​#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral, closer to negative. Asia and the USA are in the red, the EU is at zero, but with a negative bias, the commodity market without a pronounced vector. News that will affect the markets: The EU intends to introduce new sanctions against Russia on the anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. Anniversary gift. The House of Representatives of the US Congress will not go to increase the public debt without a reform of government spending. No, this is still not a default, but political squabbles. The ECB raised its key rate by 0.5% to 3%. The opening of the Chinese economy threatens the EU energy sector due to the shortage of hydrocarbons and rising prices. Consumer activity in Russia is declining. Russians spent 16% and 12% less year-on-year in December and January. And if you add 12% inflation here, the Russians cut their spending by a quarter. Apple’s sales have plummeted. On an annualized basis, Apple’s profit fell 10% and sales fell 5%. Maybe it was not worth “bricking” iPhones in Russia? Today: ????Etalon Group may publish operating results for the fourth quarter and the whole of 2022. ????The RF Ministry of Finance will report on the assessment of the deviation of oil and gas revenues from planned in February. @nebrexnya
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Inspired by the success of Belarusian oysters, shrimp fly to the Moscow region. ADD Power Rus plans to build a farm to grow Vannamei white king prawns by 2024. Investments in the project will amount to 875 million rubles, and the design capacity will be 450 tons per year. True, a legal entity called “ADD Power Rus” is engaged in the wholesale trade of equipment, apparently, diesel generators. In 2021, it earned 44 million rubles. How this will help in the cultivation of almost a billion shrimp is unclear. Yes, and the services for checking counterparties have questions for the organization. Now Vannamei shrimp are supplied to Russia mainly from farms in India, China and Bangladesh. It is not easy to meet them in the wild, they live mainly off the coast of Belarus, Mexico and Peru. But in the muddy waters of the Moscow River, you can catch something else… @nebrexnya
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The discount on Russian oil is growing, making any price cap and other sanctions measures meaningless. So far, it looks the same as painting the lawns at large enterprises in the summer – to keep people busy with anything, so as not to create unemployment. And with oil – to sell at any price, if only not to reduce production and not to show that the sanctions are working. @nebrexnya
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​BCS Exclusive Forecast: Which Chinese Stocks to Look Out for in February? January turned out to be a strong month for the Chinese market, experts from BCS World of Investments noted in a forecast prepared specifically for #Nebrekhni. “Among the factors that had a positive impact, one can single out the continued easing of coronavirus restrictions and, as a result, a positive change in expectations for the pace of economic recovery, improved regulatory background, and stimulation of the Chinese economy,” said Anatoly Klim, an analyst at BCS World of Investments. Companies focused on the domestic consumer are more likely to benefit from the lifting of lockdowns. And this is retail and marketing: ????Alibaba (one of the world’s largest operators of online trading platforms) – the recovery of domestic demand will contribute to an increase in demand for various categories of goods of the world’s largest brands (clothes, accessories, other paraphernalia). ????China Resources Beer (producer of the most popular beer in China under the Snow brand) – the opening of restaurants may increase demand for the company’s products and positively affect financial results. ????J.D. com (one of the largest Chinese e-commerce, logistics and retail companies) – the lifting of restrictions could help restore demand for the company’s products, as well as improve the delivery of goods, as during the period of restrictions, the company’s orders were periodically canceled due to the closure of individual delivery centers. ????Baidu (a Chinese technology company specializing in Internet-related services and products, as well as artificial intelligence) – A recovery in domestic demand will boost customer interest in advertising on Baidu’s search engine. The expert believes that among the upcoming important events, some may become catalysts for the stock market of China. In particular, the release in February-March of corporate statements of the largest Chinese companies that are traded on US stock exchanges. @nebrexnya
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??????? What Lev Khasis is really afraid of is returning to Russia to be torn to pieces by SledKom (about stripping down to underpants through credit schemes in favor of foreign legal entities of the retail holding X5) and b-bankster German Gref (for a partially successful attempt to squeeze out and plunder the Sber Ecosystem) . Now Lev Aronovich is sitting on the money withdrawn from the Russian Federation in Florida and is trying to challenge Canadian sanctions. They allegedly prevent him from seeing his elderly brother, whom he also took to a nursing home in the province of Ontario, as well as the graves of his ancestors. However, as reported, he allegedly already came to Toronto at least twice on business: the open border between the two countries does not contribute to the total control of vehicles. Khasis’s lobbying efforts are focused not only on tearing tears from the Canadian authorities (it is useless from the British, which also sent the “orphan” under sanctions, but he does not need from the Australian ones), but also on costly attempts to avoid American sanctions. Work as a top manager in the largest Russian state-owned bank and participation in big business greatly contribute to this. So, perhaps, this surname will appear in the nearest wide list. The future “victim of the war” denies any sympathy and connection with Vladimir Putin, but it is known that they met in person. Also, the fugitive bankster is terribly unnerved by reports in the Russian media and Telegram that he withdraws and launders money for Gref. This is not so, but hearing is very painful. Khasis has already been cut off almost all opportunities for investing and doing business in the United States. And the money must be hidden until it is taken away.
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#DnoDnya Tinkoff is in an idiotic situation again. The bank refused to recognize Crimea as Russian. Literally. In the support service, a Crimean who asked to deliver the card to the peninsula was told that delivery is possible “only in Russia”, and “abroad” postal services are temporarily not available. Well, Oleg Tinkov never considered Crimea to be Russian, and generally condemns foreign policy. But where is Potanin? He got the bank for a penny precisely because of Tinkov’s political position, which the authorities did not like. And at this rate, the bank will have to look for a new owner. 2.5 years ago, Tinkoff announced that it had about 30,000 clients from Crimea. After such statements will be smaller. True, very few people in Russia “recognize” Crimea in terms of business. Cellular operators of the “Big Three” fight for communication as for international roaming, banks did not enter the SDN list of the US Treasury either. And after that, the same Sberbank came in as if it was preparing to run away at any second. There are no even federal retail chains. So there are many questions that entrepreneurs can ask. @nebrexnya
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On February 7, the Intellectual Property Court considers a dispute between Yandex and Rambler, owned by Sberbank, over the Yandex Afisha trademark. The lawsuit, in which Yandex is challenging the decision of Rospatent to cancel the registration of the Yandex Afisha trademark, has been going on for more than three years and is finally nearing completion. In fact, we are talking about the “privatization” by Rambler of the commonly used word “Poster”, which Yandex uses in the designation “Yandex Afisha”. Rambler’s position is that the use of the word “Afisha” in other trademarks is a violation of the law. If the court takes the side of Sberbank / Rambler, then this decision will set a kind of vector that will affect law enforcement practice related to patent disputes. Thousands of trademarks from bona fide copyright holders that use commonly used words such as “bank” could be at risk. Such a decision would open the door to patent trolls and entities initiating litigation to abuse the right. It remains to be hoped that all parties understand the absurdity of such disputes and the case will end with a reasonable decision, and, finally, a final point will appear in this dispute. @ruarbitr
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An Armenian broker with the original name Armbrok began trading blocked Russian securities from under the counter. Depositary receipts of VK, HeadHunter, Tinkoff and Yandex are trying to sell foreign banks and investment funds from their accounts. For most, this is a windfall, as the assets were written off a long time ago. And now they are on sale, and at a discount. Trading takes place on the over-the-counter market and only by those companies that are not sanctioned. The jurisdiction of the buyer does not matter. Theoretically, you can take a chance and buy receipts, and then transfer them to Russian jurisdiction through an incomprehensible procedure. In March-April, those who bought receipts of Russian issuers that had fallen in price by 90-95% in London were able to get rich when they converted them to the Russian Federation 1 to 1. Will this work for the second time? Well, stock discount = risk premium. @nebrexnya
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The sale has begun. The Ministry of Finance will triple the sale of the yuan under the fiscal rule. From February 7 to March 6, they will amount to 160.2 billion rubles. In the period from January 13 to February 6, the volume of currency sales was expected at the level of 54.5 billion rubles. The dollar responded with a sharp rise of 0.8%, the yuan did not react in any way. In general, the Ministry of Finance can afford such entertainment. Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves have increased by $50 billion since October and amount to $597.7 billion. Half of them, of course, are blocked, but the trend is obvious – the indicator was returned to the level of April. But there is no choice either – oil and gas revenues in foreign currency decreased by 108 billion rubles. If you do not sell the currency, the ruble will go down. Will the reserves be enough for a long time, because the income from the export of hydrocarbons will not grow in the short term? The answer here is “hold out until better times.” And there, oil may rise in price or the Urals discount to Brent will decrease, or the embargo will be canceled altogether. The question is different. Why does the Ministry of Finance keep the ruble from falling into hell with one hand, while with the other it proposes to withdraw Gazprom from the 34% income tax for LNG exporters? The budget deficit is over, oil and gas revenues have not really disappeared, or does Siluanov know something? @nebrexnya