Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 02/20/2023

And it is high time for Cuba to update the fleet. And the way they drove the Soviet Zhiguli, they drive. AvtoVAZ does not have to choose, it will have to be exported wherever they let it go. Moreover, the auto concern was engaged in this back in Soviet times, there is experience. Another question is what to export? The main effect of sanctions and the destruction of supply chains is that everything becomes worse and more expensive. Including VAZ cars. They will have to compete in the global market, where all the rest of the connections are established and work. The Togliatti Automobile Plant has not shone with exports in recent years. In 2022, 17.2 thousand cars went abroad, in 2021 – 35.8 thousand cars, in 2020 – 41 thousand. That is, exports were declining even without sanctions, and plans to sell 20 thousand cars abroad are clearly too optimistic. @nebrexnya
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The state spends on pensioners as much as a good owner on a dog. Spending on pets in Russia caught up with the income of pensioners. Dogs have been hit the hardest by inflation – veterinarians note a rise in the price of medicines for animals up to 300%, with the departure of Western brands, food has become more expensive. As a result, the maintenance of a medium-sized dog will cost 7-10 thousand rubles a month, a large one will cost twice as much, 14-20 thousand. The average pension in 2022 was 18,984 rubles. This year it should amount to 22,174 rubles, if it is not sucked into the black hole of the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, pensions differ greatly from region to region. In the poorest subjects of the federation, such as Ingushetia and Crimea, it is 15 and 16 thousand, respectively. In the richer, like the Nenets Autonomous Okrug – 27 thousand rubles. That is, a Naryan-Mar pensioner can afford to eat better than some Alabai, and a Crimean will have to compete with a Yorkie. This is what the devaluation of human life looks like. Not in the liberal-humanitarian discourse, but in rubles. @nebrexnya
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It is not necessary to repay the loan debt before receiving payments from the DIA in the event of a bank failure. A new procedure for settlements with the DIA is being prepared. Now you can offset the insurance payment and the loan in the same bank. How the mechanism will work and to whom it will help, experts from the National Research University Higher School of Economics (NRU) told us especially for #Nebrekhni.
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The cancellation by the Chinese authorities of restrictions on leaving the country has not yet led to a noticeable increase in the flow of tourists to Russia. Chinese tourists are ready to go to Russia, but after the pandemic, visa prices have tripled to 1,450 yuan (more than $200). In addition, to obtain a visa, you need the original invitation from the host, which is sent by mail, which takes time. In 2000, Russia and China signed an agreement on visa-free travel for tourist groups. Entry was carried out according to the lists, which were assured by tour operators. In January 2021, the document was suspended due to the pandemic and has not yet been renewed.
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Something doesn’t add up. At the end of 2022, the number of unemployed people amounted to 564 thousand people. This is 30% less than in 2021, when 777 thousand were registered. At the same time, the average job search time increased to 4.5 months. It’s long. The unspoken rule of personal finance is to count on an airbag for six months, this is usually enough for rest, and for finding a new job, and there should still be a margin. It turns out that unemployment is falling, but finding a job is becoming more difficult. Inconsistency. In fact, these figures simply scream about the growth of hidden unemployment, when people seem to be employed, but are on vacation at their own expense or in idle time. There are about 4.6 million of them, an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. @nebrexnya
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​#Results of the Week The main events of the outgoing week according to #Nonbrekhni: Business will be dispossessed. The government expects to collect about 300 billion rubles of “voluntary” contributions from large enterprises to help the Motherland. And then many of the results of last year turned out to be good, we must share. Not Yevtushenkov. IKEA assets were bought after all. Four industrial sites will eventually go to the manufacturer of kitchen worktops and facades Slotex and the infamous lumber manufacturer Luzales. What kind of companies are these and how did AFK Sistema get out of the race? The peacemaker didn’t work. Ukraine squeezed $235 million from Deripaska. For this amount, the local court nationalized the assets belonging to the oligarch. It’s better not to fly. Low-cost airline Pobeda showed record profits for the entire time of its existence. And this is in a market environment that barely allows it to exist. “Victory” was simply overfed with subsidies. For what? Last year, 28 new shopping centers opened in Russia. Their total area suitable for potential tenants is 321.3 thousand square meters. meters. This is less than in 2021 by 47% and lower than in 2020 by 64%. And in general the minimum volume for the last 20 years. Again. Elvira Nabiullina threatens to legally ban subsidized mortgage programs from developers. The Central Bank is unhappy with the fact that banks and developers are manipulating buyers. The apartment is being sold with a mortgage at a very attractive rate, but at an exorbitant price. The Central Bank tried to defeat this phenomenon by banning such lending programs, but developers and banks simply renamed it cashback. @nebrexnya
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The US is starting to put pressure on the Austrian Raiffeisen Bank because of its Russian-related business. The bankers, apparently, were not actively winding up the Russian branch, and they were also making excellent money on it – over the past year they increased the revenue of the Russian branch five times. The US Treasury is checking the bank’s transactions related to Russia, as well as information about its work in the Donbass, Ukraine and Syria. Raiffeisen insists that he is complying with the sanctions. At the same time, business in Russia is slowly but significantly declining. Raiffeisen Bank International has limited Russian banks in foreign currency payments. But many other banks have ceased correspondent relations with Russia altogether. So Raiffeisen still remains one of the few channels for transferring money abroad. But it also seems to be closed. In general, an interesting situation. You can’t make a lot of money these days. Either the US Treasury, or Belousov and Siluanov will come to you. @nebrexnya
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The confrontation between the Kalashnikov concern and the baths in Izhevsk is increasingly reminiscent of a cross between a raider seizure and a holy war. Defenders from Zala Aero (part of the concern) want to take control of the Italmas shopping center in the residential area of ​​Izhekvsk and deploy the production of Lancet drones there. All the tenants have already moved out, but they don’t want baths – there is a whole complex with swimming pools, you can’t load it on a gazelle. And the bathhouses are squeezed out as best they can – they close the entrances to the shopping center, forcing everyone to go through the inspection at the service entrance (there is a secure facility now), expel customers from the bathhouse in the cold “due to a training alarm.” It is not entirely clear why this is for Kalashnikov himself. The building is designed specifically as a shopping and entertainment center, not an industrial site, the scandal with the bath hits the reputation, and the locals are strongly against the fact that kamikaze drones are assembled in their yard. The only convincing explanation for #Nebrekhni is the personal revenge of the head of Zala Aero for the fact that defense enterprises were closed in the 90s. @nebrexnya
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​#NebrehnyaLearned #DnoNedeli Carsharing Delimobil has found a new way to shoe customers, #Nebrekhne learned from a source close to the company. The scheme is based on intercity travel. Car sharing regularly has a need to move cars from city to city. To do this, they resort to the help of customers, offering them a free ride in exchange for the services of a driver. Delimobil was among the first to come up with the idea of ​​taking money for it. Driving a car from Moscow to St. Petersburg or back costs 3-5 thousand rubles. But recently, cars at a reduced price began to appear on the map of St. Petersburg – about 1.5 thousand. That’s just the tariff has its own “asterisk”. The trip is given 12 hours, after which the counter for overspending is turned on. And if usually a minute of such overspending costs 3-5 rubles, then on special tariffs – 40 (forty). Simply put, if you get stuck in a traffic jam at the exit or entrance, an extra hour will cost 2,400 rubles. Not to mention the fact that many customers take Delimobil for intercity trips with the expectation of leaving in the evening and spending the night on the way, or at least a stopover. And an 8-hour sleep will cost 19,200 rubles. Moreover, to find this condition, you need to go to a special menu and familiarize yourself with the tariff. 12 hours is enough time to drive to Moscow along the old highway without stopping. But if you overlook the draconian overspending, then inattention will cost a pretty penny. This is the calculation. @nebrexnya
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The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced another increase in export duties on wheat from Russia. From February 22, the duty rate will increase from 4653.5 rubles. up to 5177.2 rubles. per ton. The duty on barley will increase from 3209.1 rubles. up to 3717 rubles, for corn – from 1670 rubles. up to 2199.7 rubles. per ton. The duties were calculated based on indicative prices: $304.8 per ton of wheat ($306.2 a week earlier), $261.1 – for barley ($261.1), $231.6 – for corn ($230). The increase in new duties will affect grain producers, who are losing revenue and are forced to reduce sown areas and save on fertilizers. Officials have found a wonderful way to replenish the budget at the expense of farmers. The once announced temporary initiative has turned into a big yoke around the neck of the Russian peasant. Sometimes it seems that the current initiatives of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia are aimed not at raising the village, but rather at its destruction. The Russian Grain Union (RGU) in 2022 appealed to the government with a request to “urgently and completely” waive export duties on grain, but apparently this request went unheeded.
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Only Slavs! Soon such signs will appear on the doors of fact foods. Migrants from neighboring countries are no longer wanted to be hired there. The problem is in the new immigration legislation. Previously, migrants could stay in Russia for 90 days within six months without a visa. It turned out quite a watch – he came for three months, then spent three months at home, then – on a new circle. Now they plan to increase the term to a year. And you won’t go to work. In fact, the restrictions do not apply to migrants who are going to work legally, under a patent. To what extent employers comply with migration laws, we will soon find out – if non-Slavic persons suddenly disappear in the organization, then illegal immigrants used to work there. The main thing in this wonderful cognitive process is not to be left without taxis, delivery and services as such. @nebrexnya
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The states have found several more contenders for secondary sanctions. It turned out that Prigozhin’s convicts receive commercial UAVs from China through Russian distributors. The drones are manufactured by Da-Jiang Innovations Science & Technology Co. (DJI), one of the most popular models – Phantom – costs about $1-1.5 thousand. In the mid-1910s, DJI drones began to be sold in Apple branded stores, and UAV control applications appeared in the App Store. You can still purchase the DJI Mini 2 Fly More Combo on the official Apple website for $599.95. In the Russian Federation, DJI drones and spare parts for them are freely sold on Wildberries – the description says that the drones are supplied through an official distributor, they are equipped with a modern camera from the Swedish manufacturer Hasselblad. Some of the DJI drones were received by the RF Armed Forces from the UAE, having paid for delivery through the sub-sanctioned Sberbank, and another part, disassembled, was delivered through the EU countries. The US appears to have traced the supply chain following the arrest in the Netherlands in September of Russian Dmitry Kudryavtsev, who is suspected of exporting goods to Russia in circumvention of international export controls through his company Woerd-Tech BV. Only this company shipped goods worth $270,000 to the Russian Federation. Considering that the Pentagon strongly dislikes China’s activity in this situation, it is unlikely that it will not try to close loopholes for DJI. And, we recall, Russia does not produce its own drones, for which special thanks to the head of Rostec, Sergey Chemezov. Someday his “work” will be discussed in forensic textbooks.
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​Top regional events All the money flows to Moscow, but is “made” in the regions. Our partners and I have prepared a selection of iconic regional events from the new reality this week. The Rotunda counts the seized property of the head of the Vasileostrovsky district of St. Petersburg, Eduard Ilyin (the official himself was charged with a bribe of 5 million, but managed to escape). Ilyin has two apartments – on Ho Chi Minh Street and Lanskoe Highway. The wife found “Mercedes ML50” and an apartment on Poltava street. My son has a BMW X5. My sister has two apartments in Moscow, a Suzuki Grand Vitara and a house near a lake in Toksovo. Another apartment, where, according to investigators, the official lived, is located on Vasilevsky Island and costs about 55 million rubles. kavkaz_leakbez wonders how the amount of modernization of the local plant “Chechencement” has tripled, up to 23 billion rubles. Back in the summer, they talked about 8.7 billion rubles, the figure was approved by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin. But after the visit of the deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Sergei Nazarov, to Chechnya, they agreed on new amounts. The plant is run by a certain Khamzat Kadyrov. The case for Kurai is alarmed by Ramzan Kadyrov’s plans to create his own army (more precisely, a private military company). “The governor with his army … smelled of feudalism,” the authors of the channel conclude. Shaw again? rejoices at lower prices in the Crimean sanatoriums. Rest will cost an average of 7,100 rubles for two per day, including accommodation, meals and medical procedures. True, only in the offseason. The Near East offers news as if from another life. Pope Francis became the godfather for the animal as part of the Leopard Keepers program. The pontiff suggested the name Martin Fierro, this is a mythical literary character of Argentina. @nebrexnya
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#Morningnonsense The optimal profit in 2021-2022 is 999 million rubles. Whoever earns more is out of luck. The authorities consider a one-time contribution from such companies, which can be entered into the Tax Code as a one-time fee. How much to collect – have not yet decided. This is the same “voluntary contribution” with which Siluanov and Belousov want to attract 300 billion rubles to the budget. It is interesting how the criteria for “voluntariness” have changed – now it is not about the desire of each particular company, but about “consolidated consent” from key business associations. Do you mind additional tax on your business? – Yes, I don’t mind. – No, I don’t mind. @nebrexnya
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​#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral: Asia is growing slightly, the US and EU indices are without pronounced dynamics. The commodity market is multidirectional, looking upwards. Oil grows by 0.5%, gas decreases by 2.7%. News to Affect Markets: The Joe Biden administration is discussing new sanctions against Russia that target key industries. They will affect the energy sector and the military-industrial complex. Britain will double the supply of weapons to Kyiv. In the near future, the UK will supply Kyiv with as much military equipment as in the whole of 2022, including long-range ammunition and air defense systems. China has announced that it has successfully overcome the pandemic and is ready to resume contacts around the world. Iran has enriched uranium to the level needed to build a bomb. IAEA nuclear inspectors in Iran have found enriched uranium with a purity of 84%. Ukraine has imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange. Ukrainian sanctions are often followed by European and American ones, investors should be careful. The authorities of the Russian Federation and Yakutia are going to extend the ALROSA shareholder agreement, which expires in 2023, for 5 years on the same terms. Today: Report of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. @nebrexnya
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The situation with microloans is becoming more and more alarming. The debt burden of the population is growing, even on February 14, many noted through MFIs. These figures help to understand the real scale of unemployment, which, as we remember, is allegedly at an all-time low. First of all, those who cannot confirm their income resort to microloans. And a vacation at your own expense is just that case. The question is how will they repay their debts if economic growth does not start in the foreseeable future? @nebrexnya
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@nebrexnya experts especially for @kremlin_mother_expert TOP 5 market news ???? Currency market. The Central Bank does not plan to ease foreign exchange restrictions from March 9. This means that it will still be impossible to withdraw cash dollars from accounts. The problem is that cash dollars and euros still cannot enter Russia in adequate amounts. There is simply nowhere to take them to give out. ???? Stock market. The Moscow Exchange index fell during the week, losing about 4.5%. There are several pressure factors. An analysis of the charts shows that investors got carried away and overbought Russian securities, and the market is relieving tension. But there is also a negative news background – the 10th package of EU sanctions and the President’s message to the Federal Assembly. ???? Stock market. The American market is just waiting for a decline. Shares rose very steadily, but most international institutions believe that this is not for long. In particular, Bank of America believes that even if the recession comes later, it will still come. The Fed will continue to raise rates, and the S&P 500 index will drop significantly in early March. ???? Commodity market. An interesting observation. Oil is usually valued in US dollars, but they also have their own value, which changes like any money. And if you recalculate the price of oil in grams of gold, it turns out that it is now very cheap – half as much as in the 50s and 2.5 times cheaper than in the 70s. But it is not necessary to say unequivocally that oil is undervalued and will grow. Maybe gold is overpriced. ???? Cryptocurrency market. From April 1, a digital ruble will appear in Russia. Officially and for individuals as well. At first, transactions will be served by 13 banks, later the list will expand. Among the main advantages are reduced commissions and the ability to pay with electronic money even where there is no Internet.
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The state program “quotas for keel”, which was supposed to revive commercial shipbuilding, is being closed. According to various estimates, 42-70 billion rubles are not enough for its implementation. Contracts under the program have already been concluded with the United Shipbuilding Corporation for 105 vessels. But building them on time is unlikely to succeed. One of the problems is sanctions. Foreign equipment was partly paid for, but not delivered. The money is stuck in the West, it is extremely difficult to get it out of there. It would be possible to order analogues in “friendly” countries, but the money has already gone. Industrialists are not eager to advance the same units twice. Denis Manturov was presented with a dilemma. Or flood the industry with another billion, increasing the budget deficit. Or bankrupt shipbuilders, which is fraught with big problems – not only an increase in unemployment, but also the fact that you can’t catch a lot of fish with fishing rods. The Ministry of Industry and Trade cannot yet name the exact amount of losses. But he promises that the construction will still be completed. In the meantime, he indulges in his favorite pastime – the postponement of the deadlines to the right. True, there is one problem. Well, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will find the money, Siluanov will throw another billions into a black hole, and then what? Keel quotas should now be in the second stage, it has been in effect since 2017. And since 2017, the delivery deadlines have been disrupted. The program did not work and without any sanctions. The head of the USC, Alexei Rakhmanov, received a hat from Putin for making unprofitable contracts. There is no reason to believe that the program will suddenly take off and “take off”. But it can float. @nebrexnya