#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Asia and the EU are growing well, the US is spinning at zero. The commodity market is multidirectional, gold is declining by almost 1%, gas – by about 0.5%. Events that will affect the markets: ????A missile launched from Ukraine was shot down over Feodosia. How she got into such a deep rear is a mystery. ????China simulated a strike on Taiwan. The US is ready to send troops there if China launches an invasion. French President Macron said that Europe must avoid being drawn into this conflict. ????Anthony Blinken ruled out the possibility of negotiations on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. In his opinion, Russia is not yet ready for constructive negotiations. ????The leak of secret US documents on Ukraine to the network caused a panic in the Pentagon leadership, according to a number of sources. Another position is that the leak is a deliberate fake in preparation for a counteroffensive. At first glance, there is not much sensitive data in the documents themselves; the very fact of a leak can cause Americans to be alarmed. ????The White House is considering taking action against Kaspersky Lab. ????RusHydro does not plan to consider the issue of paying dividends for 2022 at the annual meeting of shareholders ????Chinese search engine Baidu filed a lawsuit against Apple and app developers because of fake copies of its Ernie Ernie bot Today: ????AFK Sistema to publish IFRS results for 4Q 2022 ??????Sberbank to publish 3M 2023 financial results @nebrexnya
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And the option of “not banning anyone” is not even considered? An important rule in decision making is information redundancy. He listened to a dozen different opinions that contradict each other, made his own. If you close any part of the agenda, the picture of the world will begin to distort. So it was at the beginning of the conflict, when only people like Kedmi could legally speak out, in whose arms the Odessans would strangle the Russian army in their arms. Those who warned that a brutal massacre awaited the Russian army quickly added to the list of foreign agents and emigrants. But even now, an alternative point of view is prohibited. If there is no reinforced concrete evidence, it is called a fake. If there is – discredit. In controversial cases, you can simply declare a person a foreign agent. So the ban on forecasts for pro-government political scientists is needed only so that they get into a puddle less often. The country did not “lose the information-psychological war” because of Kedmi and others like him. Because of them, she plunged into an adventure from which there is no good way out. @nebrexnya
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Egypt concluded a grain deal with Russia on the additional purchase of 600,000 tons of wheat. In total, in the current agricultural year, the country in the Middle East will contract 7.4 million tons of our wheat. It would seem that great news for the domestic economy. Here they are – new deals and opportunities. But there is a nuance. The price at which the grain will go to Egypt is about half as much as it was a year ago – 293 dollars per ton instead of 435 euros. The Kremlin continues to buy friends. China will get Russia’s natural resources, Turkey will get gas at an impressive discount (and the opportunity to replenish EU reserves), Egypt will get cheap wheat, and Belarus will get tactical nuclear weapons. The Kremlin lives by the principle of don’t have a hundred rubles… True, we definitely don’t have enough money for a hundred friends.
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Another “knife in the back” from Erdogan does not mean anything yet. Claims that Turkey has agreed to stop the transit of Western goods subject to sanctions to Russia after pressure from the G7 is not that fiction, but rather political news noise. The head of the US State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, James O’Brien, told Reuters that Turkish officials have made it “very clear” to various governments and agencies that they have imposed a ban on the re-export of sanctioned goods to Russia. “Very clear” is like winking twice and putting 39 irons on the windowsill? In March, Türkiye already blocked transit goods to Russia. This could be a warning for the Russian Federation and a signal for Washington, it could be an assessment of its capabilities to block goods. Or maybe a banana is just a banana and the problem really was purely technical. Guessing is pointless. Erdogan faces difficult elections. They will be on May 14th. No far-reaching decisions, such as restricting parallel imports for Russia, will most likely be made until this day. But what happens after that is already interesting. Erdogan’s rival Kemal Kılıçdaroglu has already been registered as a pro-American politician. But in fact, the Americans are simply negotiating with him, and Russia is ignoring him. Moscow is banking on Erdogan. But how long ago did he become a pro-Russian politician? Both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu will act in the interests of Turkey, which faces serious challenges. Erdogan with his idea of a “Turkic world” is much more dangerous for the Russian Federation, because his interests extend deep into Russia. Kılıçdaroğlu’s policy is likely to be more restrained. And then the question is what Russia can offer him. The benefit from parallel imports is not so high compared to the sanctions risks. The trade turnover between Russia and Turkey doubled from January to September 2022 and reached $47 billion (at the same time, the FCS no longer publishes official statistics). The potential damage from the withdrawal of Western companies from Turkey is estimated at $800 billion. So Washington has something to put pressure on. And Russia will have to offer something very significant just to keep relations at the same level. @nebrexnya
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BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov specifically for #Nebrekhni – about the position of the Ministry of Finance on the return of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings for exporters: The Ministry of Finance probably sees the current volumes of currency in the financial system and is aware that the return of the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings for the ruble is not enough what they decide. But this will definitely complicate the work of the exporting companies themselves. It can be assumed that such thoughts arose in the community after the ruble updated its lows for 12 months last week. At present, the fall of the ruble exchange rate has stopped, the dollar can be consolidated in the range of 80-82 rubles. The ruble will return to strengthening when the inflow of currency stabilizes. @nebrexnya
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Roscosmos is looking at the US. Whether with hope, or with envy. Andrey Elchaninov, First Deputy General Director of Roscosmos, said that the state corporation is ready to expand cooperation with NASA. And in general, “space is out of politics.” At this phrase, NATO intelligence satellites nodded vigorously with their lenses and agreed that they were not at all interested in squabbles between Republicans and Democrats, or even the arrest of Trump. They generally watch the other hemisphere. We are told from high state tribunes that we are not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO led by the United States. How to understand in this case the statements of figures from Roskosmos about the expansion of cooperation no matter what? And what could have happened in the history of the Great Patriotic War if in 1941 a representative of the headquarters of the Supreme High Command had declared that “any wars end with negotiations, and therefore it is necessary to continue cooperation with Wernher von Braun and, in general, with fascist Germany in order to create missiles and nuclear weapons”? And in essence, this is exactly what Roskosmos is calling for. But in general, Yelchanov knows what he is talking about. The tops of Roskosmos are really interested in expanding cooperation with NASA (not to be confused with NATO. Although …). In times of mutually beneficial fruitful cooperation, mutual benefit was measured in billions of rubles. 40-50 billion rubles a year, which for the businessman himself from the dashing 90s can mean a personal income of up to 5 billion rubles a year. In addition, Roskosmos will not be forgiven if something happens to the astronauts in orbit. And they are locked on the ISS and cannot leave it in case of emergency. Because vile meteorites constantly break through the contours of the thermal control system of ships, making them unusable. By a strange coincidence, this began to happen after the change of leadership throughout the vertical. Another important thesis that Yelchaninov outlined: “private business has become the number one priority of the state corporation.” This generally causes confusion among a significant part of Roscosmos employees who do not understand how private business can be allowed into the strategic defense industry. But here we are not talking about treason, but rather about business: this priority made it possible to give Roscosmos orders out of competition to firms affiliated with the sons of the head of the state corporation, Yuri Borisov. But now it’s clear why Rogozin’s resignation happened – it actually happened immediately after he completely blocked cooperation with NASA and ESA, and also refused to launch OneWeb satellites using Russian rockets. And by the way. Soon April 12, Cosmonautics Day. And where is Borisov himself, why did he send his deputy to give pre-holiday interviews instead of himself? Perhaps the head of Roskosmos is afraid that he will be asked about the drones, for which he was responsible in 2011-2022 as deputy prime minister and curator, including in this industry, and which the troops now really need. In general, there are no drones, there is no Borisov, and the leadership of Roskosmos keeps looking to the West. An interesting picture. @nebrexnya
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Aeroflot, due to sanctions, sent its aircraft to Iran for repairs for the first time in history. On April 5, an Airbus A330-300 liner flew to Tehran, where the aircraft will be serviced by specialists from the largest Iranian carrier Mahan Air. The Russian airline assured that the service there is at a high level.
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Evgeny Kalyanov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, especially for #Nebrekhni – about the yuan deficit in Russian banks: Since the spring of 2022, trading in the ruble and yuan has increased eighty times and with such sharp changes, failures naturally occur in the form of a lack of yuan liquidity in RF. Against the backdrop of high demand for the Chinese currency, its exchange rate against the ruble is also growing, and at a pace that outpaces the growth of the dollar and the euro against the ruble. Yuan, in addition to the corporate sector that makes payments in it for Chinese goods, is also strongly needed by the state. Russia is moving away from holding gold and foreign exchange reserves in Western currencies. From 2023, the share of the Chinese yuan in the NWF should reach 60%, and gold – 40%. The reason for the jump in demand for the Chinese currency in April could be the statement of the Ministry of Finance that from April 7, sales of yuan from the NWF under the budget rule are reduced by 38%. The liquidity situation for the yuan may eventually stabilize. In the first 2 months of 2023, exports from Russia exceed imports, and if this trend continues, the inflow of the yuan will increase. The issue of lack of liquidity for banks can be resolved through its provision through swap lines between the Central Banks of the Russian Federation and China. Swap lines are agreements between two central banks to exchange currencies. They allow one central bank to receive foreign currency from another bank that issues it and then distribute it to commercial banks in their country. Through the swap line, the Bank of Russia will be able to exchange Chinese currency for an equivalent amount in rubles, which it can then distribute among commercial banks in the country. @nebrexnya
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Results and forecasts of the Russian stock market #Investfactor The Moscow Exchange Index continued its vigorous growth this week. Paradoxically, but the companies against which the cheap ruble works against are going up: Yandex, Tinkoff and Aeroflot. On the contrary, exporters are getting cheaper: Surgutneftegaz, NLMK, Severstal. Apparently, metallurgists are no longer happy with anything. Corporate events: #AFLT Aeroflot sent its aircraft to Iran for repairs for the first time in history. It is difficult to call this news good, but at the very least Iran flies, being under sanctions for 40 years. Aeroflot is learning. #WUSH While Paris bans electric scooters in a manipulative city referendum, the season kicks off in Moscow. So Whoosh kicksharing is on the rise. The increase in the price of carsharing and taxis works for him. Against – moving most of the hipsters to Georgia. Whose took, we will find out at the end of the season. #RKKE Corporation “Energia” gives an evening of space puns – a rocket flies into space. There is no significant news on it, except for a controversial interview with Andrey Elchaninov, deputy head of Roscosmos. According to technical analysis, it looks like a suborbital flight along a parabolic trajectory. In other words, it will fall off. #SBER Continues to grow. Investors are waiting for tomorrow’s report for the first three months of 2022. It is growing on good volume, so it may grow even more after the report. Ideally, it will reach 230-235 in the near future, but this is the most optimistic scenario. What to look out for this week? ???? AFK Sistema to publish IFRS financial results for 4Q 2022 ???? Sberbank to publish financial results under RAS for 3M 2023 ???? Meeting of the Board of Directors of Sovcomflot. Is there a dividend for 2022 on the agenda???? Dividend cutoff of Positive Group for Q1 2023 ???? Meeting of the Board of Directors of EL5-Energo. Is there a dividend for 2022 on the agenda???? OKEY to release 2022 IFRS financial results ???? Last day to enter the register of shareholders eligible to receive Tattelecom dividends for 2022 ???? Rosseti Lenenergo to publish IFRS financial results for 2022 ???? Annual general meeting of Beluga Group shareholders. There is a question of dividends on the agenda @nebrexnya