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And corruption has increased. Almost a third (31.5%) of Russian entrepreneurs complained about this. Sanctions only added corruptogenic factors. And the main one is silence, which, as you know, money loves. And corrupt money cannot live without it. Allegedly, for the sake of protection from sanctions, huge amounts of data on state-owned companies are closed. For example, with information about the purchases of state-owned companies, they closed up to the point that even the Ministry of Finance did not know who bought from whom and for how much. According to statistics, it turned out that the volume of public procurement for the first half of the year was halved, although in fact it simply became invisible. The Bank of Russia closed the data of commercial banks and extended this restriction. As a result, investors are forced, like blind kittens, to buy shares at random. And this is in a situation where even whales of the level of VTB and Sberbank could collapse. But those who need it have the data they need. Nothing prevented Andrei Kostin from making a deal with the purchase of Otkritie, giving away a third of the price in government bonds. The Central Bank received a loss of 203 billion rubles. Is there a corruption element here? We do not know. Data from the Federal Customs Service, statements of state-owned companies, bank owners and much more information are not available to either experts or investors. As a result, the stock exchange is a minefield, banks are MMM, and no one knows what state-owned companies are doing. The data needs to be published (but not like this). No sanctions will cause as much damage as rampant theft and hiding inefficiencies in “official use” folders. Otherwise, the denunciation of the anti-corruption agreement will cease to be symbolic. @nebrexnya
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#MorningNon-nonsense Squeeze, but do not squeeze. The EU is trying to find a way to transfer the frozen Russian assets to the restoration of Ukraine. But the Europeans cannot expropriate them – there is no legal mechanism. In the process of discussion, a very intricate method was born. Money can be transferred to Ukraine, but as if on loan, subject to the return of Russia and the assets themselves, and interest. It is possible to collect Russian money into a certain fund and transfer to Ukraine a percentage of its management. The joke is that the EU does not know how much Russian state money it has frozen, and where it is. There is only a preliminary estimate – 33.8 billion euros. Well hidden. @nebrexnya
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#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. Asia and the EU are in a slight plus, the US is in a slight minus. Oil and gas are growing, otherwise the commodity market is multidirectional, but with a positive bias. News that will affect the markets: The US is imposing new sanctions against Russian organizations and individuals. The list includes ship repair enterprises, structures and people associated with the Wagner group and Yevgeny Prigozhin. For the company in the same lists of Manturov and Minnikhanov. Biden vowed to punish the Saudis for cutting oil production. US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2022 grew by 2.9% against the forecast of 2.6%. Xiaomi and Honor have resumed the recruitment of employees in Russian offices. The S&P 500 has consolidated above 4000 p., Breaking through the upper limit of the annual downtrend this week. The government did not agree on a deal to resell Vimpelcom. Today: Last day to enter the register of shareholders eligible to receive TMK dividends. @nebrexnya
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If it seems to you that your business has been pressed harder than usual for the last year, then it doesn’t seem to you. It’s just that the government really needs money to patch up black holes, and if you have it, it’s worse for you. In January-September 2022, entrepreneurs were charged taxes, fines, penalties and the like for almost 600 billion. And a year earlier it was less than 270 billion. It is difficult to believe that millions of entrepreneurs conspired and began to break the law 2.2 times more often. Everything is explained more simply: the tax authorities have become more active. The number of field tax audits increased by 1.5 times. And on-site inspections are only 0.02% of the entire tax work. Behind the closed ones, they are also looking for those from whom you can bite off a piece. The state can declare as much as it likes, which reduces the pressure on business. The numbers speak for themselves – the pressure is increasing. By the way, according to tax statistics, violations are found in 95% of tax audits. It turns out that only five out of a hundred Russians are ready to conduct business honestly. Or is it a matter of obviously unenforceable rules? @nebrexnya
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The budget rule is back in business. Theoretically, the Central Bank can again control the ruble exchange rate, replenish the NWF (or empty it) and a number of other financial transactions. What will happen to the ruble exchange rate and how the work will be organized? @nebrexnya
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Combat robot “Marker” Rogozin exists? Rogozin here presented the Marker combat robot, which the Abrams and Leopard tanks will beat. “Marker” was developed by the same office that made the miserable robot “Fedora”, NPO “Android Technique” commissioned by Roscosmos (represented by JSC NTC “Protection”), drew the attention of #Nebrekhnya. And this is a state purchase by JSC NTC “Protection” for 4.8 million rubles for the processing and adaptation of a scientific and technical project. The purchase dated July 26, 2022 and we are talking about the Marker self-propelled platform. More specifically, to write the terms of reference for the development of a security robotic platform. Deadline – November 2022. It is also interesting that the TOR states that a secrecy regime is not needed, as well as a regime to counter technical intelligence. The combat qualities of the Marker self-propelled platform were described as “possible with proper equipment.” The Marker platform, a plastic box on wheels/caterpillars, was presented as a “universal complex with a modular architecture, on which components and assemblies can be installed.” I wonder what they managed to stick into 4 cars, which the ex-head of Roscosmos announced, in the absence of Western technologies and components? It’s funny that in March 2022, the same JSC NTC Okhrana signed an agreement on the reconstruction of the security system for the territory of the Samara plant of the SEC Progress for 120 million rubles with a company from Chuvashia LLC Ortis. The Marker platform was not included in the equipment specified for use. It seems that the “Combat Marker” will fight in the same way as the robot “Fedor” worked in space. @nebrexnya
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Georgia is generally not the best place to open a bank account. Either they will block for “dubious transactions”, then they will prohibit using the card outside of Georgia, or they will put a paper of dubious content condemning Russia for signature. And this despite the fact that the Russians placed more than $670 million in Georgian banks. More than all foreign investors in 2020. @nebrexnya
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Movie theaters have lost customers to torrents. And, multiple times. About 250 thousand people visit all Russian cinemas per day. In terms of torrents, these are the downloads of three average movies. Basically, they download foreign films from torrents, which are now not available in cinemas or online cinemas. The level of demand for foreign content can be understood by the indicators of “Batman” – the film of the beginning of the year is downloaded in much the same way as “Cheburashka”, which is in theaters right now. 2022 was a disastrous year for the industry, with more than a third of cinemas already closed by May. By December, the fees of the remaining ones fell by 55-70%. So, torrents are back in business, although a year ago it might have seemed that they were noticeably inferior to streaming services and online cinemas. Now even the cinemas themselves download movies from torrents. The next step is to show screens in cinemas right away. @nebrexnya
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In Argentina, they swear at the Russian trolleybus. The Trolza plant in Engels (it would seem that the speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin has something to do with it) in the mid-late 2010s delivered a couple of dozen fashionable battery “horned” cars to Cordova and Santa Fe at a price of ~ $ 500 thousand each. Problems with them began from the very beginning of operation, and now the last ones had to be removed from the streets. Batteries turn off in the heat, do not withstand temperatures of + 37⁰С and above. The warranty replacement obligations of the machines ended in 2020, Trolza went bankrupt very conveniently and it is difficult to receive compensation from it. Now many people want to know how the head of the local “Deptrans” Rogelio Biacci bought Volodinsky trolleybuses without checking whether they can work in the multi-day heat, which is uncharacteristic for the Saratov region of the Russian Federation. The scandal around trolleybuses from Russia strangely followed the presentation of plans by Chinese companies to produce their models under license and from car kits in Argentina, as well as to make lithium batteries there. However, the country will default soon anyway and history will surely be forgotten. The trolleybus zoo of Argentina consists of old Soviet, Czech, more modern Russian, Belarusian and Chinese cars. In recent years, they have been out of service very quickly and the issue of replacement is still very acute.
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Do not think that tomorrow a Turkish energy fleet will appear off the coast of Ukraine, which will power the entire country and make the bombing of energy infrastructure pointless. “Memorandum of Understanding” translated into simple language is “if anything, we’ll see.” True, the bombings do not become meaningful from this either. In two months of shelling, the only blackout in the country has been achieved, ammunition costs a lot of money, and the remnants of Russia’s international image are mixed with dirt much more efficiently than enemy power plants. @nebrexnya
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Another very strange bill has been submitted to the State Duma. The deputies propose a strict deoffshorization of the Russian economy: all assets physically located in Russia, but with roots in offshore jurisdictions, are to be transferred to the management of a federal body authorized by the government. For decency, they promise to give six months for re-registration. Then – confiscation into the ownership of the Russian Federation as “ownerless property.” Everything is served as standard – under the sauce of national security and sovereignty. The problem is that after the massive arrests of Russian property abroad at the beginning of last year, most companies have already restructured their structure. What they managed to do was taken out, what they didn’t manage to do was “deoffshorized” by the EU and the USA themselves. But the main thing is that it is not even clear from the bill what an offshore is. Is it only Cyprus-Bermuda or Mongolia too? And what if the citizens of Cyprus legally own the assets and use them for their intended purpose? In addition, deoffshorization has been carried out in Russia for a long time, with varying degrees of success. To optimize taxation, “internal offshores” have been created. Since 2015, the number of companies with foreign co-owners has decreased by 74%. Moreover, residents of “unfriendly” countries cannot receive dividends from Russian legal entities. Offshore actually lost economic sense. And those who hide the ownership of VIP yachts, aircraft and other things through them will find how to hide them even deeper. Yes, and it will look strange if some business jet is confiscated after landing as “ownerless”. And the outflow of money in 2022 is not going to offshore, but to quite “friendly” countries like Armenia and Georgia. The outflow is record – 2.5 trillion rubles. for 2022, Moscow budget. But such “deoffshorization” cannot stop him. @nebrexnya