“They never lie so much as during a war, after a hunt and before elections,” this is the famous saying of the “Iron Chancellor” – the unifier of Germany Otto von Bismarck, uttered back in the 19th century, unfortunately, it is relevant for Ukraine in the 21st century in many aspects and meanings.
Our country has gone through another election cycle and is now again looking to the future with hope – will the political forces that entered parliament take advantage of the chance for a qualitative renewal, will the new coalition and the government formed on its basis undertake the implementation of urgent economic reforms?
Low social standards with a sharp rise in prices, job loss and the lack of visible prospects for improving the situation with a rapidly falling standard of living – these and other factors of growing social tension have already started the countdown of public trust. And if you do not immediately begin the promised reforms, no matter how painful they may be, there is no point in counting on an improvement in the moods of Ukrainians that are very close to a critical mass: economic, social, protest. From the very beginning of the Maidan, Ukrainians expressed their desire to move closer to European values and standards. But both “Ukraine in Europe” and “Europe in Ukraine” are impossible without fundamental reforms and comprehensive modernization of the economy.
A long temporary head start before the next elections gives a unique chance to the implementers of today’s unpopular reforms to still take advantage of their future results, restoring and even increasing electoral ratings. And the severity of the military situation, as well as the accompanying crisis in the economy in this sense, is a powerful incentive, because painting fences is no longer enough, no matter how patriotic the colors and slogans.
From the very beginning of work, we should talk about reforms aimed at macroeconomic stability – ensuring the country’s energy independence, improving the investment climate, introducing targeted social policies, etc. From the very first days, reforms should become balanced components of the country’s development strategy. Moreover, it is a strategy of advance, the individual elements of which are designed to form the synergy of its breakthrough.
Why is the lead strategy so important? Since it is important to solve not only immediate problems, the most progressive initiatives will certainly drown in their flux. You can, for example, philosophize for a long time about the time of the end of the ATO, the beginning of the process of economic recovery, etc. Or you can begin to act by carefully analyzing even a spontaneously arising idea, because what is important today is not innovation, but the present, the actual. What is important are ideas, inspiration and enthusiasm, everyone’s contribution to the common cause, no matter how pretentious it may sound. You must be able to turn problems into opportunities by providing an area of responsibility. At the same time, it is extremely important not to give privileges to certain political parties or blocs to form or slow down economic processes from the point of view of their own benefit. Only a proactive strategy that carefully integrates into the effectiveness of its actions real steps to overcome the crisis, support well-being and increase the level of employment of the population will help improve the economic situation in the country and begin its evolutionary development.
The banking system of Ukraine today is mainly concerned with problems of survival. The situation is really difficult: according to the NBU, the outflow of deposits has already amounted to more than UAH 100 billion, the foreign exchange market continues to be in a fever, although the planned influx of foreign currency earnings has a “plus” sign. The results of the three quarters of this year are still disappointing. According to operational data from the NBU, the volume of loans in hryvnia decreased by almost 50 billion (8.3%), and bank capital by 21.4 billion (based on the results of eight months from the beginning of the year). At the same time, the total loss of banks exceeded UAH 5 billion. At the same time, despite all the difficulties, the banking system in most of the country (outside the ATO zone) continues to almost uninterruptedly perform one of the key functions – ensuring money circulation (i.e. the circulatory system of the economy is working normally).
Today on the agenda: further capitalization of banks, searching for sources and tools for renewing lending and profitability, and most importantly, restoring confidence. Confidence not only of people in the banking system as a whole, but also in the entire government and its ability to really reform the country. The trust that is created by the ability to speak clearly about difficult things in difficult times for the country, as the 32nd President of the United States Franklin Roosevelt did in his radio fireside chats. It was his speeches that built a bridge of mutual understanding between the people of America and its government during the Second World War. And here it is extremely important to formulate and implement the same strategy of advance: how to not just survive, but live and develop in the new realities of the market, taking advantage of the opportunities that arise in the series of challenges of the crisis.
Today, many colleagues and shareholders of banks are asking the question: from what sources and tools can they earn money after stabilization? How, besides poaching clients from colleagues in the shop, can you increase your market share? Their willingness to seek and increase the capital of the institutions they own will largely depend on the resolution of these issues. Some of the answers should be formulated by the state, creating conditions and prerequisites for the growth of the market as a whole and ensuring fair and transparent rules of the game. Some of the possibilities are already on the surface. Thus, even during the current recession, many note the dynamic growth of non-cash payments and customer interest in electronic services. With the current dominance of information technology, the demand for Internet banking services is growing significantly. Whether it will happen or not – the generation growing up in this information environment is already willing to master such services today, and tomorrow will become their main consumer.
And yet, in our era permeated with IT technologies, we must not forget that human capital remains the main asset. The experience of managers in the Ukrainian banking system is invaluable, since over the years of the formation of the country’s banking system and during times of crisis, our specialists have acquired such anti-crisis management experience that it is even difficult to imagine where else one could get such an “internship”! And how important it is today not to lose this experience, but to use it for the benefit of the development of the country as a whole and the financial system in particular, capitalizing on the strategy of getting ahead with innovative management technologies and creative potential.
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Speaking in 1862 at the budget commission of the Chamber of Deputies of the German parliament, Bismarck uttered another famous statement: “Great modern issues are not decided by speeches and decisions of the majority… but by iron and blood.” The realities of the 19th century may have been such, but a century and a half later, in developed and developing democratic societies, resolving issues using such methods is unacceptable. That is why the plans for the revival of punitive states, dictator states, nurtured by the morbid imagination of neo-imperialists seem so monstrous. But these issues should in no way be resolved by all the tired speeches, because verbal populism is a direct road to the abyss. And here you can’t argue with the “Iron Chancellor”.
Dmitry Grijuk, Mirror of the week
