#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. The Americans are in a slight minus, the Asian and EU indexes are in positive territory. The commodity market is multidirectional, oil and gas are slightly more expensive, aluminum soars by 2.2%, nickel – by 3.8%. Copper is in a small minus. Events that will affect the markets: The United States is preparing a new $2.2 billion military aid package for Ukraine, which for the first time may include longer-range missiles: GLSDB with a range of 150 km. But not 300 km ATACMS. The Turkish parliament does not ratify the protocol on the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO under the current conditions. Trading continues. French workers stage another strike against Macron’s pension reform. In 2022, the volume of purchases of gold by the central banks of different countries amounted to $70 billion, a record since 1967. The Moscow Exchange will launch trading in futures for the Nikkei and DAX indices in a few weeks. The plans include the indices of Turkey and Brazil. ExxonMobil made a record profit for 2022 — $55.7 billion Oilers in chocolate. Today: Fed meeting. The rate is expected to increase by 0.25% to 4.50-4.75%. @nebrexnya
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A rather frightening number of mothballed or abandoned boreholes was discovered by Rosprirodnadzor during the inventory. 17014 objects. Not all of them, of course, are dangerous – only 366. However, 151 wells are located within the boundaries of settlements. Another 17 are near water, 78 are on agricultural land, and 61 are in forests. If something goes wrong on them, people and forests will suffer, and water pollution is generally an environmental disaster. In general, the department of Svetlana Radionova threw work. Wells need to be liquidated and secured before disaster strikes. The money for this is included in the federal project “General Cleaning”. But why didn’t the oilmen themselves clean up the exhausted wells? @nebrexnya
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#There areTwoChairs The story of Abramovich’s transfer of money to Ukraine is muddy only at first glance. It is known that Roman Abramovich’s money, which he received from the sale of the Chelsea football club, will go to Ukraine. The amount is a record – 2.3 billion pounds. The question is how active was Abramovich’s consent to this deal? And if it was, what do they think about it in the Kremlin? And if the Kremlin is aware, then how to explain this step to the Z-patriotic public? Abramovich himself hastened to excuse himself. They say that the British government manages the money, there’s nothing to be done. But then it turns out that there are no legal grounds for transferring money to Russia or aggressively pro-government oligarchs, and Abramovich, who has been deftly maneuvering between the interests of the parties for a year now, can be put on at the click of a button? Incredible. But if you pay attention to the old news, then nothing unexpected happens. Abramovich himself promised back in March 2022 that all profits from the sale of the club would go to a fund to help Ukrainians affected by hostilities. He promised publicly, and even then he caught his wave of hate about “where were you for 8 years” and why didn’t you help Donbass. So everyone in the Kremlin knew. And Britain gave permission for the deal under such conditions. She just ditched Abramovich anyway and froze his assets. Before, during and after the deal, Abramovich participated in a variety of negotiating formats between Russia and Ukraine. And no one objected. And now he doesn’t mind. The situation is reminiscent of an agreement between everyone and everyone. Abramovich is under sanctions, he cannot get out from under them. At the same time, the Russian oligarch must remain his own here and there. Therefore, it seems like he is donating a lot of money to Ukrainians, but not for weapons, but as humanitarian aid to the victims. And not by choice, either. Type. Now it is interesting to follow the dynamics of Abramovich’s court to lift the sanctions. And where does his money really go? @nebrexnya
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India will dress Russians Northern India Trends clothing manufacturer and exporter may start working in Russia. Moreover, the company does not even have its own retail network, and above all, it provides production facilities for tailoring collections for Western brands like Maje. Stylist Vladislav Lisovets already doubts that “it will be something super decent”, and adds that “so far it all sounds sad.” Although sad, it is still not the same as the promised wide import of clothes from the DPRK. Indian clothes, even cheap ones, are reminiscent of dances and songs, not cosmetic fines.
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Why do we need a law at all? Valentina Matvienko proposed to abandon the 44-FZ on public procurement under special time conditions. And then the money is not quickly rowed and mastered. That is, the third party of the state and the head of the upper house of the legislature calls into question the main law on public procurement. As she herself put it, there is no need to “cling to some dogmas.” The measure will free both federal customers and regions from control. If now for the distribution of orders to affiliated persons and organizations at prices above the market, you can at least get a term, then if a moratorium is adopted, public procurement is unlikely to be held differently. And what to do, the budget is terribly scarce, the feeder is melting every day. The budget deficit at the end of 2022 amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles (against 1.3 trillion was expected). And there will probably be more. You need to grab as much as possible. No time for laws now. The situation in public procurement is sad even without fire measures. Their total volume under the same 44-FZ increased from 12.4 trillion to 12.9 trillion rubles. (by 4.2%), and the number decreased from 3.7 million to 3.5 million (by 6.3%). The average price increased to 3.3 million rubles, that is, by 16% at once. Interestingly, while Russia is triumphantly carrying out a special operation to destroy the Ukrainian national battalions, Ukraine officially calls what is happening a war and lives in a state of martial law. But this does not prevent us from fighting corruption or at least imitating the fight: searches at the Ministry of Defense officials due to suspicions of buying low-quality bulletproof vests, searches at the head of the tax inspectorate in Kyiv due to fraud with VAT, dismissal of the leadership of the Ukrainian customs (generally, there are legends about it, the level of corruption is outrageous). Search at the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky because of the waste of oil products. Searches at the ex-head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov because of questions on the purchase of helicopters. Can anyone imagine searches at Valentina Matviyenko’s? @nebrexnya
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Experts @nebrexnya specially for @kremlin_mother_expert 5 world economic news that will have consequences ???????? Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 3.1% in 2022. Export earnings increased by 45%. The economy of Russia’s southern neighbor is structured in much the same way as the Russian one – the export of hydrocarbons and metals, a developed agricultural sector and good industrial indicators. So for this country, you can compare the clock: it is 3% growth, and not 2.5% decline, that the Russian economy could get. ??????? Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) will launch a parallel gas hub in London to bypass the EU price cap mechanism. The company operates the Dutch gas hub TTF (Title Transfer Facility). In the vast majority of cases, it is used to compare the price of gas: we say $1,000 per thousand cubic meters, we mean the price of a delivery futures contract for TTF with an expiration date in the next month. A new market for futures and options on TTFs will start operating on London’s ICE Futures Europe from February 20, five days after the gas cap was introduced. It seems that the UK has received the first profit from Brext. ??????? Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1%. And thanks to Ireland. If not for her, it would have fallen by 0.2%. The EU economy is on the verge of recession. And if it were not for the warm winter, gas would cost much more, and the performance would be worse. Winter is coming to an end, fuel prices are trying to appear stable, so the peak of problems has passed. Goldman no longer predicts a recession in the Eurozone: he expects growth in 2023 to +0.6% instead of a decline of -0.1%. ??????? In Iran, the demand for chicken fell by 30%. For economists, this figure is an indicator of a catastrophe. There is no cheaper meat in the country, which means that people do not have enough money even for the most basic products. Iran has been led into an abyss by its leadership: due to unsuccessful reforms, corn and soybeans have risen in price five times, and they are the basis of the diet of poultry. Iran is already introducing food stamps. ???????????????? The United States has suspended the issuance of licenses to US companies to export products for Huawei. At this rate, the Chinese smartphone maker will be left without American technology at all. Already, users of Huawei smartphones may feel inferior: they cannot install a significant part of applications, Google services and many functions standard for other smartphones do not work. And if the pressure continues, it will be possible to see if China will be able to import substitution.
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The SBU is pressing Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. He is suspected of embezzling Ukrnafta PJSC and Ukrtatneft PJSC 40 billion hryvnia, tax evasion and money laundering. Until 2007, Ukrtatnafta was partially controlled by Tatneft: 18.3% of the shares were owned by structures close to Tatneft, 28.7% by the Ministry of Land and Property of Tatarsan, another 8.6% of the shares belonged directly to Tatneft. In 2007, not without the help of Viktor Yushchenko’s government, Kolomoisky became the majority shareholder of the company. Tatarstan considers the incident a raider seizure. The parties have been arguing over this for a very long time. International arbitration ordered Kyiv to pay $173 million in compensation, but Tatarstan did not receive the money. In February 2022, a court in the United States also supported the Tatarstan oil workers, demanding that confidential information be disclosed by March 18 in order to recover compensation. But on February 24, 2022, the argument lost its meaning. And on April 2, a Russian missile destroyed a significant part of the largest Kremenchug Oil Refinery, owned by UkrTatneft. And now Kolomoisky is being persecuted. Interestingly, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was called a protege of Kolomoisky, so for many this decision came as a surprise. It is quite possible that a large redistribution of Ukrainian property is beginning, and new financial and industrial groups will attack the assets. Will Zelensky himself be pushed aside? Until the end of the conflict, it is unlikely – it now plays too large a consolidating role in society. Kolomoisky is also known in Russia for swindling Roman Abramovich in a $2.2 billion deal on the sale by the Privat group of shares in five Ukrainian enterprises: the Dry Balka Mining and Processing Plant, the Dnepropetrovsk Metallurgical Plant, the Bagleykoks coking plant, and Dneprokoks “and Dneprodzerzhinsk Coke Plant. Maybe Abramovich gave 2.2 billion pounds to Ukraine in order to press Kolomoisky and avenge the violated interests of the Russian oligarch? Jokes aside, but still I wonder who and why thought of hitting the Druzhba oil pipeline? @nebrexnya
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VTB is threatened with an additional issue. Rather, at an extraordinary meeting (this is already a very loud bell that the bank is doing poorly), the bank’s shareholders themselves made such a decision. The authorized capital will be increased by 301.96 billion rubles and, as a result, will amount to a fabulous 952.99 billion rubles. At the same time, the share of private investors will shrink to tiny values, while the share of the state will grow from 60.93% to 88.3%. VTB will also receive RNCB, and last year it also bought Otkritie. Everyone already knows about Otkritie – the Central Bank injected 1.4 trillion rubles into it instead of the planned 200-300 billion rubles, and VTB bought it out for only 340 billion rubles. The RNCB will also first be pumped up with state money – the Federal Property Management Agency wants to capitalize it by 7.1 billion rubles. And now let’s move on to the specifics – to the consequences of the additional issue, which ordinary Russians, at least a little versed in investments, will be able to feel for themselves. The additional issue will dilute the share of minority shareholders, as the number of ordinary shares will increase by more than 30 trillion pieces, to 43.1 trillion. At the same time, the entire “surplus” will be taken by the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Property Management Agency, private traders will not get anything – just be content with the very 5 trillion shares that are traded on the Moscow Exchange. As a result, the profit share of minority shareholders will decrease from 11.38% to 6.77%. This will partly compensate for the fact that minority shareholders will also start to profit from Otkritie with RNCB. But only partially. The difference in the profit of minority shareholders between “before the additional issue” and “after the additional issue” will reach 21.9%. For example, if at the end of 2021 VTB paid dividends, then minority shareholders would receive 37.26 billion rubles out of 327.4 billion rubles of the bank’s profit. But in the case of an additional issue, the profit of VTB, Otkritie and RNCB would have grown to 429.8 billion rubles, while the profit of minority shareholders would have amounted to only 29.1 billion rubles. Not surprisingly, many experts and analysts today recommend avoiding VTB shares. But such recommendations appeared even before the decision on the additional issue – solely due to the fact that the profitability of the bank (despite Kostin’s words that VTB will return to profit already in 2023) does not shine until at least 2025.
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Sirius attacked Deripaska. In Sochi, one of the largest local hotels “Imeretinsky” with 2,000 rooms has closed. The site does not work, and they simply stopped serving tourists. The reason is the showdown between RogSibAL and the federal territory Sirius. Officials sued Deripaska for 30 plots with a total area of 14 hectares. Including those under the hotel complex. So the tourists unexpectedly moved from Sochi to Sirius. And it’s not like they liked it. An exciting drama is unfolding – whose administrative resource will be stronger. Deripaska, who is at least connected with metal, or Sirius, who is now generally not very clear why. @nebrexnya