on the results, the experts compiled a digitalization map – a coordinate system that shows how personal characteristics and the external environment affect the readiness of a business for digitalization. Consumer insights on the fintech market from Markswebb look like this: ???? The presence of a single supplier of financial products is the main request of the business, it is a way to reduce risk. ???? The requirements for online banking are directly related to the specifics of the business. It is important for banks to define their client portfolio. Understanding the activities of customers will give the bank the ability to offer digital solutions that meet the needs. ???? Business leaders often do not know that documents can be exchanged between different EDI services. In other cases, executives connect new services so as not to lose a client. Such conditions of cooperation are set by large companies, on whose orders small and medium-sized businesses depend. ???? Accounting and financial analysis services can be used by employees of non-financial departments, but this does not happen, since the interface looks complicated. ???? The retail business tries to minimize costs at the start on the complex connection of the cash register and acquiring, but spends more money on further use and gets a negative customer experience. @nebrexnya
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Forgot the numbers. The auditors finally found out why Rosstat forgot how to count “Gouging and indifference” – the slogan of Rosstat. In any case, it was while the department was headed by the current Ryazan governor Pavel Malkov. The territorial bodies of Rosstat are painting on the figures, the Accounts Chamber concluded. Judging by the auditors’ report available to “Accents”, one can trust the official statistics less and less. ???? Holes in statistics Almost a third of respondents scored on Rosstat and do not provide primary data. Although this is a direct obligation of absolutely all enterprises of any form of ownership. Last year alone, more than 1.7 million Russian legal entities spat on reporting. ???? Money apart Most often they refuse to provide Rosstat with information about finances … and innovations. Innovations, of course, are not something to brag about now under sanctions. A half-dead business prefers to hide financial statements from the state. ???? In hindsight, Rosstat is obliged to fine “refuseniks” by at least ₽20 thousand. However, statisticians show either humanism or indifference. And only a few “refuseniks” are punished. Business continues to ignore reporting with impunity. The new head of Rosstat, Igor Vasiliev, has already promised to better collect reports. True, when Vasiliev will correct Malkov’s legacy and restore confidence in Rosstat data is still unclear.
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Nabiullina shook out 284 billion rubles from the ex-heads of Binbank and Growth Bank Mikhail Shishkhanov and Alexander Lukin. The Central Bank won the arbitration court. Other heads of these banks, Alexei Farafontov and Kirill Lyubentsov, also acted as defendants in the lawsuit, but the court rejected the demands of the Central Bank against them. The Central Bank demanded to compensate for the losses that arose during the reorganization of Rost Bank, in which Binbank also took part back in 2014. But later, Binbank, which was one of the top 10 Russian banks, asked the Central Bank for reorganization. The reason was very controversial mergers and acquisitions. The Central Bank spent a lot of money on this reorganization, which is now demanding back. It is highly likely that we will still hear many high-profile cases involving Nabiullina and her organization: the Central Bank itself received a loss of 721 billion rubles last year. So why not go through the old sins and get into the pocket of the old sinners? Shishkhanov prudently went bankrupt in July. So the prospect of getting real money from him is doubtful for the Central Bank. @nebrexnya
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UnionPay from ATB Asia-Pacific Bank started issuing cards by international payment system UnionPay. You can issue it in rubles or yuan. Works in 150 countries of the world, including Russia. Of the features: every month ATB accrues cashback up to 7%, interest on the balance – 5%, you can withdraw up to a million rubles in cash.
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Immediate tax “help” A draft law has been submitted to the State Duma, which proposes to expedite the procedure for initiating a criminal case on tax crimes. Regional deputy Farid Mukhametshin proposes to give the Federal Tax Service additional powers to quickly transfer materials on tax crimes to the investigating authorities, regardless of the stage of tax administration. The state continues to play with business, changing their rules on the go. To continue the aggression in Ukraine, constant financial injections are needed. Fines are one of the quickest and relatively easy ways to “take” money from naive businessmen who assumed that doing business honestly might be the best strategy for surviving in Russia. The “pay first, argue later” scheme allows the regime to “nightmare” entrepreneurs with impunity. Challenging punishments where laws work only for the authorities is a long and often hopeless task.
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#There is an Opinion by Oleg Ogienko, Director of Government Relations at BitRiver, specifically for #Nebrekhni – about reducing the amount of energy consumption by miners by 49% in Russia: In 2022, electricity consumption for cryptocurrency mining, according to our estimates, amounted to 10.8-14.1 billion kWh, having decreased in comparison with the volume of consumption for these purposes in 2021 by 1.4-1.86. times. This was mainly influenced by the downward trend in the cryptocurrency market that has continued since December 2021, accompanied by a depreciation of the main liquid cryptocurrencies. In addition, the following contributed to the reduction in electricity consumption for mining in 2022: — geopolitical events — rising electricity prices — Ethereum’s transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. For the first half of this year, we estimate mining consumption at about 6.7 billion kWh. It should be noted that the growth in electricity consumption for this type of activity continues with the prospect of exceeding the level of 2022. Among the reasons: — preservation of Russia’s competitive advantages in mining due to relatively low electricity prices, the availability of free “green” and low-carbon energy facilities; — regulatory pressure on the crypto industry in certain countries of the world (USA, Europe); – rise in the price of electricity in the world; — tightening of fiscal policy in Western countries. According to the System Operator of the Unified Energy System of Russia (SO UES), electricity consumption in 2022 amounted to 1,106.3 billion kWh, respectively, the level of electricity consumption for mining in 2022 amounted to more than 1% of consumption in the country. This year we expect to exceed this figure. In the first half of 2023, Russia reached a share of the global hash rate of 13%, coming in second place after the United States. Now this place is saved. In 2021-2022, Russia’s share in mining fluctuated between 5-12%. In regions with low tariffs, the problem is mainly retail and other “gray” mining, which consumes electricity at tariffs for the population, disguises itself as other production, and does not properly formalize technological connection to power grids. Here, the adoption of systemic regulation of mining and the circulation of cryptocurrency in Russia, measures to prevent “gray” and “black” imports of computing equipment for mining will help. @nebrexnya