Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 01/19/2023

#Vectors of the Day The market background is neutral. The US and the EU are not moving, Asia is gaining a little, the commodity market is multidirectional. News that will affect the markets: the NWF continues to get rid of unfriendly currencies. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation excluded yen and pounds sterling from the NWF, and also reduced investments in euros by four times – to 10.5 billion. That’s just their height will reach 17 floors. The US is ready to help Ukraine strike in Crimea, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation. The Russian exchange usually responds negatively to such news. IMF: If China’s economic growth exceeds 4%, there will be new global inflationary risks. Fed chief Jerome Powell has contracted covid. Annual inflation in Russia as of January 16 slowed to 11.57% from 11.65% a week earlier. Today: Last day to enter the register of shareholders entitled to receive Beluga Group dividends. @nebrexnya
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Business is gradually moving into another world. In Russia, 14% more companies closed in 2022 than new ones opened. Interestingly, in absolute terms, the number of closed companies has become the lowest in seven years – 280,200. The difference between closed and opened businesses is the smallest in six years. Simply put, business is reluctant to make any decisions – both the opening of new organizations and the liquidation of old ones. In quarantine 2020, 2.4 times more businesses closed than new ones opened. It was the worst ratio in 18 years. At the same time, fewer enterprises were closed than in 2019, because it is difficult to carry out registration actions during the lockdown. For the same reason, new companies were reluctant to appear – complete uncertainty. Now the situation is similar with uncertainty, but the change in the configuration of the markets gives rise to whole new industries – payment for Netflix without opening a foreign account, parallel import of anything, tours to Uzbekistan with bank cards. There’s just a problem. The last time there were more open organizations in the Russian Federation than those closed in 2015. Since then, the number of legal entities has been decreasing year by year. And if in 2015 4.15 million legal entities were registered in Russia, and by 2020 there were 2.67 million of them. The trend is downward, the prospect is sad. @nebrexnya
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Another monopolist has emerged. The presidential administration began to recommend that state-owned companies and state-owned banks change their work with bloggers involved in information and advertising projects. This is called the “principle of one window”, but in fact monopoly, because. all contracts in the future should (on the recommendation of the AP) go through only the blogging agency Invite, which is part of the VK group. The conclusion suggests itself that in this way Vladimir Kiriyenko’s VK will not only consolidate all orders for major bloggers, having received exclusive opportunities for selling advertising, but will also fulfill any of Sergei Kiriyenko’s wishes. Namely, it will cut off from contracts all bloggers whom the AP considers disloyal.
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#NonbrehnyaRecognized Did the Ministry of Economic Development drown 48 million rubles in muddy Crimean media? As #Nebrekhnya found out, in 2022 the Ministry of Economic Development signed a contract for “Performing work on the development of the Crimea information and analytical portal.” But we noticed strange things. The contract was concluded with TECHCONSUR, which reduced the price from the original 70 million to 47.95 million rubles. The company is specialized, occupies 153rd place in the industry, the general director is Anton Dolgonovskiy. Revenue in 2021 — 713 million rubles. The terms of reference required the creation of a fairly powerful information system necessary for managing the development of territories. It should be able to work with the rights to land plots, interact with information systems of other departments, and much more. But it is not clear what exactly the contractor needed to develop. There is simply no such portal in the public domain. When trying to find the same information and analytical portal “Crimea”, the search offers only the third-rate regional media “Crimea Today”. The site is engaged in copy-pasting news from other news agencies, and even shows extremist symbols – the logos of Facebook and Instagram (extremist organizations banned in Russia). In general, there is a portal, but it has nothing to do with the development of the region. And the portal itself was clearly not developed by anyone. One gets the feeling that the speech in the procurement documents is generally about a different resource. But then the question arises – where is he? What exactly was the contractor supposed to “develop”? The contract with the firm has been terminated. The situation looks as if the painter was hired to paint the wall, and the wall has not yet been built. The most interesting thing is whether the budget money was mastered before its termination? @nebrexnya
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Sber here again shares “impressive”. And disperses victorious reports. But, as always in Sber’s communication, the main thing is written between the lines in press releases. So, Brand Finance Global has included Sberbank among the 200 most expensive brands on the planet. Persistently scrolling through the rating, you can find Sberbank on the 163rd line, between L’Oreal and the Canadian Scotiabank. Just a year ago, Sberbank occupied the 156th line, during the year it lost 7 positions. And this is subject to growing problems in the economy and, as a result, in Sberbank itself. Here it is important to understand one more thing. Sber is perhaps the main retail brand in Russia. With the departure of foreigners – without “perhaps.” In one way or another, almost the entire adult population of the country is involved in its work, it is supported by the state, it can openly be at enmity with the Central Bank (remember, with what squeak and mockery Sber introduced the SBP). And this brand, by the way, the most expensive in Russia according to the same Brand Finance Global, is on the 163rd place in the list, and even confidently rushed out of the top 200. If the main financial asset of the country is barely placed on the margins of the world ratings, maybe we are doing something wrong with the economy? Or Gref with Sberbank? Or all at once. @nebrexnya
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Ilya Sachkov recalled Maslow’s pyramid. The left IT specialists, in his opinion, will return to the country for self-realization, especially in the field of cybersecurity. Because Russia is being attacked the most and defended the least. But first, it would be nice to ensure their safety, wrote the head of Group-IB from the pre-trial detention center, who continues to be jailed for 20 years on a strange charge of treason. PMC “Hacker”. @nebrexnya
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Superjets will fly close. Because you won’t be able to fly far without fuel filters. And with them tension. Consumables were previously supplied by the manufacturer of Russian-French SaM146 engines – PowerJet. This is a joint venture between the French Safran Aircraft Engines and a subsidiary of the Rostec United Engine Corporation UEC-Saturn. Now it does not deliver, and since the fall. And Rostec cannot come up with their own fuel filters. More precisely, the UEC proposed some solution, but the Federal Air Transport Agency does not want to certify it. It is scary to imagine why – if an organization has already awarded a certificate to a worthless helicopter, then the refusal to certify a very necessary component indicates its complete unsuitability for use. UEC-Saturn offers fuel filters to airlines… wash them! Just flush with brake fluid. But such a measure is enough for about 40 hours of operation – several days of operation. And this despite the fact that the filters were initially so-so – instead of the declared 4 thousand hours, 2-2.5 thousand worked. In 2022, Rossiya and Azimuth airlines alone experienced 92 clogged fuel filter alarms. This is not the worst emergency – if the sensor worked on only one engine, the board continues to move along the route. And if on both – you need to either return or go to the spare. So passengers flying on Superjets will have exciting excursions to unexpected cities of Russia. @nebrexnya
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Construction company “Granel” from Bashkiria this week began to enjoy the surprising favor of the authorities, in particular, Marat Khusnullin. First, the company got into the Moscow preferential program for the transfer of land plots for residential construction in exchange for the construction of commercial real estate. Granel buys a 41,000 sq. m. meters in New Moscow, to which is attached a plot of another 80 thousand square meters. meters. Previously, the British Raven Russia claimed the site, but the deal fell through for obvious reasons. The purchase estimate is 2.3 billion rubles. As a result, the company snatched off a fat piece of land with a very profitable project, will build a logo park in an excellent location and will also receive benefits when transferring land for residential construction. And now “Granel” will also climb into Mariupol. She’s already recruiting for the city. It is clear that without the approval of Marat Khusnullin, it is not only impossible to work there, it is even extremely difficult to physically get there. The firm is headed by a former criminal and State Duma deputy, adviser to Radiy Khabirov, and now the prime minister of the government of Bashkortostan Andrei Nazarov, who formally left it. In Moscow, the company is known by human settlements with zero infrastructure in the deep castle. In January of this year, the company was at the center of a scandal when 17 of its high-rise buildings in Lopatino were left without heat and hot water in the cold. And now this company will restore Mariupol, where there are already big problems with the infrastructure – it is destroyed. @nebrexnya