After accusations of corruption against the Yatsenyuk government, according to expert opinion, a struggle for the position of prime minister began. Speaker Vladimir Groysman is tipped for the role of the new head of government. And allegedly, the GPU, who was running for the post of prime minister, Yulia Timoshenkov, was accidentally reminded of the criminal cases. Experts believe that the prosecutor’s office will play a key role in political processes and do not rule out the collapse of the coalition and new elections.
“Don’t spoil the mood” for ministers
On Friday, April 10, during a parliamentary meeting, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Vladimir Groysman said that Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin must report to people’s deputies by May 7 on the investigation into allegations of abuses in the government.
Shokin’s report was previously announced on April 10. But it did not take place. They were expecting a report from him on the investigation into statements made by the former head of the State Financial Inspectorate, Nikolai Gordienko, who in March accused the Yatsenyuk government of “protection schemes for corruption schemes.”
According to Gordienko, the amount of corruption losses reached 7.6 billion, of which about 3.5 billion occurred in the second half of 2014. The Prosecutor General’s Office opened criminal cases and reported on violations already identified in the amount of 685 million hryvnia.
Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin said in an interview on April 9: “I am deeply convinced that many schemes that existed before still work today. And for this power, and for that power.”
He hinted that he did not rule out arrests of government officials.
“Everything is clear and precise: if you have done something illegal, you will be held accountable. Whether you are from “this” government or from “that” government, I don’t care – you will answer. By the way, after the holidays, you will learn a lot of interesting things on this topic. I don’t just want to ruin people’s mood before Easter. Some ministers and some others. But, you will see.” – Shokin said.
GPU and coalition
According to the director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management Ruslan Bortnik, the GPU acts as an instrument of political pressure.
“Everything indicates that the Prosecutor General’s Office will be the main instrument of pressure not even on opponents, of whom there are practically none left, but on Poroshenko’s allies in the coalition,” he said.
The expert noted that on April 10, only on the fourth attempt, parliament voted to create a working group to investigate Gordienko’s accusations against the government. And Speaker Vladimir Groysman said that Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyukun cannot escape punishment if facts of abuses in his government are confirmed.
Let us recall that the parliamentary week began with a demand from a number of deputies to create a commission to study the accusations against Yatsenyuk. And Popular Front deputy Anton Gerashchenko accused Yulia Tymoshenko and other critics of the prime minister and government of carrying out “a campaign that was launched on Putin (*criminal)’s order.”
Bortnik believes that the conflict in the ranks of the opposition will develop.
“The conflict will only intensify. Especially after Anton Gerashchenko’s statement that Batkivshchyna and other members of the coalition are agents of the Kremlin,” he said.
Tymoshenko’s affairs
Ruslan Bortnik noted that Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin briefly mentioned criminal cases against Tymoshenko in his interview.
“Tymoshenko is playing her own game – her goal is to become prime minister. And the Petro Poroshenko Bloc sees Vladimir Groysman in this role. He is a leading figure. Shokin’s mention that Tymoshenko’s files have been lost is no coincidence. Being the President’s man, the Prosecutor General reminded the public that there are criminal cases against Tymoshenko. He made it clear that she is dishonest and that such a politician is not worth supporting,” Bortnik said.
Let us note that, according to Shokin, the GPU began an internal investigation into the disappearance of documents in criminal cases against the leader of the Batkivshchyna party, Yulia Tymoshenko.
“Not only criminal cases have disappeared, but secret materials – secret paperwork,” said the Prosecutor General.
And the People’s Deputy from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Mustafa Nayem, said that he personally saw more than a dozen volumes of the case against Yulia Tymoshenko in the house of ex-Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka after the Maidan.
“These documents, among other things, also contained materials about witnesses and persons involved in the murder of Yevgeny Shcherban, about the Kyoto Protocol case and “ambulances,” Nayem noted.
Bortnik considers these statements an attempt to neutralize Tymoshenko in the struggle for the position of prime minister.
“On the one hand there was Groysman, as Poroshenko’s right hand, on the other, Tymoshenko, as a person capable of reaching an agreement in both the West and the East,” the expert said.
Groysman instead of Yatsenyuk
The head of the Third Sector analytical center, Andrei Zolotarev, also believes that Vladimir Groysman is vying for the position of prime minister from the presidential team.
“The attack on Yatsenyuk means that the post-Maidan agreements of the elites have lost their relevance. Nobody sees Yatsenyuk as a competitor. He lost the opportunity to compete due to his managerial failure. They see him only as a locum tenens of the prime minister’s chair until the moment when Poroshenko decides to seat Groysman there,” he said in a commentary to GolosUA.
He explains the delay in changing the head of government to hidden processes occurring in the ruling elite.
“For the time being, there was an alliance when fools sawed off the legs of monuments, and scoundrels sawed off the budget. But now there is a reformatting. This is the tip of the iceberg of the processes that are taking place in politics. The president makes a choice between the role of Kuchma, who was the arbiter of the oligarchs, and the image of Yanukovych, who sought to become first among equals. And he is inclined to the second option – to the role of the main oligarch,” emphasized A. Zolotarev.
And Ruslan Bortnik notes that in such a situation, Vladimir Groysman is the only acceptable figure for Poroshenko.
“The second candidate for the role of prime minister from the presidential entourage is Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko. But her appointment will weaken the controllability of the domestic economy. It will be difficult for her to come to an agreement with financial and industrial groups,” he said.
Fate of the coalition
“Yatsenyuk is being pushed to slam the door and, leaving the coalition, resign. Without the Popular Front, the coalition will only be able to exist with the involvement of independent parliamentary groups. But the process of concluding a coalition agreement may drag on, and then the Rada will be on the verge of dissolution. Early elections are possible,” says Ruslan Bortnik.
And Andrei Zolotarev points to a brewing political crisis.
“If the coalition loses 82 bayonets of the Popular Front, the Will of the People and Revival are ready to join it, wanting to participate in the modernization of the country,” he said.
Let us note that Igor Eremeev’s “Will of the People” deputy group includes 19 people, and Vitaly Khomutynnik’s “Vozrozhdenie” group includes 22 people’s deputies. Now the coalition has 299 deputies, with the required 226. If the Popular Front leaves it, 217 people will remain, which is not enough for the ruling majority. But the joining of any of the deputy groups will restore the quorum. If both join, the coalition will have 258 people.
“Sacred Sacrifice”
Experts agreed that the prime minister will have to bear responsibility for the state of affairs in the country.
“Yatsenyuk is being made into a classic scapegoat. Society is tense, and the image of the enemy in the form of Putin (*criminal) is no longer enough to blame him for all the troubles. Therefore, they want to blame Yatsenyuk for everything. Moreover, sociology shows a drop in his personal rating from 30% to 3-5%%. And his party’s rating fell from 20% to 4%. This is not enough to get into parliament in the elections,” said Ruslan Bortnik.
A. Zolotarev emphasized: “Poroshenko is waiting for Arseniy Petrovich to absorb as much negativity as possible. According to the laws of political PR, a sacred sacrifice is needed. We need a demonstrative execution of the culprit of the people’s troubles. Yatsenyuk was chosen for this role.”