Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 06/18/2023

In matters of building an “eastern economic bloc” one important detail is often ignored – in order to be blocked, two things are needed: ???? Mutual desire of several countries. ????Equality of opportunity and recognition of such equality by all parties. Simply put, a bloc is a community of several states with equal opportunities and influence. Any other constructions imply submission and someone’s dominance. Russia can try as much as it likes to create political counterbalances to Western countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. But only completely dependent states are obtained, as in the case of Syria – without Moscow, Assad will not sit for even a few months. And as it was in the days of the USSR, where the Eastern bloc fell apart immediately after the weakening of Moscow. We all saw the number of people willing to enter into equal partnership with Russia at SPIEF. The President of Algeria, who was forced to listen to a lecture about Bandera. And the President of the United Arab Emirates, who prudently escaped (perhaps he knew that he would be in the plenary). @nebrexnya
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Cold-blooded sheiks. How much money the UAE did not bring to the St. Petersburg Forum The UAE was an honored guest of the St. Petersburg Forum. Pragmatically: Russia under sanctions really needs Arab money. However, the UAE did not live up to high expectations – they found out “Accents” on the sidelines of the forum. ???????????????? The UAE delegation in St. Petersburg was headed not by the country’s president or prime minister, but by one of the emirs, Saud al-Qasimi. Together with him flew only two ministers – economy and culture. UAE President Mohammed al-Nahyan will still arrive in St. Petersburg – only the visit turned out to be unscheduled. Algeria, another Arab country, was initially represented personally by the president at the forum. He will close the forum together with Vladimir Putin. But the ties between Russia and the UAE are much stronger than with Algeria. ???????????????? The expected investment projects of the UAE were also not brought to Russia – only promises. Yes, what “generous”. They promised, for example, to become a hub for Russian goods and tourists. That is, to earn on transit – and not on direct investments in Russia. ???????????????? Russia has already invested $10 billion in the UAE. The figures were given by the President of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of the UAE, Abdullah al-Mazrui. And he called on Russia to invest even more actively in the Emirati economy. And not vice versa. The UAE, by the way, is one of the few countries in the world with ultra-low income tax. To attract foreign investors. ???????????????? The Russian-Emirates trade turnover over the past 5 years has grown almost 6 times. Last year, it reached the historical level of $9 billion. Now the UAE is one of the ten largest Russian export markets. Cool, right? True, the UAE perceives Russia as a source of raw materials: they buy oil products, precious stones, and ferrous metals. In the opposite direction, there are more marginal goods – power equipment, products of the chemical industry and the food industry. The UAE, in general, is not a friend, but a cynical business partner. It will be necessary – he will squeeze all the juice out of Russia without hesitation.
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Everything is relative. The organizers of SPIEF 2023 happily reported that agreements worth 3.86 trillion rubles were signed at the forum. This is presented as a big win. The problem is that a year ago, when stability disappeared as a phenomenon, few people understood the future of the conflict and Russia itself, the sanctions were only taking on some foreseeable shape – against such a turbulent background, agreements were signed for 5.6 trillion rubles. In general, the amount in 2023 is comparable to 2021. At that time, 3.86 trillion rubles were also announced. The record belongs to 2013. At that time, agreements worth 9.6 trillion rubles were signed at the forum. A significant share in this figure is the $270 billion deal between Rosneft and China. After 2014, the volume of agreements began to fall sharply – Russia’s smooth disconnection from the world economy began even then. @nebrexnya
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​#There is an Opinion Vera Kononova, Deputy Head of the Analytical Research Department of the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies, on the proposals of the Ministry of Finance and NAUFOR on early withdrawal of funds from IIS-3 accounts: The possibility of early withdrawal of funds from IIS-3 accounts is one of the most important issues, the solution of which will depend attractiveness of a new type of investment account for the population. The fact is that even the 3-year period set for IIS-1 and 2 is perceived by many as too long, and this has already become one of the factors hindering the opening of such accounts for the population with an average income. However, in the case of IIS-3, where the minimum holding period is expected to start at 5 years and then gradually increase to 10 years, this uncertainty factor will become even more significant, and may repel many potential investors from this instrument. In this regard, the MoF proposal to allow withdrawals from IIS only in cases where expensive treatment is needed, suggests that the MoF is underestimating the risk of IIS-3 becoming another tool with a very narrow coverage. Already now, on forums where a new IIS is being discussed, the following argument is often heard: I don’t know what will happen in 5-10 years, what if I need this money? At the same time, the IIS mechanism does not contain any weighty advantages that would outweigh these risks. For example, unlike bank deposits, to which the majority of the population is accustomed, income from IIA depends on the economic situation and is probabilistic, and there are no guarantees that savings will be safe. At the same time, the tax deductions provided in the event of early withdrawal of funds will still have to be returned. As for the list of expensive medical services that may become the basis for withdrawing funds from IIS-3, it can be assumed that the current list of expensive types of treatment, which is used to calculate social deductions for personal income tax, can be used for this purpose. This list contains 27 types of treatment, mainly related to serious diseases that really require expensive medical intervention. However, for most IIA holders, taking this approach would mean that IIA withdrawals can only be made in very rare cases. It seems that the development of IIS requires a certain balance between ensuring long-term investments (when money is still invested for long periods and cannot be withdrawn at any time) and providing more opportunities for account holders to use their funds if they are urgently needed. . And in this regard, in order to attract wider sections of the population to savings through IIA, of course, it is necessary to expand the list of situations in which the IIA holder can use his funds without terminating the contract. It must be said that this is not the first time NAUFOR has come up with such proposals. For example, at the end of 2020, when the discussion of IIA-3 began, NAUFOR proposed to provide opportunities for withdrawing funds from IIA not only in connection with tuition fees and the purchase of housing, but also in situations where the IIA holder needs to pay for the care of elderly relatives or people with disabilities . Along with this, it was proposed to allow accepting amounts held on the IIA as collateral for loans, as well as to carry out a temporary partial withdrawal of up to half of the IIA funds (for a period of up to 6 months). It seems that these proposals should be considered now. In addition to expanding the list of life situations in which withdrawal of funds is permissible, special attention should be paid to the possibility of pledging IIS as collateral, since in some cases this may reduce the need to withdraw funds. @nebrexnya
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The third largest bank in China, Bank of China, has banned Russian users from transferring money in yuan to banks in the European Union, the United States, Great Britain and Switzerland. Thus, the Chinese currency, for which there were so many hopes, can turn into an analogue of the Indian rupee – a financial suitcase without a handle. The bank clearly made this decision at the suggestion of the EU and the US due to increased sanctions pressure. Why did Blinken decide to go to Xi? China and the US understand each other very well.
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The woman in dark glasses who behaved so brazenly and cheekily in the presence of Putin during the performance of the Russian anthem at the raising of the flag in Lakhta is Elena Ilyukhina. According to a source of the Cheka-OGPU, Elena Ilyukhina is not just the deputy general director of PJSC Gazprom Neft for corporate and legal issues, but the closest friend of the second wife of Alexei Miller, the former secretary of Vladimir Putin Marina Yentaltseva, therefore it is tacitly believed that she is largely in charge the work of the oil company Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of Gazprom, and not General Director Alexander Dyukov. From 2001 to 2007 Elena Ilyukhina worked as Deputy General Director of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rublevo-Uspensky LOK of the Office of the President, from where, according to available information, she was dismissed in connection with a corruption scandal. in 2008 Marina Yentaltseva asked her husband Alexei Miller to appoint her friend to a high management position at Gazprom Neft, and subsequently to appoint Elena to manage Gazprom’s high-budget landmark projects, for example, manage St. Petersburg football, build the most expensive skyscraper in the world – the Lakhta Center, which has already for many years he could not be put into operation, to manage work at the Gazprom Arena stadium. Currently, in addition to the position of Deputy General Director of Gazprom Neft, Elena Ilyukhina is the General Director of Lakhta Center Multifunctional Complex JSC, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Zenit Football Club, Head of the St. Petersburg Football Federation. According to Zenit fans “, Elena herself did not hold the ball in her hands and knows almost nothing about football, which is doubly insulting. All construction projects that Elena Ilyukhina is involved in become the most expensive in the world, because Gazprom does not spare money for Elena Ilyukhina. Following the Lakhta skyscraper center” with a height of 462 meters, Elena reported to the President on the start of projects for the construction of two more skyscrapers, one of which is 703 meters high (150 floors), which is why gas supply tariffs are unaffordable for the population. And now the family of Alexei Miller is already promoting Elena to A couple of months ago, Elena Ilyukhina was included in the UK sanctions list, apparently she has a lot of real estate there. It is also known that the son of Elena Ilyukhina lived in the UK. It is believed that Elena Ilyukhina is one of the “pockets” of the Alexei Miller family.

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​Top regional events All the money flows to Moscow, but is “made” in the regions. My colleagues and I have prepared a selection of iconic regional events from the new reality this week. Coala plunges into the chton along with the Governor of Kuzbass Tsivilev at SPIEF-2023. He recalled that the transport capacity for coal miners at the Eastern range is still not enough. Decisions were signed on the reconstruction of BAM-1, BAM-2. And this is all worth it, because it is impossible to transport coal. Tsivilev recalled that exports to the East have not been growing for the past six years. And with the West, everything is not so smooth now – this is not about an embargo, but about a medium-term drop in the profitability of the direction. The Rotunda watches over the fate of the Cross prison. Petersburg officials signed agreements on its transformation into an art cluster. Before that, Akhmatova’s commemorative plaque disappeared from there. Most likely, the tablet was stolen, but no one contacted the police on the fact of the theft – no one is looking for the lost board. kavkaz_leakbez complains that there is no water again in Ingushetia. But there is a new working group to provide the population with water. There is no drinking water in Ingushetia every summer. And every summer the authorities of the region find something to say. Or they don’t find it, but they still go out to the people and wave their hands. Federal money for the reconstruction of the water canal, local water supply and various projects to reduce tensions with water from year to year arrive colossal. But, like water, they leak. The accents of the South warn that the Kuzhorsky reserve in Adygea will be buried under tons of garbage. A landfill for 3 million tons will be built. The land was provided to the investor according to a simplified scheme, the head of Adygea, Murat Kumpilov, proudly declared. And how can the governor not be proud if the project will bring him almost 1 billion rubles, the authors of the channel ask? The Crimean Canal noticed that the Knyaz Vladimir cruise liner left Sevastopol Bay before the end of the year. This season, despite the May promise of Deputy Minister of Transport Kostyuk to launch communication between the Crimean Peninsula and the resorts of the Krasnodar Territory, the ship will only run from Sochi to Sukhum and back. The cost of one cabin for four nights (two of which are parking in the port of Abkhazia) is from 75,000 to 252,000 rubles. @nebrexnya