#Vectors of the Day The market background is close to neutral. While Asia continues to fall, the US declines marginally and the EU gains marginally. A growing commodity market adds a little positive to traders. Events that will affect the markets: ???? Now – pause, if all these statements are not the tricks of the CIPSO. ????The EU will provide assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 50 billion euros over the next 4 years. ????The State Duma adopted a law on the possibility of conscripted military service under the contract. So it was illegal before? ????The Russian Federation believes that July 18 will be the time for the completion of the grain deal. ????Demand for oil in China rose by 2.3% in January-May y/y. Demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2H 2023. Positive for Russian oilmen. ????The State Duma approved in the first reading the introduction of a single personal income tax rate of 13-15% for employees working remotely for Russian organizations in the Russian Federation and abroad. So far, this does not mean anything, because in Russian law-making practice, between the first and second readings, the law can turn around 180 degrees. SPB Exchange will launch Hong Kong ETFs for unqualified investors in the coming weeks. ????PJSC Evrotrans starts collecting applications for the purchase of shares before the IPO. ????Novatek expects net profit to decline by 30% in 2023 due to lower LNG prices. ????Shareholders of MTS approved dividend payments in the amount of 34.29 rubles per share. Profitability – 10%. Today: ????GOSA of Bashneft ????
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There is one intrigue in the issue of involving prisoners in labor, combat operations and other activities. Will the state decriminalize various crimes so that fewer working-age citizens end up in jail? Or vice versa, will he start jailing for any nonsense in order to get valuable biological resources from free citizens, as the authorities perceive them? Bonded labor is less efficient, but more manageable. And it is also interesting who will dispose of these biological resources. Someone agreed or is ready to agree on sending convicts to the same AvtoVAZ. And Sber has been practicing this since 2020. The Federal Penitentiary Service, under contracts with which convicts can be recruited, will become one of the most influential economic agents in the country in the current shortage of personnel. @nebrexnya
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#There is an Opinion Expert on the stock market of BCS World of Investments Evgeny Mironyuk especially for #Nebrekhni about why the futures market remains the only section of the Moscow Exchange where trading volume has not recovered to pre-crisis levels: This is probably due to two trends: 1. With an increase in the share of individual investors (with the departure of institutional and foreign investors). Their trading style is different, in most cases they buy classic investment instruments, stocks and bonds with their own money. Directly or as part of funds. According to the Moscow Exchange, in May, the share of individuals in the volume of trades in shares was 80.8%, in the volume of trades in bonds – 30.2%, on the spot currency market – 17.9%, on the derivatives market – 64.2%. Before the introduction of large-scale sanctions in the spring of 2022, the share of “experienced” market participants with large capitals was higher. They often hedge positions through derivatives and build complex strategies that combine classic investment instruments and futures/options 2. With the arrival of new clients who do not have sufficient knowledge to successfully trade derivatives. Moscow Exchange reports that the number of individuals with brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange in May 2023 increased by 496.3 thousand, to 25.56 million people, and the total number of open accounts to 43.34 million. futures and options on the Moscow Exchange for some currency pairs. @nebrexnya
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@nebrexnya experts especially for @kremlin_mother_expert TOP 5 market news ???? Foreign exchange market Bank of China, the fourth largest bank in the world, has restricted Russian bank customers’ transfers in yuan to EU, US, Swiss and UK banks. Transfers can only be made to beneficiary banks of the Bank of China group. One can talk for a long time about political reasons, the desire to please the United States before Blinken’s visit to China, China’s unwillingness to be under sanctions. But the fact remains that Russians have been cut off from another huge element of the payment infrastructure. And an organization the size of the Bank of China could do this only with the approval of the Chinese leadership. ???? The stock market The Bank of Russia is trying to invent a way to get the frozen assets of Russian investors. As planned by the Central Bank, the shares will be collected in pools, and then sold to foreign investors, receiving payments to type C accounts. Funds are collected on these accounts that residents of “unfriendly” countries cannot withdraw. If it works out, the success of the Central Bank will be resounding. ???? Commodity market Wholesale prices for gasoline in Russia have increased by 40-50% since the beginning of the year. The reason was the abolition of damper payments to oilmen. Since July, oil companies will not receive compensation from the budget when supplying fuel to the domestic market. This measure, among others, is aimed at reducing budget expenditures. Or more precisely, to shifting the budget hole into the pocket of the Russians. The increase in prices will inevitably flow into retail, so literally every resident of the Russian Federation will pay for saving the budget. ???? Cryptocurrency market The IMF intends to create a common platform for digital currencies of central banks. Digital money is also planned to be used for transactions between countries. The idea of the IMF is to make a platform that will ensure the interoperability of crypto assets. In addition to convenience, it is difficult to overestimate the symbolic significance of this gesture: it took five or six years for cryptocurrencies to migrate from the hard drives of individual IT enthusiasts to the system of international relations. ???? Stock Market Itself. No one is to blame for the acceleration of the third tier. Approximately such conclusions were reached by the Central Bank, having studied the mysterious growth of little-known companies on the stock exchange by tens or even hundreds of percent. According to the Central Bank, 140 thousand brokerage accounts randomly entered the shares of 34 different issuers at a random moment. No traces of coordinated campaigns could be found. The regulator hopes to put an end to such unfounded stories with the help of a discrete auction – stopping trading during sharp price jumps.
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There is nothing sensational in the “Rotenberg archives” for the Russian public. From the published data, it follows that they used secret offshore schemes to hide their property abroad, bypassed sanctions, and hid assets in closed-end investment funds through nominal values. The Russian audience is already accustomed to such schemes, and the very name of the brothers has long and firmly been associated with big money and corruption. Hardly anyone in Russia seriously expects that the security forces will come to the Rotenbergs with questions and generally begin to look for a corruption component in their affairs. For such security officials, a career will quickly end. But the Europeans have something to work on. Once the schemes are revealed, you can put your hands up to your elbows in them and wring out more fat pieces that belong to Russian oligarchs. The archive was compiled, among other things, on the basis of the leak of documents and letters from the email of the management company of Maxim Viktorov, who, according to the authors of the investigations, helped Vladimir Putin’s entourage bypass sanctions and invest in assets in Europe for years. The data array is huge, it contains more than 50 thousand documents, so new data will appear periodically. So far from the interesting: ????The Austrian house, where the alleged daughter of President Putin was often seen, was bought by a company that received 11 million euros from Wayblue Investments, presumably Arkady Rotenberg. Maria Vorontsova and her ex-civil husband Jorrit Faassen used a villa in the elite resort of Kitzbühel. After February 24, 2022, there was no trace of them in the villa. ????A connection has been discovered between the common-law wife of Arkady Rotenberg, Maria Borodunova, and RG-Development. The woman owned ZPIF Lontano, which controlled 80% of the developer. ????In Russia, Evocorp Managing Company LLC managed the assets of the Rotenberg brothers, re-registered as top-secret investment funds, which Moscow businessman Maxim Viktorov passed off as his own. In Russia, this is generally an open secret. ????Boris Rotenberg is married to a US citizen with a Ukrainian surname Karina Gapchuk. Patriotic. ???? European banks do not really comply with the sanctions. Banque Havilland Monaco allowed Rothenberg family transfers in 2017. Société Générale agreed to provide banking services to Boris Rotenberg, albeit with reservations that he would not keep any money related to his wife in the bank. These organizations are now likely to be visited by European investigators. However, the implications of releasing these data could be very far-reaching. At least now the EU knows what and where to look for. This means that they will have new targets for sanctions. In addition, companies that helped to circumvent sanctions will now think ten times before getting involved in such stories. After all, you never know where something will leak, and where it will then fly from. @nebrexnya
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Tinkoff Bank has launched transfers in rupees without limits on the amount to almost all banks in India. For the time being, individual clients must contact the support chat to make such a transfer. In the near future, the bank promises to add the ability to make transfers on its own. For legal entities, independent transfers in rupees are already open. For individual customers with an activated Tinkoff Premium and Tinkoff Private subscription, transfers in rupees are free. In other cases, the fixed commission will be 1500 rupees.
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#There is an Opinion by Tsifra Broker Analyst Daniil Bolotskikh especially for #Nonbrekhni about changing risk assessment methods in banks, switching to their own methods: In international practice, when calculating risk indicators for banks, it is customary to rely on Basel-3 provisions. The document was developed as a response to the 2008 crisis and establishes increased requirements for financial institutions to cover credit, interest rate and market risks. There are also national regulations that banks must comply with. The problem is that the rules are the same for everyone, and do not always take into account the specifics of the organization’s business, which can slow down development by creating excess reserves. Therefore, banks that have a large amount of data to assess their own risks depending on the characteristics tend to use advanced risk assessment methods. Such techniques can be much more effective, but the situation varies depending on the company and the quality of risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to talk about the effectiveness of our own methodology in each individual case, now we can only rely on the approval of the Bank of Russia. @nebrexnya
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Google in Russia was stolen. The bailiffs came and withdrew all the money from the accounts of the Russian “daughter”. At the end of 2021, the division had about 3 billion rubles in its account, and by the end of 2022, 375.5 million remained. Apparently, Google managed to withdraw most of the money. Over the past year, the Russian subsidiary of the company was subject to turnover fines totaling 29 billion rubles for various things – mainly the failure to remove content that the Russian authorities do not like. #Nonsense a year ago assumed that Google would not pay this money. Moreover, taking into account the rest of the claims, penalties and other things, the amount was astronomical, comparable to the capitalization of the entire Alphabet. But Russia, too, was unlikely to seriously expect to receive this money sometime. The purpose of all these fines is to create a total barrier to the operation of the service in Russia and its return to the Russian market. @nebrexnya
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The Ministry of Finance was praised. It just seemed that the department was producing an acceptable result in catastrophic external conditions, when officials decided to get into a dubious adventure. Siluanov’s office supported the idea of introducing a minimum retail price for beer and cider. In retail, drinks will rise in price by 5-10%. The bill was born in the bowels of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy and, according to the idea of the authors, will somehow help fight counterfeit alcohol. How the initiative will work is already clear. Legal drinks will become a little more expensive, and chatter, as they were sold on the sly, will continue to be sold. Well, not under the license, “Mr. Cider” was body-burned with methanol. It is not clear why this is the Ministry of Finance. Earn on excise duty? So it is fixed, 24 rubles per liter. Cut down three kopecks on VAT from their sale? It is also doubtful, somehow long and difficult. It’s more of a market shift. The Association of Producers of Beer, Malt and Drinks (APP; unites AB InBev Efes, Baltika and Heineken United Brewery) proposed to the Ministry of Finance to tighten control over the draft segment. Which is logical – their direct competitors. Another explanation is an attempt to regulate the market for draft drinks instead of completely banning it. Because the ban will destroy craft beer in Russia as a phenomenon — 70 percent of small breweries will die. And once again it will open the way for unlicensed low-cost airlines offering dazzling methanol-based cocktails. Another option should not be discounted – after any disaster, a reaction is necessary. And the State Duma has the same reaction to all irritants – to ban and regulate something somewhere. @nebrexnya
Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 06/21/2023
