#DnoDay Citibank decided to give a kick to the clients leaving it. From February 20, you will have to pay a commission of 500 rubles per month for storing funds after terminating the contract. If less than 500 rubles remain on the accounts in aggregate, the bank will appropriate them. It is clear that the organization is curtailing its activities in Russia. But why do it like that, suddenly you have to come back? Or they won’t release them at all, like other foreign banks. There is, however, an exception. The money will be transferred to a special account with the Central Bank if it is blocked under Federal Law-115 or the client is a foreign taxpayer who has not provided updated data or has not signed consent to transfer data to foreign tax authorities. The bank is curtailing its activities in Russia from 2021. And now it seems that the talks are reaching the finish line. As of April 2021, Citi served approximately 500,000 retail clients in Russia. By the beginning of February 2022, retail assets amounted to 48.1 billion rubles, of which 27.4 billion rubles. – consumer loans, 20.7 billion – credit cards. City’s retail loan portfolio will be selected by Uralsib. @nebrexnya
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The European Union has introduced exceptions for a new price ceiling for petroleum products from Russia. The price ceiling will not apply to petroleum products produced from Russian oil at foreign refineries and will not affect blends of petroleum products. As we said earlier, the main goal of the Western embargo is not to ban energy exports from Russia, but to reduce its profitability. All excess margin goes to China, India and other countries the Kremlin calls “friendly”, giving them reasons to support the Western price ceiling. Russian oil companies, by the way, are also interested in complying with the price ceiling – this is how they withdraw profits from taxation. Taken together, this leads to the fact that there is no shortage in the market, oil and fuel prices are at an acceptable level, and the export earnings of the Russian Federation are falling. In theory, this should force the Kremlin to abandon the continuation of hostilities (in practice, Russia still has a lot of resources for the war, however, mainly due to a decrease in the quality and length of life of Russians).
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#NonbrekhnyaLearned Kolokoltsov does not want to pay IT specialists under a government contract, #Nonbrekhnya found out. The agreement for 75 million rubles provided for the creation of specialized software for working with departmental financial reporting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The contract was concluded in 2020 with ASBK SOFT. The office was supposed to develop and implement software by 2022, teach employees how to work with it and test everything. For a company with an annual revenue of 100 million rubles, the agreement is quite bold. Previously, ASBK SOFT worked with structures of the Ministry of Health (12 contracts with the Federal State Budgetary Institution “NMITs DGOI named after Dmitry Rogachev” for 61 million rubles), the Ministry of Finance (6 contracts with FKU “VO “VO Ministry of Finance of Russia” for 40.5 million rubles), the Ministry of Emergency Situations (2 contracts with FKU “FRC EMERCOM of Russia” for 34 million rubles). In total, the company has 281 state contracts for 620.8 million rubles in varying degrees of readiness. But for some reason, cooperation with the police did not work out. The company sent a claim to arbitration in full the amount of the contract.Moreover, she sent it ahead of time – the first instance returned it, asking them to try to resolve the dispute out of court.At the same time, ASBK SOFT is suing the All-Russian Research Institute of Radioelectronics.The parties sent counterclaims to each other: programmers want 1.8 million rubles for their services, and the research institute is trying to terminate the contract through the court.There are no courts with other state customers.
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It’s not so much about large construction projects, but about the election campaign, which Sobyanin should already be in full swing. And here is a simple and understandable project that directly affects millions of people. And here it is, the real one, you can touch it. In addition, the project is insanely expensive – hundreds of billions of rubles. It is necessary to show the result, otherwise Siluanov will come to dispossess kulaks of Moscow. he urgently needs money. @nebrexnya
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Igor Sechin became interested either in philosophy, or religion, or stand-up. “The crooked cannot become straight, and what is not, cannot be counted,” the head of Rosneft uttered a quote from the Old Testament Book of Ecclesiastes. He was talking about hydrocarbons. According to Sechin’s idea, the translation is as follows: “the reference price for Russian oil can be formed only in those markets where this oil is sold.” Which, of course, is logical – the price of Urals fluctuates from port to port, so we learn its real value only from the reports of the Ministry of Finance. And the Ministry of Finance itself does not believe in these reports and is looking for an alternative in the face of “a decrease in the representativeness of quotations.” The crooked path of the Urals will not become straight. But this does not prevent Rosneft from planning a 5% increase in production in 2023. In defiance of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who expects Russia to reduce production by 500-700 thousand barrels per day. That is, by the same 5%. On the other hand, why consider something that does not exist? Sechin, with his selection of literature, perfectly illustrates the mood in the industry. Everything is decay, everything is vanity, everything is meaningless. And Rosneft itself remains, as bequeathed in the Book of Ecclesiastes, only to hope and unite with God. @nebrexnya
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The Prosecutor General’s Office said that the police “put a spoke in the wheels” of business in a third of the regions of the Russian Federation in 2022. Of course, the department of Igor Krasnov heroically stopped all these abuses. Has it stopped? In general, I wonder what kind of interdepartmental conflict this is at such and such a time for the country? @nebrexnya
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By yourself or asked? Sber says goodbye to Abu Dhabi. Since February 6, Sberinvest Middle East Limited has lost all permissions for the provision of banking services. In 2020, Sber presented this structure as a licensed “Islamic window” for working with exporters. Since June 2021, Sberinvest has had permission for investment advice, organization of transactions, issuance of loans, as well as for “activities regulated by Sharia law.” In December 2022, the bank mentioned that it was going to close the division due to sanctions hindering work. Although, given the number of Russians who moved to the UAE with big money, the decision does not look very logical. The volume of mutual trade between the countries in 2022 exceeded $7.5 billion compared to $5.5 billion a year earlier. But other banks that have not yet fallen under sanctions will be able to occupy this niche. For example, MTS-Bank, which is part of the structure of AFK Sistema, announced the opening of an office in Dubai at the end of November 2022. It is also logical to introduce a bank from the Muslim regions of Russia in the UAE, for example, Ak Bars Bank from Tatarstan. He already has 65% of foreign currency payments of corporations in dirhams. And we have to admit that Sberbank can no longer be an international project, which became clear from its hesitant exit to Crimea. @nebrexnya
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#MorningNebrehnya The tourist attraction of Russia is a big question. In 2022, only 200 thousand foreign tourists visited it. This is less than in the covid 2020 and 2021. And compared to the pre-pandemic 2019, the tourist flow has collapsed by 96%, from 4.9 million tourists. In the near future, the situation may be slightly rectified by the Chinese: they were allowed to leave the country as part of organized tourist groups. Previously, this was not possible due to covid restrictions. @nebrexnya
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The market background is positive. Asia and America are at zero, Europe is in the black. Commodity market is positive. News that will affect the markets: Russia was able to increase oil exports in January, despite the EU embargo. The European Union excluded from sanctions oil products produced from Russian oil outside the Russian Federation. The Ministry of Finance abandoned the idea to introduce 30% personal income tax for non-residents remotely. The outflow of investors from mutual funds in January amounted to 3 billion rubles. They use the money to buy cheaper Russian shares. Novatek plans to delist from the London Stock Exchange on March 7. Baidu will release a ChatGPT analogue in March. Today: 35 new shares from Hong Kong will start trading on the St. Petersburg Exchange. @nebrexnya
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Now Roskomnadzor must impose a turnover fine on Roskomnadzor. Because he didn’t follow. A bill on turnover fines for personal data leaks of 1% has been discussed since the summer. And the main question is exactly how to fine government agencies, which themselves allow a huge number of leaks. And it is unlikely that anything will improve with data protection in the near future. There is no one and nothing to protect them, the specialists have left, and foreign software products for the most part are not available. @nebrexnya
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Great split, Dimon! #ThereTwoChairs There was such a character in the Russian elite – a young techno-stealer (protege of Rostechno) Dmitry Ovsyannikov, who served as governor of Sevastopol in 2017-2019. He was remembered by the locals by the nickname “Dima-40 percent.” For a specific style in solving problematic issues: you give him a 40% share in your business – and your issue is resolved. So, for example, the red-haired governor allowed the opening of the shopping center Lavanda Mall to the local United Russia party Liseytsev. Although at first he resisted so much that he ordered to put a fender at the exit to the shopping center, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations forbade issuing a license for a fire alarm (because of this, the shopping center was closed for a year). Even more interesting was the issue of permission to increase the number of storeys of the illegally built Dialog shopping center in the center of Sevastopol. Ovsyannikov simply turned a blind eye to him after the owner of the squatter, half-businessman-half-bandit Prikhodko sold the restaurant “Rybatsky Stan” on the embankment of the Sevastopol Bay to the governor’s father for a symbolic million dollars. The value of the asset was then estimated at $3 million. After the dismissal of the governor, the extra floors near the shopping center were still dismantled ????♂️ Everything was fine with our hero. And only one thing poisoned his life (except for conflicts with small urban oligarchs): European sanctions, under which he fell for the leadership of the “annexed territory”. After being fired from office and scandalously leaving United Russia for swearing at the airport, Ovsyannikov appealed to the European Court demanding that personal sanctions be lifted from him, since he is no longer an official violating the “territorial integrity of Ukraine.” To everyone’s surprise, he won the trial, right in the midst of the SVO. Europe imposes sanctions “for the annexation of Crimea” not only for work in the state apparatus of the peninsula, but also for doing business in the region. And the ex-governor in Sevastopol has a lot of squeezed out business. But everything is successfully registered with relatives or dummy legal entities. Ovsyannikov became the first business official who showed miracles of stretching and sat down on a twine on two chairs: he kept the “prohibited” assets and got out of sanctions. In a word – well done, he circled everyone around his finger. And not one. @nebrexnya
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Experts @nebrexnya specially for @kremlin_mother_expert 5 world economic news that will have consequences ???????? The main news is definitely the earthquake in Turkey. The price of oil rose after the closure of the Turkish port of Ceyhan with an oil terminal. Shares of building materials manufacturers, mostly Turkish, soared: Nuh Cimento, OYAK Cimento, Nigbas Nigde Beton and Konya Cimento. Turkey, which was already in an economic crisis, received a severe blow, the extent of which is even roughly unknown. Erdogan declared a state of emergency. ??????? Egypt is approaching a severe economic crisis. The level of public debt is approaching 100% of GDP, its servicing costs 45% of all government spending. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by half in a year. Product inflation in 2022 was 37%. In addition, the high level of unemployment and poverty of the population: more than 30% of Egyptian citizens are below its line. Such a standard of living can provoke popular unrest and a new revolutionary change of power. ??????? The US will soon impose a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum imports. Given that the Russian Federation is the second largest producer of this metal in the world and covers about 10% of US imports, the consequences for both countries will be very tangible. A lot of things will rise in price, up to smartphones and laptops in an aluminum case. ??????? SPB Exchange and Freedom Finance are creating an exchange of foreign securities in Kazakhstan – ITS. At the start of work, 2,000 foreign issuers will be trading. It will only be able to conduct a secondary listing of securities, without the possibility of an IPO. But Russian investors will be able to access it. This will allow normal trading of foreign stocks. And if Kazakhstani institutional investors come to the stock exchange, it will work quite cheerfully. ??????? Russia retains its total dependence on Europe in terms of dairy cultures and seed base. It will be possible to replace them with imports, maybe by 2025. Or maybe not. It turns out that EU sanctions have so far been introduced almost imperceptibly. The EU hits the export of petroleum products. Or maybe leave Russia without bread and sour cream.
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Even entrepreneurs who are in power are leaving Russia in shoals. Billionaire Vitaly Orlov is moving his Norebo fishing holding to the UK. Quite “unfriendly” jurisdiction. It seemed to run and run. But Orlov is one of the main (after the head of Russian Aquaculture Gleb Frank) beneficiaries of the legislative regulation of the fishing industry. Moreover, the scandalous regulation – the All-Russian Association of Fishermen even applied to the Federation Council, because state support measures were offered only to the elite. And now the main beneficiaries have sunk to the bottom: Gleb Frank is hiding from the mobilization, Ilya Klebanov has quietly gone to Israel, and Vitaly Orlov has sharpened his skis to London. Offended by the scandal? @nebrexnya
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Officials will write off millions of rubles for songs and dances in honor of the anniversary of the Northern Military District, and it was prudently decided to mark the date away from the theater of hostilities – on Sakhalin. Last year, the concert “We do not leave our own” was held in the Crimea. The festival of the same name will be held in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on February 22-24, the most famous concert patriots of the country – Yulia Chicherina, Sergey Bobunets, Sergey Galanin, Va-Bank and others will set the audience up for victory from the stage. True, for some reason they did not agree to perform for free out of love for the Motherland (and art). As a result, Chicherina will receive 2.3 million rubles in advance for going on stage, the rock group SerGA – 2.7 million, Bobunets with his “Hallucinations” – 1.4 million rubles. For more than 4 million, the region will buy air tickets for the festival participants. On Sakhalin, the budget deficit this year is 21 billion rubles (revenues are 132.8 billion, expenses are 153.8 billion), the Sakhalin-1 project is in limbo (Sechin assures that production has begun and everything is fine, but there is still no confirmation no), last year oil production fell by 44%, there are systemic problems in healthcare, hundreds of orphans cannot get their apartments. But the primary needs, it seems, are the payment of millions of rubles to patriotic singers by mouth.
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At this pace, we will soon see Siluanov either on the porch or at the head of the committee of the poor (the committee of the poor, which was engaged in dispossession during the period of war communism). The catastrophic budget deficit leaves no choice for the head of the Ministry of Finance. The government proposed to the RSPP to allocate 200-250 billion rubles before payday to cover the budget deficit. Voluntarily, because Siluanov promised not to raise taxes. Bye. The decision on the voluntary contribution of RSPP member companies to the budget should be made based on the results of an analysis of windfall profits for 2021-22. But who will the government bend down, who received windfall profits? Fertilizers already. Oil and gas – already. Grocery retail – they will raise the price, they will have to freeze it, and there is a shortage, coupons and protests by Petrograd workers. IT – so they left, and they will leave even further. Construction workers are the most dangerous sector of the economy right now, it is about to collapse. Business has so far proposed to raise income tax by half a percentage point (was 20%, will be 20.5%). In general, everything is sad and scary at the Ministry of Finance. And the introduction of new fees is inevitable. Well, if from business. @nebrexnya
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#MorningNon-nonsense Have you always dreamed of passive income from securities? Dreams come true, though not with you, but with Euroclear. But at your expense. Euroclear received half of its net profit in 2022 from the income from investing frozen Russian assets. Compared to last year, the company’s net profit increased by 162% and amounted to €1.2 billion. @nebrexnya
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#Vectors of the Day The market background is positive. US, EU and Asian indices are up. The commodity market also looks cheerful. News that will affect the markets: The UK has announced new sanctions. The list includes 15 individuals and Russian defense companies. The EU is considering using the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to restore Ukraine, but only investment, without confiscation. The European depository Euroclear refused to accept the Russian ruble as a settlement currency. He earns so much on locked papers that he will very diligently prevent them from being unfrozen. The Ministry of Finance advocates full disclosure of financial statements by companies. Including for 2022. VKontakte completed testing of the RuStore app store. Former Coinbase manager pleaded guilty to insider trading charges. Today the corporate calendar is empty. @nebrexnya
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The disaster did not happen, the trading and manufacturing business came out of 2022 only slightly beaten. The fall by 2021 was only 1.5%, analysts of the MySklad cloud service calculated specifically for #Nebrekhni. They pulled out November and December – there was an explosive growth in sales. Another peak was in March-April, when consumers bought everything, expecting a rise in price and the departure of foreign brands. However, for the rest of the year, the Russians were austere. Therefore, many businesses closed: about 640 thousand legal entities. This is less than in the post-pandemic 2021, when almost 800 thousand organizations were liquidated. Retail sales showed a drop of 7% at the end of the year. The biggest drop in online stores is 11%, their share is eaten up by marketplaces, which grew by 9%. “In 2022, the flow of consumers from retail and online stores to marketplaces continued. I think the offline reduction will continue next year,” said #Nebrekhne Askar Rakhimberdiev, CEO of the cloud service MySklad. Interestingly, retail sales dynamics differ from region to region. In Ulyanovsk and Perm, the decline was 28% and 23%, respectively, and in Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don, an increase of 6%. These regions have a lot of militaries who create demand. @nebrexnya
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Cucumbers strongly disagree with the IMF. They entered into a criminal conspiracy with tomatoes and carrots. And they got more expensive. Tomatoes have added 29.59% in price since the beginning of the year, carrots – 21.11%. There is a real rally among cucumbers: +53% since the beginning of the year. All this accelerated weekly inflation to 0.26%. And in annual terms – up to 11.72%. Here, neither the Central Bank’s target of 4%, nor the IMF with its 5% look convincing. Unless tomorrow the Central Bank will raise the rate … @nebrexnya
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Colleague, I looked who is the owner of this wonderful enterprise that sells items of equipment for 210,000 rubles, which in the same China costs 30,000 rubles. I’m not hinting at anything, but one of the founders of this office is someone – Stepanenko Artem Dmitrievich Perhaps this is just a coincidence (although I personally don’t think so) – but the full name is completely identical to the name of the young man who got into a scandal when he broke up in Moscow Tesla car, and whose dad Stepanenko Dmitry Alexandrovich served in the FSO, and then in different years he was consistently: Since 2012 – a member of the working group of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to improve the legislation on Special Economic Zones in the Russian Federation. In 2014 – Advisor to the Minister of Investments and Innovations of the Moscow Region. From 2014 to 2016 – Minister of Agriculture and Food of the Moscow Region. From 2016 to 2021 – Chairman of the Government of the Yaroslavl Region. On March 22, 2022, Artem Stepanenko, Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management, somehow miraculously became the founder of several clothing companies this year, including special forces. I would like to know if this is Artem Stepanenko – the son of a high-ranking official, or not? And isn’t this the young man who carried the banner of Victory at the Parade on May 9, 2019? … The information was confirmed. This is the official’s son.
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#DayDay Banks are closing. For half a year, credit organizations closed about a thousand additional offices in Russia. Their number dropped to 24.2 thousand. Interestingly, during the pandemic, when customer service almost completely migrated to the Internet due to the lockdown, banks closed offices much less frequently: 590 branches in 2021 and only 227 in 2020. Sberbank is the leader. Of the thousand closed doors, it accounts for more than 800. Against this background, stories about Sberbank’s profit of 110 billion rubles look cynical. It is clear that the profits are inflated and the bank has problems, like everyone else. And in fact, there is a reduction in profits by three quarters, and not a grandiose success, as Gref presents it. But closing 800 offices and putting thousands of people out of work amid big problems is a necessary optimization. And to do the same against the background of grandiose success is cynical capitalism. Employees, of course, are happy that their bank has entered the Crimea, they are proud and hang portraits of Gref in the room. But then the refrigerator is opened and the portraits are taken. @nebrexnya
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Adoniyev in Sibanthracite will be replaced by ex-partner of the late Dmitry Bosov Alexander Isaev. Adoniev himself is not up to it – he fell under US sanctions and is now blowing his feet from the world’s largest anthracite producer. Yota co-founder Sergey Adoniev became the owner of a stake in Sibanthracite just four months ago. Sanctions significantly accelerate the redistribution of business in Russia. Together with Isaev, the owner of Sibanthracite through the firm “A-Property” will continue Albert Avdolyan. He, together with the ex-head of Sibanthracite, Maxim Barsky, acquired 100% of the company from the heirs of its founder Dmitry Bosov. The case there turned out to be very muddy, as #Nebrekhnya talked about. After the “coal king” Dmitry Bosov committed suicide, his heirs drowned in the courts with each other. They eventually sold Sibanthracite for $1 billion. In 2021, the holding received revenue of 83 billion rubles against 44.5 billion rubles a year earlier. The company’s net profit amounted to 23.1 billion rubles, while the year before the loss was close to 116.5 million rubles a year earlier. Bosov’s empire began to actually fall apart. And what is happening now is just a division of the remnants. But the buzz of lawyers over this case does not stop. The main contender for a multibillion-dollar fortune, the widow of Dmitry Bosov, Ekaterina, at first began to very aggressively claim her rights to the holding, and even tried to manage it. And then she suddenly received the status of a foreign agent, which deprived her of the opportunity to adequately defend herself in court. @nebrexnya
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Atomic barter. What Russia will get from Sri Lanka in exchange for the nuclear power plant Sri Lanka and Russia are negotiating the construction of a small nuclear power plant. This was announced by Ambassador Janita Liyanage. Recently, the country experienced a severe economic crisis. But for Russia, Sri Lanka can become an important ally – due to its geographical uniqueness. Sri Lanka is a major trading hub in the Indian Ocean. And Russia, reorienting its exports to the Asian direction, wants to gain access to Sri Lankan ports. They can be turned into a transshipment point for oil tankers and ships carrying Russian exports. From Sri Lanka a stone’s throw to ???????? Malaysia, ????????? Indonesia, ???????? Vietnam. The rapidly growing economies of these countries need Russian oil products, grain, fertilizers, and metals. That is why Sri Lanka occupies a special place in Russian trade plans. The country itself is showing interest in Russia. Supplies of petroleum products from Russia meet 60% of local needs. And the authorities of Sri Lanka want to further increase the import of Russian energy resources. Russian grain and fertilizers are also waiting here. Sri Lanka itself, in the conditions of the departure of Western clothing suppliers, can supply textiles to Russia. The country is its major exporter. He also grows tea and spices. Already fighting for influence over the strategically advantageous Sri Lanka???????? USA, ???????? China and ???????? India. Now Russia is joining. And given the interest in joint projects on the part of the Sri Lankans, Moscow has a chance to realize its ideas.
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In Russia, you can now take a loan secured by intellectual property. The Moscow government will provide the risks for banks. The guarantee will be up to 95%. The main question for this mechanism is how will scoring be provided? No one in Russia has given such loans before, banks have zero competencies and experience. In addition, it will be hard for Rospatent – now only it can evaluate intellectual property. And if the phenomenon becomes widespread, a queue of banks and borrowers will line up there. It is unlikely that the department is ready for this. The initiative looks rather dubious also because there is no intellectual property as such in Russia. In addition to the difficulties with its protection between Russian copyright holders, the products of “unfriendly” countries can generally be stolen as you please. Is it possible to get a loan secured by a hacked Photoshop or an avatar downloaded from a torrent? @nebrexnya
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#Opinion Short contributions are back in business. In January, the interest of Russians to deposits for 3 and 6 months sharply increased. And in November last year, the situation was a mirror image – money flowed from short deposits into long ones. Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, explained #Nebrekhne that he connected this with a change in deposit rates. “At the end of last year, they began to grow – banks expect an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and interest rates increased slightly. Accordingly, higher annual rates are offered for long-term deposits,” Deev said. So, last year, short deposits were in demand due to a sharp increase in rates after the Central Bank raised the key rate to 20%, but by the autumn an outflow of customer funds began for a number of reasons. The expert, among other things, calls the reduction of the Central Bank rate, internal events in the country and the relocation of some citizens abroad. Now, according to him, the demand for deposits is recovering. @nebrexnya
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Margin call for Evgeny Prigozhin. How much do prisoners cost for Wagner PMC and for the state? Today, Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the recruitment of prisoners to participate in the battles in the “Wagner” is being stopped. There are several political explanations: either the Ministry of Defense will deal with this on its own, or the noise from human rights activists has become too much, or the rest preferred bunks to trenches. # Nonsense looked for an explanation in the economic plane. @nebrexnya
“Shadow hosts” Sochi and their “puppets”
In Vodokanal “saws” cats, Ovechkin is inactive in the prosecutor's officeDespite the resignation and subsequent arrest of the former mayor...